In Pakistan’s self-interest

Islamabad has lodged a strong protest with the US over allegations of the existence of terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistan and proxy forces operating from here against Afghanistan and India contained in the recent US Department of Defence report, Progress Towards Security and Stability in Afghanistan. Either we are really guilty of the ‘crimes’ we are being accused of or we have failed to convince the accusers of our innocence. But perhaps, there is a third dimension to this either/or conundrum. Perhaps, what we are doing in our self-interest is being perceived by our accusers as not being in their self-interest, therefore, their ire. On the other hand, perhaps, what our accusers are doing to counter our actions-in-self-interest appear to us as adding to our problems of somebody else’s making, therefore, our feeling of being betrayed by our ‘friends’. But, as they say, nations have no permanent friends, they only have permanent interests. Still, we do not think it is in our permanent interest to be engaged in a running feud with our two neighbours, permanently flanking our eastern and western borders and that, too, at a time when serious trust deficit seems to be adversely affecting our relations with the world’s sole superpower.

Let us take a closer look at our changing self-interests vis-a-vis Afghanistan. We had assumed, because of past experience, that like in the late 1980s, the US would walk away with the job in Afghanistan half-finished, leaving us to face the aftermath of the other dirty half. Indeed, in 2010-11, the occupying armies were being perceived to have all but lost the war. One felt sooner or later, the US would leave Afghanistan with the Afghan Taliban still unvanquished and Pakistan left with no option but to deal with a re-Talibanised Afghanistan. Therefore, Pakistan, perhaps feeling that in its own strategic interest it needed to remain on the right side of the Afghan Taliban, was seemingly persuaded to continue with the policy of not interfering with cross-border militant activities, including those of the Haqqanis. However, the changing ground realities during the intervening years and anticipating the April presidential polls to open a new window of opportunity, Pakistan effectively secured the Durand Line, making it impossible for the Afghan Taliban hiding on our side of the border to cross over and disrupt the Afghan polls.

Next, Islamabad seems to have read and clearly understood the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) signed between Afghanistan and the US. Declaring the US intention to establish its permanent presence in the region, the BSA reassured Pakistan that this time, the US was not walking away with the job half-finished. At the same time, the BSA’s warning that Washington and Kabul would work together to develop “an appropriate response”, against any external aggression perhaps, made the decision for Pakistan to go after the militants hiding in North Waziristan easy as it was perhaps, realised gradually by the relevant quarters here that the chances of the Afghan Taliban regaining their lost glory were fading fast. Indeed, the Pentagon report acknowledges the Operation Zarb-e-Azb campaign, saying it had disrupted militant networks and slowed extremist attacks in Afghanistan.

Now let us take a quick look at our self-interest vis-a-vis India. Here, too, we were opting for a qualitative change, but at a slower pace until the advent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under whose leadership it is clear that India will harbour a needlessly tough stance towards Pakistan. Still, it would be in our lasting self-interest if we played our part in dismantling private jihadi groups. These outfits have only succeeded in damaging our Kashmir case and have hurt the indigenous freedom movement in the Valley, and have also led to a sectarian and ethnic bloodbath inside the country. Meanwhile, despite the continuous violations of the Line of Control, let us not abandon our efforts to establish bilateral trade and economic relations with India as it is very much in our permanent mutual self-interest.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 9^th, 2014.

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