Under the weather?: Cyclone ‘Nilofar’ heading Sindh’s way on October 30

Experts say no need to panic because the cyclone’s impact will weaken by the time it reaches the coastal belt.

KARACHI:

Sindh's coastal belt is likely to be hit by cyclone 'Nilofar' between October 30 and October 31, bringing with it heavy rainfall and a thunderstorm, The Express Tribune has learnt.

Meteorological experts believe that low depression over the centre of the Arabian Sea will transform into cyclone 'Nilofar' within the next 12 hours, which will likely hit Pakistan [Balochistan coast] on October 29.

Officials of the meteorological department claim that the intensity of the cyclone will be considerably weak by the time it hits Sindh's coastal areas, including Karachi, Thatta and Badin. "But we cannot ignore the possibility of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms," chief meteorologist Muhammad Tauseef told The Express Tribune.

"The persistent depression over the Arabian Sea could develop into the cyclone," said Tauseef. "It will, however, likely hit Oman initially, before making its way to Pakistan's coastal areas." After hitting Oman's coast, the cyclone, which will by this time have weakened in intensity, will turn north towards Pakistan and then India.

It is also expected that thunderstorms will be experienced in Balochistan and Sindh's coast on October 29. "Heavy rains are expected in Karachi on October 30 and 31," said Tauseef.

Early warnings have been issued to the fishermen and communities residing along the coastal belt. They fishermen have also been advised not to go into the deep sea for fishing between October 28 and 31.

An official of the meteorological department confirmed that all relevant departments have been informed about the expected cyclone, adding that there is no need to create any panic among the people as they believe the cyclone will not hit Sindh's coastal belt directly.

The fishermen, through their folk wisdom, also sense the impending cyclone. They believe, however, the intensity this time will not be as high as that in 1999, when a cyclone had wreaked havoc along the coastal belt of Sindh, excluding Karachi.

"There is an eerie silence and our people feel there is something dangerous coming around," said Mohammad Ali Shah, the chairperson of the Pakistan Fisherfolk Form. He, however, agreed with Tauseef that the cyclone will not hit Karachi directly. "It will hit Oman but its impact in Sindh especially in Karachi can't be ignored," Shah predicted.

Shah said that information regarding the cyclone has been circulated by authorities, warning against going into the deep sea for fishing.

Recounting the history of cyclones since 1999, Shah said that the government had never been able to make preparation for a natural calamity along the coastal belt. Since 1999, Sindh's coastal belt has regularly experienced category five cyclones, except in 2010, when the cyclone was of category four.

"There is no proper rescue system in Karachi," Shah pointed out. "We cannot estimate the destruction if a cyclone like that in 1999 hit Karachi," he justified. He said that most of the hurricanes had always hit other parts of the province, such as Thatta and Badin.

The cyclones in May 2001 and October 2004 affected Thatta and Badin while in June 2007 and November 2009, limited impact was felt in Karachi. Karachi also experienced heavy rains and thunderstorms when a cyclone hit Oman in 2011. It has also been observed that the government has no management measures when such tropical storms hit Sindh's coast.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 27^th, 2014.