Decline in mercury brings drop in dengue cases

Doctors warn that peak season is in the spring while death toll in Sindh stands at 21.

KARACHI: Dengue cases are declining across the province as the temperature falls, bringing the peak season for the deadly virus closer to its end till the mosquito breeding season in spring.

According to the Dengue Surveillance Cell (DSC), 3,016 cases of dengue have been reported thus far of which 2,573 are from Karachi and the remaining 443 are from the rest of the province. The death toll from the virus stands at 21, 16 of which were in Karachi, the latest death was of a 19-year-old Jacobabad resident who was in Sukkur at the time.

According to Dr Bushra Jamil, chair for infection control at the Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH), the peak season for dengue is between August to mid-November and when the weather begins to get cooler, dengue cases start declining.

Consultant haematologist at the National Institute of Blood Diseases (NIBD), Dr Tahir Shamsi says the decline in cases due to weather change is almost 50 per cent, with the need for mega platelets dropping by the same amount.

However, joint executive director and accident and emergency in-charge at Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre (JPMC) Seemin Jamali says November is not the peak season. “Peak season for dengue is in spring when they breed. November is a cooler month so definitely the number will reduce.”

Meanwhile, AKU is still admitting a daily average of 10 adults with dengue-like symptoms of which at least 20 per cent require mega platelets. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a doctor from a private hospital in the city said that there were no awareness campaigns launched by the government which is why dengue cases nearly spiralled out of control. In addition there is a great deal of misinformation regarding the virus which is why people were unable to take proper precautions or are adequately aware of its treatment.

Regarding the use of mega platelet bags for which the health ministry had recently allocated Rs5 million, Dr Shamsi said, “Last week we used between 10 to 12 mega platelet bags a day but we expect this to decline further in a couple of weeks.”

Dr Shakeel Aamir Mullick, the additional medical superintendent at Civil hospital, says thus far 653 mega platelet units have been used but private sources mark the figure to be significantly higher. Currently 54 hospitals across Sindh, of which 22 are in Karachi, are coordinating and reporting their dengue statistics to the DSC. But this is barely representative of the near 500 hospitals and clinics in the city alone. The DSC issues daily dengue reports but data from private hospitals, such as AKU, are not shared every day but once a week.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 16^th, 2010.