A hint of elections?

Increased political activity suggests a hint of elections; they may be only 6 to 9 months away. But can they be fair?

Imran Khan wowed even the most cynical by holding a series of very successful massive public meetings in Karachi, Lahore and Mianwali. However, tragedy struck as the crowd was dispersing after the huge rally in Multan once Imran had left the Ibne Qasim Bagh Stadium.  While the civil administration must be held accountable for the seven who died and the many who were injured, the PTI’s lack of management contributed to the tragedy. It was an accident waiting to happen. In stark contrast to the well-organised Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), the PTI relies heavily on the mass spontaneity that Imran delivers rather than on an inherent capacity for organisation.

Turned off by the stampede and resultant chaos at Multan, the fairer sex may stay away from future PTI rallies. Otherwise, the increasing female turnout, even in conservative Mianwali, could be a game-changer. Whatever may be the voter preference, the twin dharnas in Islamabad have awakened the people of Pakistan to their fundamental rights. The PTI is planning a rally in the PPP heartland of Larkana on November 21.

With the debilitating last 60 days have eroded the PML-N’s capacity for governance, the huge event it is planning on its home ground in Lahore should still be a sellout. The PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, will kick off his campaign for ‘democracy’ on October 18 at the Quaid’s Mazar, starting “from the scene of attack on the convoy of his mother Benazir Bhutto (on Sharah-e-Faisal) on October 18, 2007 to complete the task that she had commenced”.

The PPP chairman complicated matters for his Karachi event by warning the MQM chief Altaf Hussain to control his “na maloom afraad” (taken by some as a joke promoting the Pakistani film Na Maloom Afraad, which premiered on Eid). Urdu for ‘unidentified men’, it is no joke. This term is widely used for suspected criminals, mainly target killers, in Karachi. Bilawal threatened, “Uncle Altaf, if my workers get a single scratch, forget the London police, I will make your life miserable.” The possible ‘MQM threat’ is a pre-emptive tactic, meant as a readymade excuse if the PPP faithful do not turn up in numbers.

The Rangers have painstakingly ensured a semblance of peace in Karachi. As a consequence of Bilawal’s rather unnecessary diatribe, the MQM’s Rabita Committee convened an emergency meeting. To quote the MQM’s Haider Rizvi, “Bilawal was reading his statement from a piece of paper, therefore, we will take this as part of the PPP’s stated policy. It was not a slip of the tongue. Filled with hatred and based on discrimination, it is an open-ended threat to Altaf Hussain. No amount of threats will stop us from pursuing our goal. The PPP has lost its popularity, except in some parts of rural Sindh.” There is substance in the MQM’s claim that the landowning class of Sindh is apprehensive over the MQM’s proposal for new administrative units in the province.

Chief Minister Sindh Qaim Ali Shah eulogised the PPP’s young chairman as a “fearless and bold leader”, who will go ahead with the meeting regardless of his own personal safety and security: “He has won the hearts of the people; this is a new leadership with a new spirit and a new soul. Bilawal’s direct contact with the masses through such public gatherings would enable him to emerge as the true heir of the family of the Bhuttos.” Claiming that the Bhutto enigma was still very much alive in the hearts of the people, Bilawal has declared that the next prime minister would be from the Bhutto clan.

Exhorting Imran to learn politics from the Bhutto family since "politics is not a game”, the PPP chief inadvertently gave away a political home truth. Imran’s PTI is the greatest threat to his party. The PPP’s hardcore workers in Punjab are defecting to the PTI in droves. The ‘Shah Mahmood Qureshi’ factor is proving to be increasingly problematic for the PPP in Sindh. With a number of provincial and national PPP legislators aggrieved with Asif Ali Zardari for sidelining them with his nepotism-centric policies, there could be serious inroads in the PPP stronghold.

The catch here is: can we have elections without meaningful electoral reforms? Community governance at the grassroots level is the very basis of democracy. Democracy without this is a sham. The legal hurdles deliberately created by the provincial governments in the local bodies laws make them a convenient excuse to delay the polls, and if at all they are held, they will only serve to install a system acceptable to the feudals. Instead of being independent, community governance has been made infructuous by the Sindh Local Bodies Ordinance 2013, which is full of lacunas and ambiguities. It has put all municipal matters under the control of the provincial government. And what about credible electoral rolls and delimitation based on a national census, not conducted since 1998?

A 90-day period for any caretaker regime will get us a continuation of the prevailing mess. Effecting change in so short a time is asking for the impossible. The incumbent PML-N may still emerge as the party with the most seats after electoral reforms, but could lose its absolute dominance in Punjab. Confusion prevails, with the PPP leaders alternating between ‘advising’ the prime minister to go for early polls one minute, and then asking him to not conduct them, the next minute. While the Jamaat-i-Islami has gone on record asking for fresh elections under electoral reforms, smaller political parties, who stand to lose ground in any future elections are vehemently opposed to them. The increased political activity suggests a hint of elections; they may be only six to nine months away. Can they be fair?

Published in The Express Tribune, October 16^th, 2014.

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