The other day I met a friend, who lived in Islamabad many years ago and was eager to know if the city had changed. Recounting the new features, which included more traffic, high-rise buildings and chaos, I remember telling him about one of the new features of the city — a noticeable presence of Chinese nationals. There seem to be more Chinese nationals in the city than mango trees. And you can’t eat and throw them away as they are here to stay as long as no one else claims to fill the gap left open due to the growing irrelevance of the US as a patron in Pakistan’s geo politics.
The Foreign Office spokesperson was spot on when she said that the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to India would not have an impact on Pakistan-China relations. Surely, what was not in the brief was the fact that Beijing needn’t worry about losing Pakistan. It understands that Pakistan is not going anywhere, and that whether there is a civil or military leadership in the country, Islamabad has little option but to turn to China. It, in fact, doesn’t even bother about creating employment in Pakistan as Islamabad dare not pressure China about doing so. Beijing probably understands Pakistan’s habit of dealing with the world through the prism of a patronage framework — you will either live as someone’s patron or vice versa.
The Chinese indeed have a free run of the country, which is more than what a Western patron could ever manage. Travel from Khyber to Karachi to find Chinese nationals in most parts of Pakistan now. In most instances, these people do not even bother to follow local norms or traditions as is expected from other foreigners. They seem far more confident of being beneficiaries of excellent state-to-state relations. We rarely get to hear about the negative impact of the free trade agreement with China or how it can be less than generous when negotiating deals, as is naturally expected from the relationship.
It is not very different in other parts of South Asia, such as Sri Lanka, where the situation is similar. The Chinese model for countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka is to exploit their need for investment in infrastructure development. There are huge projects conceived, such as the new seaport near Colombo, as well as power plants and roads that make the country appear modern, but at an extremely high cost. Neither Pakistan nor Sri Lanka gets grants. The work might be done against soft loans, but then loans are liabilities, which have to be paid back by the government. For instance, the new Colombo port/harbour reportedly makes little money. While the Chinese government is currently sustaining the project, which it bankrolls, ultimately the money will have to be paid back by the Sri Lankan people.
The Chinese model of investment requires building on the needs of a country at two levels. First, they understand that the larger south and Southeast Asia requires an alternative patron, who is willing to throw the money required both, by the greedy leadership and the people at large. The US may still have a presence in the region, but Washington may not be willing to invest resources in developing these states or bankrolling war or peace directly. China, on the other hand, has more resources to play with. So, be it the military junta and the monks in Myanmar, the family-led oligarchy in Sri Lanka or the civil-military conglomerate in Pakistan, there is money to be made through fulfilling needs of people and their leadership in need. Beijing has the kind of capital it can invest in such places, perhaps not like America, but more cautiously, and at places where it is guaranteed higher returns.
The Chinese model of developing its clientele in the region is different also in that it initially gives a greater sense of independence and a fair amount of confidence to the client. Ask around people in several states of South Asia and they will sing praises about how Beijing does not interfere with foreign policy. At least, its method is not direct and brash. It does not necessarily tell you who to talk to and what to do. However, this tactic totally diverts attention from the fact that the world is not dealing with a communist or even an ex-communist state, but a new neo-liberal design in which dividends are piled up in favour of the investor rather than the recipient. Moreover, this is a relationship based on a collusion of interests between the ruling elite of the recipient state and the government in China. Sure, Xi Jinping did not visit Pakistan during the crisis, but not because he intended to abandon the old regional ally. He was possibly deterred by the idea of not dealing with a government that did not seem to be in total control. Beijing understands that irrespective of the regime type in Islamabad, the next decade or more of Pakistan’s future belongs to China.
The issue here is less about Beijing’s geo political supremacy in the region and more about the inefficiency of these resource-deficient South Asian states and their inability to defend their rights. Even if we are moving from American to Chinese patronage, it is important for Islamabad to know its patron and negotiate its interests. Right now, we have little people-to-people dialogue. We probably have more knowledge of the Americans and Europeans (even though superficial) than of the Chinese. Furthermore, too focused on finding someone who might invest in infrastructure development in the country, we lack the capacity to negotiate terms of business beneficial to both. But to change the rules of the game, it is vital for us to discard the traditional myths — the China-Pakistan friendship has to be defined in more practical terms rather than through the lens of the superficial mythology of this being deeper than the Arabian Sea and higher than the Himalayas. It is a linkage in which both can benefit. If we can’t work this out, we may be heading towards building a relationship that will eventually taste very sour.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 9th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (51)
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@Hasan Bhai: I am a chinese national ,and I disagree with your conclusion, Most of the chinese is friendly to the foreigner, and We like Pakistan, and we view Pakistan as our closest and most reliable friend, that is the truth.and I wish Pakistan could achieve success as soon as possible.
Let’s try to respect every nation and their contribution. Today China is more acceptable than it was at the time of its liberation in 1949 and when the United States countered China and isolated it until 1970. Today China is the second largest economy by pushing Japan into the third position in 2010. China has a remarkable economy with 10 percent or more growth since 1978. China lifted 500 million people out of poverty. Is not success? Chinese are the largest investors worldwide and that stature would further enhance. They have the right to do business in Pakistan and elsewhere. Why Dr Ayesha Siddiqa is worrying of Chinese growing business in Pakistan? I am failed to understand!
@Fikree: You should revisit your analogy; never mind about the wise man Minh! The American military now has over 150 military bases in foreign lands including in Japan and Germany since a generation time. The Brits colonised India for two centuries and the Brits and the French as well as other European Nations occupied most of the rest in the world. It was the WW2 allies namely the US and the Soviet Union whose participation in the war against Germany was contingent upon Britain and France granting independence to their colonies. Wars do not carry a pre-determined or a recognise logic but has its own dynamics. India has on more than once neared to the point of provoking the first strike from Pakistan. Long term it has limited chances of suvival being squeezed between two nuclear armed armies.
Rex Minor
@s.khan: "Dislike" is rather an inappropriate word. There are at least two parts of any relationship when talking about countries, especially China and Pakistan. The official or government level and the common people level. At the official level there is a grudging respect as well as suspicion. When Chinese hackers go after JPMorgan Chase bank accounts or target American Defense Department, and do so quite frequently with either the tacit approval of officialdom in China (if not being part of Chinese government), that is an hostile act and may even be considered acts of WAR. Acts like shooting down an American satellite or forcing down an American plane (during Bush's second term) to land, those are indeed warlike actions. However trade goes on! At the people level, there is much admiration of America and its culture as the Chinese are rushing to copy and adopt American ways, including American shopping habits. If Chinese dislike America, why are they flocking in large numbers to American high schools, colleges and universities? Some affluent Chinese couples are coming to America so their babies can be born here and become American citizens (permitted under the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution?). Why are Chinese rushing to learn English? According to news this week, China's economy at $17.6 Trillion PPP dollars is now the largest in the world. So, China has to be reckoned with. But America is still by all measures the most influential and consequential nation on Earth and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
@IndianDude: "However, being an Indian, I should be glad that the strategic planning establishment in pakistan aren’t very bright." Instead you should not be glad since if Pakistan planning establishment aren't very bright they could be foolhardy and hit India with nuclear weapons causing mutual suicide. @The author Yes, plan on how, what, and where we need Chinese assistance that it does not lead to an "overland" neo-colonialism. US and Western "oversees" neo-imperialism is less likely to be permanent. This reminds me of what the Vietnamese leader, Ho Chi Minh said about Japanese occupation during the Second World War. He said that (temporarily) it might be good strategy to resist Japanese occupation even at the expense of bringing back French occupation (temporarily), since Japanese could be in Vietnam for a hundred years but not so the French.
@s.khan: The house of Saud sells its black tar against dollars i the world market.. In theory they could start trading in Euros and the dollar will loose its value as a reserve currency in many countries. Also, the chinese support the US dollar and are not yet prepared to abandon dollar or adjust the exchange rate of their own currency which could make chinese goods uncompetitive.
Rex Minor
..The Foreign Office spokesperson was spot on when she said that the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to India would not have an impact on Pakistan-China relations. Surely, what was not in the brief was the fact that Beijing needn’t worry about losing Pakistan. It understands that Pakistan is not going anywhere...
You have hit nail on its head. One thing that has always baffled me is the way the pakistani establishment (or the one's who are responsible for pakistan's foreign affairs and strategies) are always leading themselves to international blind alley from the beginning of its birth. Why put your country in a situation where pakistan is always at the mercy of be it USA, Saudis/Arabs or Chinese? The Pakistan never seems to have a leverage even when them sitting on a lottery of 'strategic location'. (It is well known that most of the people who win big in lottery end up losing what they had won because most of them aren't sophisticated/smart enough to retain what was a windfall from a lottery, as they haven't earn it.) Instead of becoming enemy of the USA/west and at mercy of the chinese, the planners in pakistan should have kept their options open. For example, notice how PM Modi has shown to be on good sides of Japan, Russia, USA and even China. This gives Indians lots of strategic and economic options. However, being an Indian, I should be glad that the strategic planning establishment in pakistan aren't very bright.
Very good article and so were many of the contributors missives even when taking apposing viewpoints. One can always learn from differing viewpoints. I have something a little unique, but like to think I am not far from reality. It would appear that Australia is going down a somewhat similar path to Pakistan. I could be brutal and say that Australia/Pakistan are puppets of the US/Zionist/UK trio, but both are following a tortured path of trying to please China and the US. Additionally, Pakistan/Australia cannot get their economic system for the 21st century quite right. They are both desperately trying to please the Americans, but at the same time understand that their economic well being also requires China to be onside. The conundrum facing Australia is that they are creating huge holes in the ground, which supply China, their best customer, with various minerals, but many of the Australian jobs are going offshore to low wage Chinese manufacturers, and many jobs are going to Asians who have migrated to Australia. For example, It is virtually impossible to buy a cup of coffee from anything other than an Asian restaurant/cafe, and all the taxis and delivery trucks are driven by men from the Sub-continent under contract. It would appear that Asians and people from the Sub-Continent generally have a good business sense. Also, the wealthy Chinese make one day visits and buy up real estate in the cities and agricultural areas like there is no tomorrow. Pakistan has a somewhat different, but basically similar set of problems. Both countries have serious economic problems, are torn between loyalties and are continually fighting wars. The main difference is that Australia has a higher standard of living and its infrastructure is superior, but whether it can be maintained is questionable.
@s.khan: I agree with every thing you have said and understand it as well. I was just pointing out the logical fallacy that because it has the largest trade, China is also a large importer (and hence a large export market for Pakistan). In fact, China's large trade numbers primarily come from ts exports. If you examine, Pakistan's exports by country, it will bear out what I say.
@np: "USA is the biggest importer."
Statistically it is. However, the main reason is the dollar as the world currency. Pakistan exports to USA it earns dollars, China exports it earns dollars. USA has to do nothing to finance its trade deficit because it can print dollars and give to the exporting country. If Pakistan runs trade deficit it has to get dollars( borrow) to settle. USA has been running trade deficit( importing more than exporting) for this reason. It gets dollars into as many countries and have them use it for all sorts of transactions. If dollar loses its role as the world currency, USA will clamp down on imports quickly and Americans will have to consume less. Viewing other countries as "patron" is a state of mind. China does lot of trade and make investment in Brazil and Australia but they don't consider China as a patron. It is high time for Pakistan to abandon the patron psychology and simply view countries for trade and investment. It need not be loved or love them. USA and China have huge trade and inveestment between them but they dislike each other.
@Dr Ahmad Rashid Malik: It is no fault of the author or any other commenter who is casting doubts on the Chinese patronage( not quite the right word used by Madam Sidqa, if the successive Governments of Pakistan have not exsuring Pakistan plained to its people that their survival was guaranteed by the chinese while the Americans had accepted Indian Raj in Pakistan. This gave the opportunity to late President Nixon to learn about the growing might of China. China is gaining wider acceptance in the world since it does not interfere into the domestic or foreign policy of other countries.
Rex Minor
Why we are trying to malign China and China-Pakistan partnership? China is the most reliable ally of Pakistan. In most difficult times, China helped Pakistan. Both countries' people are proud of this relationship. I think a new group has been created in Pakistan and abroad that intends to malign the Sino-Pakistani relationship.
It's Sharif family's time to mint money. If Western source is drying up Sharifs will tap Chinese source for funds.
The author has totally ignored the fact that Pakistan is a leader of the Islamic world and is the only Islamic country having more than 100 nuclear weapons and missiles. There is no way that China can pressurize us in any way unless it wants to antagonize the entire Islamic world against it. As a major nuclear weapons country, we are on equal footing with China.
Pakistan can choose to continue their slavery. Initially it was the British, then the Americans and now the Chinese! Pakistanis who claim their country was formed to safeguard the interests of the muslims of the subcontinent need to look no further than Xingiang, Tibet, HongKong or even mainland China. The Chinese perfected the art of war (Sun Tzu). Without firing a bullet, they will take over your country, while you are singing their platitudes in stupidity.
Once they are completely in the stranglehold of the Chinese, they will not have the freedom to practice their religion. There will be no Ramadan fasting, burqas will be banned, muslims will be imprisoned or summarily shot. Expect pork to be freely available in all the cities of Pakistan and restrictions of halal. Forget about Youtube ban, you will not be able to exercise freedom of speech. Let us see if there mullahs are able to do dharnas or run amok with their madrassas! Forget about all the discussion of language - It will be Mandarin, whether you like it or not. Last but not least you will have to synchronize your clocks to Beijing!
I am Chinese, and I feel saddened by the comments posted here. It is largely true that there is no country-country romance. But going that further to smear a people's image like Hasan Bhai did is totally wrong and, by itself, racist. I genuinely wish Pakistani people a peaceful and properous future with or without China's help. They deserve it no less than anyone does.
@Imran Hussain: visionary statement!!! Amazed at your farsightedness. 100% agree with you.
The article describes the situation of Pakistan possible moving away from the American patronage to that of the Chinese and outlines possibe implications and her reservations about some aspects. A good write up, straightforward and thoughtful too but with emotional touch. missing bit which is very pertinent and relevant as well. The Americans is a sinking ship taking its course which others have taken before them including the Soviet Union, the third Reich and the Romans to mention few. The Chinese finance the American economy with one trillion dollars cash and have a considerable longer history withPakistan than the author is aware of, Government to Government and military to military.. Little people to people dialogue as the author says is just beginning and it should be of great interest.
Rex Minor
Overall Pakistani economic policy is based on aid not on economic resource generation therefore Pakistan need aid or some patron. Although this aid based approach of economic policy need to be corrected yet no concrete steps have been taken in this regard. In the above article the writer said
we lack the capacity to negotiate terms of business beneficial to bothi disagree with this. We do not lack the capacity to negotiate but beggars have no choice of any negotiations. Now this idea is getting popular that America or western powers do not want to see Pakistan a stable country that is why IMF,World Bank etc give interest based finance on such term that keep Pakistan unstable.On the contrary ,although china give interest based funds but terms are not as lethal as of IMF,World Bank etc. i am of the opinion if it is so Pakistan should tilt towards china.That was an excellent read.
@ Eric Kumar:
You are 100% correct. Everything you said is exactly right.
As I said in previous comment, I am a well-educated Pakistani working in China. People would be very surprised to know what Chinese are really like. They are racist, against everyone who is not Han Chinese but especially against South Asians. This is a FACT of life here, and they see no problem with it.
They are really the most immoral people in the world. The USA and European people are much better, at least they have morals and basic sense of humanity. But Chinese will poison you or kill you even to make a small profit. So many stories here of poisoned food because companies want to save some money, so they use fake poison chemicals.
It is a real wake-up call. Chinese are not anybody's friend, we all should accept this reality and adjust our positions as well.
@asif: Norway has oil and people willingly pay a high level of taxes. Its liberal social policies allows its workforce to contribute to the maximum without excluding people on account of language , religion, gender or sect. Neither of those situations apply to Pakistan.
OK. At least somebody is building Pakistan! If we keep on doing dharna politics, messing up Islamabad, feeling below us to clean our own mess and then talk about VIP culture. Screaming corruption but doing nothing about it, reporting endless garbage on TV and print unlike this journalist who brought up an important issue, and then expecting angels to come down and build our country for us for free!
What an article!! I can't believe that a Pakistani write such an article and ET publishes it. Whom should I congratulate? I should congratulate both. Any developing country leans towards a power. But leaning is leaning and flattening to the toes is different. Pakistan is making a grave mistake by putting all its eggs in China's basket. Pakistanis will repent in future. This is an eye opening blog and it should published in all Pakistani News Papers. I agree with Mr. Imran Hussain. If SAARC countries wants to progress there is no avenue but to unite as proposed by M. Hussain.
Great article. I admire and respect Dr. Siddiqa writings. Right on point. But one point author misses. Given the chance any Pakistani, they would rather move or go to west or US. no doubt Pakistanis growl or criticize US they will rather run to US embassy if they can get permanent visa. Not to China. No matter Chinese are so called evergreen brothers or friends, How many Pakistanis are willing to go to China. Chinese culturally, socially, or religiously don't fit in with south Asians. Try move to China and profess Islam openly, the next is one ends up going to jail. What is happening in eastern China, Chinese are trying get rid of Moslems. Same is true for Christians or Hindus too. Question is ?Chinese in final analysis don't fit south Asians. Chinese are no body's friend. They are only selfish, greedy, self-centered, and covetous people. They go where sun shines and hay available. Once hay is gone and sun is not shining, they disappear. Pakistan be aware.
It. Is an eye opener article....this is extremely important topic and the debate must continue. Let us all try to collect data on total investment of China in Pakistan including heavy mechanical complex in Taxila. We have to dig into these project and draw conclusion what impact is there on our economy. Lessons learned will give us feed back to straighten our narrative.
"China is already the world’ largest trading nation and Pakistan should take advantage of this vast market." China maybe the largest trading nation but it is NOT the largest importer, US is.China thus does NOT provide a large market for Pakistani exports.
South Asian or SAARC nation has no friends in the world. These seven nations must realize, and realize soon, that their past, present and future are intertwined and they can't trust anyone except among themselves. It is high time that, especially India and Pakistan start working on a European model, and sketch out a plan that in the next twenty five to fifty year we achieved united India (all SARRC) countries as one country, one currency, one flag, and one army. If we are not going to achieve this or did not strive to achieve, we are going to live under the yoke of Chinese for the next two centuries, and it would be much brutal then what we saw under the British rule.
I live and work in China. Everything I am telling you is based on direct observation:
Chinese people do NOT like us at all. They make it the most difficult for respectable Pakistanis to live and work here, compared with even the worst types of Westerners.
I am not only talking about discrimination. They genuinely dislike and disrespect us Pakistanis, and their description of or "relationship" is completely the opposite of the foolish, stupid way we describe the relation between our countries and people.
Dont believe me? Go ahead and try to apply for a visa in China. We are one of the only country that cannot apply for individual tourist visa - must be part of a group.
Also, China is the type of country that you must really study its history and live here to really really understand it. The thinking of people is completely backward from the rest of the world, total conformist thinking of brainwashed people. There can be no compromise, and I really think that we Pakistanis should abandon all "patrons" and become self-sufficient.
Relying on China will be even more dangerous long-term than relying on USA.
I hope ET publish this comment.
In our country which is a Islamic and religious country needs to remember that China persecutes its muslim populations in xinziang province this year it went to great lengths to ban fasting for Muslims. Also it has banned Islamic dress code in xinziang. Hans Chinese are highest consumer of pork in the world. Reports coming from xinziang say lots of Muslims have been put in prison of cases of suspicion. So my Pakistani brothers Chinese are here to make money as they do in any other country. I hope the common men in our country reject Chinese patronage just like we are beginning to reject US hegemony.
China has destroyed itself due to unchecked industrial growth. The air is unbreathable, the water poisonous. Does Pakistan want this sort of future?
I think Pakistan should aim at social self sufficiency and responsible economic growth, similar to Sweden, Norway.
Well thought article, I am not sure how much ruling elite and army agree with his view
Excellent piece. I have no knowledge of how Chinese companies do business in Pakistan, but I have seen how they function in Africa. Pakistan, of course, is not Africa and has other resources. Nevertheless, the apprehensions of the author are well meant.
One wonders what is that thing that keeps china interested in Pakistan. Honestly though, is it same religion? No, is it same race? No, is it same ethnicity? No. Then maybe profit?
I will honestly give you my neutral opinion. 180 million population for bussiness is not bad. And no its not bad for Pakistan if Chinese companies are investing in Pakistan either. The bad thing is, 100% of these shares are of chinese. For example, in 20th century, Bharti Airtel when new, partnered with foreign company to learn how things work and they had shares. Now Bharti Airtel is the biggest telecom company not only in India but in many small countries too.
If chinese companies employ their own people and its sole purpose is mere to provide services in Pakistan, which is just the exploitation of the masses using superior technology which Pakistani companies lack and hence the profit made by the companies is going to China itself.
Humble opinion.
The US is a patron that wants internal control , China is a patron that wants profits and your jobs . Why not try the patronage of Pakistan . No investment US/ Chinese / Saudi ....... will come till you have internal peace capital runs away from instability. If you have a stable and peaceful Pakistan all these investors will be at your door you wont have to go after them . Right now they will only make the right noises but you will not see the money .
China is a far better business patron than Washington, hands down.
Author says, "...next decade or more of Pakistan’s future belongs to China."
We say, "current and previous decade or more of Pakistan’s past belonged to USA" and see for yourselves what happened and how things are.
Still looking for hand outs, help for waging wars against India. Where was China in 1965, 1971, Kargil wars? Why do you expect anything different?
Is it not time for Pakistan to introspect and to be a truly free and independent country?
The article is a bit alrming. Chinese economy has grown big and many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have developed important trade and investment relations. In fact for many countries ranging from S. Korea, Australia, Brazil to Indonesia China is number one trading partner. Pakistan should focus on China to increase its exports and attract investment in infrastructure that the country badly needs. China is still growing at the fastest rate and is destined to overtake USA as the largest economy in the world. Pakistanis may be fond of American things- music, burgers, jeans,etc the future is with China. The relationship has to be approached in a business like manner with dispassionate calculations on investments and prodding China for more export opportunities. China is already the world' largest trading nation and Pakistan should take advantage of this vast market. Sloppiness or casual approach will have Pakistan miss the opportunity. There is always some politics but Chinese are not known to interfere in internal party politics and they don't want other countries to do so in their internal affairs as Chinese foreign minister told John Kerry to stop meddling in Hong Kong demonstration. Americans are control freak and were happy to assume the role of a patron. However, it is misreading to view China as a patron.
Right on. Thanks for a common sense Op Ed and an eyeopener. We have no self respect and would mortgage our future to anybody who shows us some money. From the ports to huge projects we are all outsourcing to Chinese. Pakistan may renege and get away with the western loans and they are not going to use force against Pakistan. However, China is just on the border and they already have problems with terrorism coming from Pakistan. Let us not put all our eggs in one basket.
@ObserverUSA: Yes, there is likely a clash between IPPs and the Chinese providing "cheap" electricity. IPPs are providing electricity at exorbitant rates. They were given contracts at very high rates. For example, during the first BB govt 1988-1990 Hubco a British IPP was contracted to supply electicity at the rate of Rs. 5.00 per unit where the cost of the same was paisas forty only for domestic consumers.
@Freeman: I doubt that Chinese will even spring for $1 billion. US has been at the forefront of global developments' China is a minnow and besides its own backyard, it has no inclusive worldwide vision.
great article! Atleast someone in our country has the guts to open eyes and see around clearly. Today, we have become a vassal colony of china which virtually controls this country from behind. It has captured a country of 180 million fools, as we are selling our country by part to the chinese. Be it Defense, telecom, power, ports, roads, electricity, automobile, textile, steel, airlines, railways, you name it... our country is virtually controlled by chinese management and money. We have no guts to say something different to them. While our industries shut down, we lose jobs and the profit goes back to beijing, we sing sweeter than honey.... what a shame..
I hope some publisher will someday release a collection of tributes, platitudes and poems recited by the Pakistani leadership flattering their Chinese counterpart. It will be an interesting collection to romantic odes that once originated from these lands. Pak-China will take its place amongst Heer-Ranjha, Laila-Majnu, Shirin-Farhad except that it will be the first ever nation to nation romance.
None of the relationships we have with any countries are based on rational thinking. Just emotionalism and sloganeering. Obviously Chinese are aware we are totally isolated and completely at their mercy. Pakistan has no bargaining power in this relationship.
Nice article but still some thing misin in it but it shows how they worked any how money is thicker than blood and no friendship in pay back
A very well articulated and persuasive piece. Dr, Siddiqa, an academic type like Mr. Burki, is not afraid to discuss the whole notion of Pakistan's dependency on others and its often described but never examined "all-weather" friendship (always voiced in awe by ordinary Pakistanis) with China. But China should not be under any illusion either about the longer term prospects of a Pakistani-Chinese alliance. Despite the 67-year old patronage from the US and $50 billion in aid, very few Pakistanis have anything but contempt and hatred for the US. I am willing to bet that despite these negative attitudes toward the US, most of them will eagerly move there if given a chance. How many will be willing to move to China where the state actively interferes with religious affairs and brutally suppresses its minorities (e.g. Tibetans, Uighars).
Very sensible and pragmatic article
Sino Pak relationship is primarily based on two factors. Pakistan's desire to have a powerful patron to try to equalize the strategic inferiority compared to India. Chinese desire to have Pak card to play against India.
Push comes to shove which side China will take sides in Indo -Pak disagreement ? Will it be Pakistan with $ 12 billion trade or India with $ 60 billion trade with Chinese surplus of $31 billion ?
Pakistan seems to be hankering for one sided emotional relationship with various countries like USA,China,Saudi Arabia,OIC and UAE. This an infantile response due to insecurity.Relations between countries are not based on emotions but on realpoltik and interests. Pak strategic thinkers seem not to accept world as it exists .
'It doesn't matter whether it is a white cat or a black cat, a cat that catches mice is a good cat.'"(Deng Xiaoping 1904-1997)
It does not matter whether it is Pakistani Mangoes or Indian Mangoes , Mangoes that are accompanied by real money are good mangoes
Absolutely spot on! But for once, the author misses to mention India, when it needs to be mentioned.
The two countries (Pakistan and Sri Lanka) that the author uses as examples also happen to border India. Given the India - China dynamic : India is not strong enough to threaten China (neither militarily nor economically); but nor is it small enough that China can ignore it. So China has to take steps to reign in India.
In addition to the economic reasons the author mentions, there is a strong geopolitical undercurrent to the Chinese investments in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Pakistanis have, for far too long been under a mistaken impression, that China and Pakistan have a relationship that is solely based on mutual love and goodwill.
I wish, some one would have warned pakistan government in 50s whrn.pakistan was going in american patronage.
So far this is an excellent analysis on the subject. There are issues that the author should have addressed or should address in her next write up on the subject. These are: 1) Is there are clash of interests between China providing us with inexpensive or less expensive electricity through the power producing projects that are being considered to be provided by China in the near future and the interests of Independent Power Producers (IPPS)? 2) If so are the IPPs creating a lobby through pressure or political groups? 3) Is the recent Islamabad dharna even distantly related to thwart further Chinese investments in Pakistan? 4) Whereas, the CMs of Sindh and Punjab visited China recently as per their scheduled visits, Pervez Khattak, the KP CM cancelled/delayed his trip to China. Is that part of the game? 5) If Chinese investments that are being visualized actually come to fruition will that strengthen the present regime to the detriment to PTI and PAT? If so, could the politics of these two groups being conducted in view of that possibility, that is, in part? Answers to these questions seem quite important for the future of Pakistan’s stability and for economic progress. Will the author kindly enlighten us on these issues?