Afghanistan — the way forward

The Americans are to stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014, and Pakistan, previously opposed to the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that enables this to happen, has now ‘tacitly endorsed’ it. The Pakistan Foreign Office has made it clear that the signing of the BSA is the choice of the newly elected government of Afghanistan, and as a sovereign nation, our western neighbour has every right to go down this route. But has Pakistan’s Afghan policy really changed?



As a sovereign country, Afghanistan has every right to make decisions according to its own geo-political considerations, and it needs to pursue any solution that could lead to some sort of stability within the country and the wider region. While the US plans to pull out a large number of its troops from Afghanistan by the end of the year, the situation there is not even close to being peaceful. Pakistan knows well that only a stable Afghanistan would result in an end to violence in the region. But achieving this will not be easy. The failure to successfully include all stakeholders in an all-inclusive Afghan government, the Afghan Taliban gaining strength and the fear of total collapse of the administrative system are some concerns that might have contributed to Pakistan’s changing stance. Learning from history, the US would also not have wanted to repeat its policy of use-and-abandon in the region, which is essentially what happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Apart from counterterrorism operations, the presence of US forces will ensure that the Afghan security forces will continue getting much-needed aid.

While Pakistan now ostensibly seems to be focusing on following a non-interventionist policy in Afghanistan, cross-border attacks and territorial disputes, along with claims of shelling from across the border are issues that will come into play soon. However, while scars from events like the Salala incident will not be easily forgotten, if peace is to prevail, increased cooperation among Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US is a must. But we also need to see how Pakistan’s support for the BSA will be viewed by other powers, like Russia and China. While Pakistan should focus on promoting peace and an independent Afghanistan, it will have to contend with a lot of tricky factors in times to come.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 4^th, 2014.

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