China’s President, Xi Jinping, has undertaken a historic visit to India which many believe will change the direction of the relations between the two countries . The visit — the first by Mr Xi Jinping to India, which started on September 17, will give a new impetus to the multi-dimensional relations between Asia’s two great powers.
A heavy agenda has been set for Mr Xi as he arrived in Ahmedabad, the capital of Gujarat, Mr Modi’s home state of which he (Mr Modi) was chief minister for more than a decade. Breaking from protocol, the Indian prime minister himself received the Chinese leader in Ahmedabad on a day that was also the prime minister’s 64th birthday.
During the course of his visit, Mr Xi Jinping launched one of the two industrial parks focused on building power equipment, in Gujarat — a state that has made giant strides in raising its growth rate under Modi’s leadership. The other park in Maharashtra would mainly focus on auto sector development. A major component of the growing economic ties between the two countries is the Chinese involvement in the laying of railway tracks in India which has one of the biggest railway networks in the world. China will help lay new fast tracks for more modern trains in India. The measure shows China’s new emphasis on making investment in infrastructure projects and resources in the South Asia region in order to utilise its vast export surpluses — a policy that would help feed China’s industrial machine.
China hopes to invest billions of dollars in the modernisation of the Indian Railways. Both countries will sign an agreement that will pave the way for Chinese participation in the new rail tracks, automated signalling for faster trains as well as modern stations that the Indian railway system — worn out and clumsy —desperately needs. Beijing is also considering investing another $50b in building ports and roads in India — all part of an ambitious infrastructure development programme. Mr Modi, the Indian prime minister, has declared the project a top priority that is likely to boost economic growth.
The visit has also a lot of symbolism as the Chinese president is keen to revive the ancient silk route trade that connected China to India and Europe and in which the ports of Gujarat figured very prominently. But Gujarat was also an important opium trade hub in the 19th century when large quantities of opium were exported to China from Malwa (Madhya Pradesh ) in India through the ports of Gujarat and Bombay.
The new China silk route project aims to develop a trading network that would help establish enduring trade and commercial links between China, India and other Indian ocean and Pacific region countries like Thailand, Malayasia, Singapore and Indonesia.
The phenomenal jump in the size and quantum of investment by China, however, will not mask or camouflage the issues that still haunt the policymakers in the two countries. Three issues stand out: the unresolved border dispute that has also caused border incursions from time to time. Sooner or later, the two countries would have to address this issue in order to remain focused on promoting economic, political and cultural ties.
The South China Sea disputes over the many small islands have made relations sour between China and many countries like the Phillippines, Vietnam, Thailand as well as India. China is showing extreme caution so that these disputes don’t spin out of control and force a policy of confrontation that could involve the use of force. Because it wants to focus on economic consolidation it has no time or stamina to create a situation where its prowess as a great power would be used to intimidate or bully regional countries — a situation that would be exploited by the United States.
Then there is the old story of the Dalai Lama who fled Tibet in 1959 after a failed insurrection and took shelter in India. But this is no longer coming in the way of the two countries forging a solid and sustainable relationship. Despite the territorial disputes, however, both China and India have a robust trading relationship that has seen the volume of the two-way trade exceeding $65 billion. Although the balance of trade is substantially in favour of China, undoubtedly the two economies have benefited tremendously from the growing trade links.
A more strategic dimension of the relations between the two countries is whether and to what extent India could be used by the United States in its policy of ‘pivot to the East’ that is primarily intended to contain the influence of China — political, military and economic. The visit of the Chinese president that will profoundly change the politico-economic and military landscape of South Asia and result in the advent of a new era — one that will force a fundamental reappraisal of policy on the United States insofar as its new strategic shift is concerned. But whether the statesmen of China and India relentlessly pursue the policy of increased and expanding cooperation bypassing the many hazards that lie ahead remains to be seen. For India, which has recently signed a civil nuclear technology deal with Australia, the ‘look East ‘policy is paying dividends
The lesson for Pakistani rulers is that Islamabad’s strong and robust relations with China will not weigh heavily with Chinese policymakers in their determination to strike a strategic relationship with India. As China and India launch collective endeavours to reduce poverty and improve the living conditions of one-third of humanity, China will not be obstructed by its close relations with Pakistan. Foreign policy that is predicated upon notions of ‘importance ‘ or convergence of views on a few transient issues, will never be long lasting. For a foreign policy to be sustainable and beneficial, it has to be based on hard realities. No hard reality is more appealing than the interests of the masses. A policy rooted and anchored in the abiding interests of the people would work and deliver and help in bringing prosperity and stability. Rather than being overwhelmed by the achievements of the visit of the Chinese leader to India — its arch-rival, Pakistan, must also seek to normalise and deepen its relations with India so that in the course of time a China-India-Pakistan-Iran trade bloc could become a reality that would usher in a new dawn of immense opportunities for the poor people of the region.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 19th, 2014.
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@farhad shaikh: "but it is india which does’nt want to let pakistan see prosperous yes," Have not understood as to why India would not like to see Pakistan ? On the contrary India is aware that a well educated, modern and prosperous Pakistan will understand that exporting terror is a faulty policy. Foreign policies be guided by long term interest of the country and not in the interest of individuals or institutions.
i think you are unaware of the fact that we want to solve the issue but it is india which does'nt want to let pakistan see prosperous yes, there are flaws in our foreign policy but both the parties should have been agree to stepforth.
I came to this article rather late. Perhaps you may still allow me a few brief lines. It is possible for me to say that this is the right way of thinking where one’s mind is not slave to clichés and pre-conceived ideas. The author has written in an almost captivating manner and a freshness of approach which is wholly laudable. If a day comes when Pakistan and India shall be partners in economic relations, surely that day will bring great benefits to both the countries and their peoples. In this day and age when the rest of the world is racing ahead to great achievements based on cooperation and healthy competition, Pakistan and India are locked in a dispute which arose when Independence came to the subcontinent. One lesson of the present direction of China–India relations is that intractable problems can be put on the back burner while matters of economic and other relations do not brook further neglect. Equally for Pakistan, China, and India, the constructive path of cooperation is better than the path of confrontation and hostility. It seems China and India have understood this: they are now going ahead in a modest way with cooperation in various ways while the Sino-Indian boundary problem remains intractable. Both are aware of the boundary problem, but they have demonstrated that there is a future in spite of the boundary problem. I read this article as a nudging for Pakistan and India to put the Kashmir question on the back burner and move ahead with relations in other spheres, especially economic relations. If this happens, then the sky is the limit. Peoples of Pakistan and India will stand to gain. As economic relations move forward, other problems will begin to look small and certainly resolvable, given a right state of mind on all sides. Cooperation is the answer to many of the problems that these three important countries of Asia have among them today. V. C. Bhutani, Delhi, 21 Sep 2014, 1845 IST
I believe Author is calling for the change in nature and character of Pakistani state and people. As an ideological state,Pakistan will stop to exist if it adopt the policies recommended in the article which BTW also require independent and constructive engagement. Hope all the parties understand that in about decade Pakistan will be irrelevant in any economic equation which may develop in Pacific and Indian ocean Inc Arabian Sea as well between Eurasia and Asia, between East and West. Author have just given wake up call to the leaders.
@Malik: very right !!
@Zoona Ritu: Expectations evolve continuously as they are dependent on SWOT analysis of the world situation(Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) all of which are continuously changing as nations become strong or weak, gain or reduce influence with other countries, acquire new strenghts, etc.
A very good article in the best interest of people of Pakistan.However, the deep state is so hung up with the idea of getting even with India and insist on getting all their proposals regarding Kashmir, Siachin, Kutch etc to be accepted as per their desire that nothing ever can move unless the foreign policy finds space in fields of civil diplomats and leadership.
@Hoor: I agree with you many a times Pakistan civilian leadership has come forward to have good relations but but you are wrong to say that it failed due to "but India out of its egoistic nature and aggressive politicians have declined to do so." The truth is that the matter of foreign policy is not in the hands of civil leadership. I am sure where is the core of today's agitations in Pakistan.
An apt and logical analysis. However, the bottom line is that as long as the self-centred military is dictating foreign policy in Pakistan, no trade tie up or peace with India can ever be achieved.
@Rabia "...If they think they can be partners and everything is going fruitful then can anybody answer why Tibetans in India Protest Chinese President’s Visit? Police detain Tibetan activists who were holding a protest against China’s President Xi Jinping’s visit to India. Is this how democracy works? .."
Good point, other very good point is: ".. The Islamic republic of pakistan looks the other way, bend over backwards when its sweeter than saccharine friend, china, subjugates, discriminates and kills its fellow muslim citizens(and your fellow brothers and sisters). Is it how an Islamic republic works? Doesn't the pakistani muslim's blood boil when the muslim brothers and sisters are killed in gaza? Then why not for xiangjiang's muslims?.."
@huma: Don't think you understand the columnist's intent. He is implying that just like China and India can focus on trade and economics even while border issues persist, similarly India and Pakistan can have robust trade, travel and commerce while Kashmir or other issues persist.
Names have an impact on the discussion. The proper name for MFN is and should be NTR "Normal trade Reslations". The use of MFN confuses people in Pakistan, who think that some special favor is being granted to India, which is not the case.
China is practical and at the end of the day each will appraise how much business deal can be struck.It is the business which is the driver not religion or blasphemy.china and India will ignore border issues etc everything in the larger interest of good business because it will benefit both countries with their large populations and growing economies.
@Zoona Ritu: Indian government had never talked aout 100 billion, it is only media that talked aout that number. No sane person would say that 20 billion number is a small number for investment. Especially when it is in strategic areas of our economy.
@muhammad kashif iqbal: Please read the requirements for the plebiscite. The first steps for the plebiscite need to be taken by Paki stan which never took them.
Also please note that UN resolution only talks aout Kashmir going to Pakistan or India. There is no third option of azadi.
Well written Sir, but you seem to have missed out on one important point, China has expressed interest in working in the nuclear field with India.
@muhammad kashif iqbal: Mfn is an obligation for all members of WTO. In denying India that, Pakistan is on-compliant to WTO which India is being gracious in ignoring. Further in 2011 Pakistan committed to MFN in lieu of India withdrawing its objections o Pakistan specific duty waivers by EU. India did its aart, Pakistan failed to keep its promise.
IPL has nothing to do with MFN status.MFN status just removes government barriers to trade, it does nit force any one o buy from another country. Indian overnment has not prevented IPL team owners from bodding for Pakistani players. If they feel it is risky, they will not do so" o the other hand if Indian Bollywood producers are comfortable hiring Pakistani acors, actresses and singers they will do so.
@muhammad kashif iqbal: So what is the dispute that India has with Pakistan on religion? You seem to imply there is? India has 180 million Muslims also - hope you realize.
@RBia: Tibetans are terrorists? Wo has ever described them thus? No one except you.
@Author: nice article. Small correction: capital of Gujarat is Gandhinagar not Ahmedabad. Also China spoke of China, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar NOT China, India, Pakistan and Iran. Something to consider.
@muhammad kashif iqbal: Go read UN resolution and we'll talk after that.
@huma: You are again wrong. Resolution of disputes can not be preconditions. Read carefully the writer "A policy rooted and anchored in the abiding interests of the people would work and deliver and help in bringing prosperity and stability." It is unfortunate that those in charge of foreign policy of Pakistan are so hung up that they refuse to see the truth of real foundations of a sound foreign policy.
@Vectra: You are absolutely right, $20 billion investment mostly on long-term projects such as industrial parks is a big amount. According to what I have learned, out of the $100 billion, $50 billion was earmarked solely for railways, but Modi seems to have decided not to take the Chinese route on railways at least for the moment. Part of his reluctance may be due to the fact that he has already signed an MoU for this with Japan and he probably does not want to pit one against the other.
@AVPMPolpot: you cannot swallow this comment of mine. how can we co exist and thrive in such an environment. as far as legal requirement of MFN is concerned, this principal should be followed on Kashmir.
@ Zoona Ritu 20 billion$ is still a big amount and as far as 100 billion$ is concerned it was said by China's own consul general and some Chinese experts not by India,India was expecting the investment from China atleast similar to japan if not more along with Indian pharmaceutical and other companies easy entry into Chinese market and India got it as this will reduce the trade imbalance issue.But the more successful is on border issue talks where both hard signals and soft signals were send by India.
@Rabia Nobody called the Tibetans who protested terrorists, not a single person even implied that , let alone call the peace loving buddhists of Tibet 'terrorists' , except you. Where did you get that idea from? @Huma There is no reason to involve Kashmir in India-China talks because Aksai Chin , Arunachal Pradesh are the parts China is interested in when talking to India, not the Kashmir valley. Poor attempt ma'am.
@huma: " couldn’t agree with you more sir. therefore india-pak must solve kashmir issue as soon as possible." +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Completely disagree with your logic that a trade bloc cannot happen until the kashmir issue is 'solved'. Thats at least one lesson you can learn from the India China trade success story. Thats of course not to say that Kashmir issue should not be ' solved'.
" in the course of time a China-India-Pakistan-Iran trade bloc could become a reality " +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++== Iran has huge petrochemical resources, India and China have huge highly diversified economies ( the worlds back office and worlds factory as described by Xi). They have due complementarities to gain from close integration. Pakistan has Pillow covers and Bedsheets to offer. Make your own conclusions about the trade bloc.....
" in the course of time a China-India-Pakistan-Iran trade bloc could become a reality " +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ There goes Gwadar out of the window....................
@Jor El: " “partition of PAK indo subcontinent” !!! PAK indo subcontinent ???" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Mr Jor El thats what Paki text books say: when humanity emerged on the planet first there was Pakistan stretching from Europe to Japan...........and then Paki indo subcontinent.......
All Indians would like to say Shukriya to IK +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ By ensuring that XI could freely express himself without any ' what would Pakis say' pressure.
@muhammad kashif
Firstly, I don't understand your question. However, my point is that disputes can be addressed if the elected government focuses on the economic interests of its people first. That is what India and China are doing. Can you say the same about Pakistan and your elected reps?
@muhammad kashif iqbal: " MFN to india but PAKISTANI players cannot be part fo ipl. what do you say." +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I knew you would ask that:). Its a legal requirement for Pakistan to reciprocate and offer India MFN. There is no legal basis for Pakistan's claim to be part of IPL. Thats what I say.
@Hoor: " Pakistan at a number of platforms gave a good gesture to India so that to get proceeded with talks" ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Indeed in 1947, 1965, 1971, Kargil, Mumbai.........I think Pakistans gestures are not appreciated enough.
China visit to India appears to be a fairy tale which concluded with happy ending of heavy investments in different sectors of mutual benefits. But reality is quite different. Chinese President ignorant of Hindu language, but Modi robust tone on territorial dispute has well been understood. However, Xi played well to lower up the tones on contentious issues. Modi boasts on the successful Chinese trip but actually it is far lower than it was expected. The investment is based on 20 billion despite of 100 billion was expected. Indian expectations were quite high which cannot up to the reality.
@muhammad kashif iqbal: "partition of PAK indo subcontinent" !!! PAK indo subcontinent ??? is that a term u guy cooked up ???
@rabia : This was a case of preventive detention and not arrest. They are let off in the evening. No one branded the protesting Tibetans as terrorists . Bhagat Singh fought for the freedom of our nations and and did not cause terror to the public. He in fact surrendered after the Central Assembly incident. Your modern day terrorists harm the innocent public and mostly run away like cowards .
@Sun Tzu: IPIC ( Iran Pak India China ) for an epic century !
@sharabi:
please arrange plebisite as per UN resolutions, part of a map & AZAD status is not the issue. pundits are kashmiris, if kashmiris decide their fate who can stop them. will trade be run by the states. No state will provide an environment. ipl was influenced by indian govt. not to include PAKISTANIS in its additions every one knows that irrespective of the fact whether it is being run or not run by govt. PAKISTANI actors working in indian movies but they cannot be part of premiers because of .......
@muhammad kashif iqbal Exclude that kashmir from your map first(otherwise why you calls it Azad Kashmir?) May i dare to ask you that would you accept those native Kashmiri Pundits? because they have been butchered by strategic assets. And finally, first be able to conduct a fair Election in your own country after then ask from others.
":MFN to india but PAKISTANI players cannot be part fo ipl. what do you say." What about Pakistani Commentators? what about Pakistani Anchors? What about Pakistani Crew members? BTW did you know IPL is not run by Government of India
@Rabia:
"Police detain Tibetan activists who were holding a protest against China’s President Xi Jinping’s visit to India. Is this how democracy works"
I agree with you. India should allow Tibetans to protest peacefully. Indian citizen have a soft heart for Tibetans.
If we say that Chinese visit to India has been continued with closed eyes and ears, it won’t be wrong. Modi offered brotherhood to Chinese President very cordially despite of heightened tensions at the borders. He totally overlooks the sufferings of Indian Army at the LAC with China. On other hand, China became deaf when Tibetan protestors demonstrate few kilometers of the meeting point. What India got is far less than expected. India made everything to be fruitful perfect on muted progress.
@AVPMPolpot: MFN to india but PAKISTANI players cannot be part fo ipl. what do you say.
@someone: who are PAKISTAN and india to decide the fate fo innocent kashmiris, only plebisite can determine according to UN resolutions.
The author may care to consider the above and rewrite his piece :-)
Other side of this business trip: Indian Conglomerate Relieance awarded a huge order for two Chinese companies ZTE & Huawei worth $ 3.4 Billion, So it is going to generates jobs in china as well, Tata Motors British Subsidiary Jaguar & Land Rover have already invested 4.5 Billion $ in china & 1.3 is on the way. I have no problem with that after-all business is a two way thing
@Feroz..This is because of you people who are always into exaggerating the negativity between the two immediate neighbors India and Pakistan. Pakistan at a number of platforms gave a good gesture to India so that to get proceeded with talks and negotiations but India out of its egoistic nature and aggressive politicians have declined to do so.
@Flybouy:
does any CHINA and india have any dispute based on religion.
pakistan, china, india, iran trade route, and even Afghanistan. one cannot create any synergy between PAK indo and CHINA indo relationship, e.g. partition of PAK indo subcontinent has effected PAKISTAN 1) we were deprived from our due share from Military and financial assets. 2) Occupation of Kasmir and brutalities carried out by indian in Kashmir 3) Occupation of princely state of JONA GADH, MANAWADR and MANGROL by india. and this list will never end up. nothing such was done by CHINA when it comes to india. so this is not only resolution of bilateral dispute but buidling of confidence, will india vacate Run of Khutch, SIACHIN and all those territories occupied in 1971 war (gilgit baltista famous peak of 9042 which was in control of Pakistan till 1971). Trade and bilateral relations can be effective only once there is element trust which is absolutely NULL when it comes between PAK indo relations. Indians cannot accept our comedians in their shows how will they accept our products if trade starts.(Recently exhibited AALISHAN PAKISTAN show was another example to support my argument).
@Rabia: If you call Non-Violent Tibetan Freedom Fighters as Terrorists, I wonder what you will consider Violent Freedom Fighter Bhagat Singh as ?? Did you read your own comment once before posting, or is it just that the definition of terrorist is so fluid for you guys? Tibetan refugees are based in India and they are welcome to stay as long as their aspirations for Tibet are not met. India does not allow its soil to be used against any other sovereign nation. People have a right to protest as long as it does not create a law-and-order/ security problem. Tibetans are not terrorists and no one has called them terrorists except you.
@Rabia:
Those protesters were Tibetan refugees. Such open protests were allowed for the first time by Modi Government. Earlier they used to be stopped before hand.
@Ch. Allah Daad:
"That day would come sooner or later. There will be few speed bumps on the way, anarchists will play their dirty games but better sense would prevail."
Insha-Allah!
China and India are trying to show the world how to move forward, irrespective of border issues and the many differences. India has given refuge to Tibetians fleeing oppression, they can hold rallies and demonstrate but they cannot pick up Arms or use violence as a substitute for protest. Please contrast this with Pakistani responses in its dealings with India and we can get an idea where problems lie and why India will never have the same relationship with Pakistan, as with other countries. The refusal to come for talks is just a pointer, Pakistan simply unable to grasp the issue on hand.
If they think they can be partners and everything is going fruitful then can anybody answer why Tibetans in India Protest Chinese President’s Visit? Police detain Tibetan activists who were holding a protest against China’s President Xi Jinping's visit to India. Is this how democracy works? If you call Non-Violent Tibetan Freedom Fighters as Terrorists, I wonder what you will consider Violent Freedom Fighter Bhagat Singh as ??
Very fine analysis Sir. And a good vision for tomorrow. As @Parvez says making it work may appear difficult today but eventually this region may have no choice but to make it work.
That day would come sooner or later. There will be few speed bumps on the way, anarchists will play their dirty games but better sense would prevail.
@huma:
".....therefore india-pak must solve kashmir issue as soon as possible."
Agree fully with you, Sir.
But we should not overlook the fact that it is much more urgent and important for Pakistan to settle the Kashmir dispute than it is for India. India will be able to manage without it but not Pakistan. It is high time we kept our Ghairat aside and get more pragmatic and practical. If China, our all-weather-friend, gets deeply involved with the Indian economy, it (China) may not be of too much help for us. We do not have even a moment to lose.
@huma: It is resolved already. You keep what you have and we keep what we have.
And therefore Pakistan must immediately extend the MFN status to India +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ What do u say?:)
Excellent! and very thought-provoking, but will the policy-makers of Pakistan read it and give some thought. I am am always impressed by the analytical sophistication of this gentleman. Hats off to you Mr. Ambassador/Secretary.
you write: "...old story of the Dalai Lama who fled Tibet in 1959 after a failed insurrection and took shelter in India."
The dalai lama did not carry out any insurrection. The chinese invaded tibet with a massive well equipped army. The chinese held no referendum in Tibet about whether tibetans want to be part of post-1949 China or not. China acted according to the heinous "might is right" adage.
Can I count myself in the one third of humanity these two leaders are trying to move out of poverty? Being Momand Pashtun senior thought leader you ignored mere mention of Afghanistan in the trade block of Pakistan-Iran-India-China. Why not Indian & Chinese extracting Hajijak Afghan Iron ore & copper to build the railways & electronics across the region? Momand saib I am sure you dont want me(your fellow Pashtun) to be a suicide bomber(the only available job). With a lot of respect.
Business trumps ideology .... USA/China is a classic example. Sometime in the not too distant future India is going to have more influence with China than Pakistan - regardless of whether you use colorful phrases like "deeper than the ocean" etc. China/Pakistan relation is based almost entirely on the enmity of India and China - when that goes away so will the facade of the China/Pakistan relationship.
We liven in fools paradise thinking China will care for what we think of India. In some ways we are the anti thesis of China. Chinese single mindedly focus on buisiness and economic development. We single mindedly focus on squabbles internal and external. China is on the way to number 1 country. We are on the way to 200th country.
Enterance Type Question: Select the odd man out. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ " in the course of time a China-India-Pakistan-Iran trade bloc could become a reality"
Could you teach a bit of diplomacy to your petulant IK??? No offense but the guy has no software.
Excellent article and a good concluding remark. Focus on people, prosperity, and economy. All this citadel-of-islam and jehad stuff...will take you down a spiralling path of self destruction, while China and India watch from the side lines..
couldn't agree with you more sir. therefore india-pak must solve kashmir issue as soon as possible.
Good suggestion.........but to make it work is the hard part.