Pakistan is in the grip of yet another internal political crisis. The right to rule by the PMLN has been challenged by a section of the opposition despite its much trumpeted electoral mandate. Two opposition parties — the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by Imran Khan and the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) led by Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri — want to knock out the federal government led by Nawaz Sharif. The PAT also wants to remove Shahbaz Sharif, chief minister of Punjab, and institute criminal proceedings against both Sharif brothers for killing 14 of its workers and injuring more than 80 people outside its party headquarters in Lahore by the Punjab Police.
The PML-N leadership and their supporters reject the resignation demand, claiming that they have the popular mandate from the May 2013 elections coupled with the resolution of the PML-N dominated National Assembly fully supporting the Nawaz government.
In two earlier instances in 1993 and 1999, the PML-N electoral mandate and the support in the National Assembly could not avert the removal of the Nawaz government. The military played a key role in removing the Nawaz government and salvaging internal political situation. Now, in August 2014, history seems to be repeating itself. The stalemate between the Nawaz government and the opposition can be resolved either when one side succumbs to the pressure of the other side. The military can use its political clout to facilitate, if not impose, a solution.
The most important question is why the Nawaz government runs into problems after winning an electoral mandate? Why can’t its leadership work smoothly with its allies, maintain a working relationship with the opposition and pursue a stable and trustworthy relationship with the military?
Pakistan has a democratic parliamentary system of government but the quality of democracy is poor. In the absence of democratic political culture, the political leaders and political parties often violate the basic principles of democracy. The fact that two political parties on protest in Pakistan are threatening to knock out the existing political system shows that there are serious problems at the operational level. Pakistan’s experience suggests that internal peace, stability and political continuity cannot be ensured simply by organising general elections.
The election process should be fair, free and transparent. A large section of the politically active populace must feel through their experience that the elections provide a fair opportunity to elect the leaders of their choice. The complaints regarding the electoral process must be addressed quickly and to the satisfaction of the principle of justice. In the 2013 general elections, the PML-N candidates had a clear, and in some cases, a decisive advantage because the long years of the PML-N’s rule in Punjab enabled Shahbaz Sharif to cultivate a politically loyal cadre of bureaucrats. Their role in influencing other officials was strengthened by the widely shared perception that the Shahbaz Sharif government would return to power. Most provincial bureaucratic machinery and other ambitious groups wanted to be on the winning side. As the PTI was viewed as a bigger challenge than the PPP in the Punjab, the former faced more problems.
Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif are in the habit of running their respective governments as a personal and family business empire, appointing loyalists to key bureaucratic and political positions. As loyalty is assigned a higher premium over professionalism, trustworthy family friends or members of the family call the shots, creating a circle of sycophants around them. It has traditionally been difficult for parliamentarians to meet Nawaz Sharif or Shahbaz Sharif. The parliamentarians could approach the bureaucrats working for the Sharif brothers to get their share of patronage. This style of governance has alienated a large number of people inside and outside the ruling party. This policy also denied the Sharif brothers of sane and independent advice on state affairs.
Now, after the launching of the agitation by the PTI and the PAT, the Sharif brothers have become more available to the parliamentarians and adopt a liberal approach to distribute state patronage to sustain support in the National Assembly. They are paying special attention to keeping the PPP and the ANP on their side in the current political confrontation.
The economic priorities of the governments in Lahore and Islamabad were misplaced. These governments focused more on publicity-oriented projects like building roads, starting bus services, building overhead bridges, underground pathways, distribution of free laptops and youth loans. All were managed as personalised affairs. The beneficiaries of such projects were those constructing and managing these projects. Only a small section of the ordinary populace benefited from these projects. The issues and problems that hurt the common people most were pushed to the background. These were electricity and gas shortages, price hike, inflated electricity bills and personal security. On countering terrorism, the civilian government dragged its feet until the military forced its decision to start a security operation in North Waziristan.
The government was more interested in macroeconomic indicators that benefited the business and trading classes and affluent people. The distributive aspect and socioeconomic equity were ignored. It made two additional blunders due to arrogance of power. Firstly, Imran Khan’s demands for verification of electoral process were rejected. Whatever checking was done by the Election Tribunals strengthened doubts about the fairness of the electoral process in Punjab. Secondly, ill-advised use of violence against Dr Qadri’s loyalists in Lahore on June 17 eroded the moral basis of the Punjab government. Lastly, the federal government could not maintain cordial relations with the military top command on several issues.
The PML-N government’s failure to gauge the growing resentment at the common-man level enabled Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri to mobilise the alienated populace. If the PML-N overcomes the current crisis, it will have to totally review its governance and political management and opt for the depersonalisation of power, emphasis on professionalism and delivery of services in view of the day-to-day problems of the common people.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 25th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (26)
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Pakistani politics is very shallow, personality based, ego centric. Take out the name of Bhutto, sharif's , Khan, Altaf Hussain, etc. and there really is no political party as such. These names are all that the politcal parties have to offer. Pakistan has been turned into a mafia run state. In politics there are the same people, either in power or out of power. So is the same in everything else. The people who are in politics have proved to be failures. They have not delivered and they cannot deliver, because of their values, because they think they have won the "election", they have a mandate to do what they want. Pakistan nation has changed, people are not willing to wait. People are impatient, they cannot be fed on lies and more lies. They are quite sick and tired. In Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri the people have found that there are people who have the courage and the guts to take the government head on. A small dedicated people to a cause can bring change more than millions who simply sit and do nothing. This is what has to be appreciated and understood. Nawaz and Co. are simply not in tune, and they have not understood the nation needs, they are out of touch, that is why things are happening they way they are. Nawaz has to come out openly and say what is in his mind (that is if he has one to start with). Come out openly and meet Imran Khan and Dr. Qadri on the stage and face the crowd. That is if the man has the courage. If he wishes to act like a king, so be it, and face the consequences.
Rizvi received massive grant from the PPP govt. Is he getting the grant from this govt or not?
@talha: it is also unfair to run countries on the basis of family agendas
An excellent analysis by the author. I am a US citizen of Indian descent of Christian faith. It pains me to read what has become of Pakistan. Looking at India and Pakistan from my perspective, there is just no comparison between the two countries even though just 67 years ago they were one. I feel sorry for the people and the country of Pakistan, especially the minorities. I have many Pakistani expatriate friends who are all decent and good people. I wish the people of Pakistan and its leadership success. They have a lot of work ahead of them. I do not see in my lifetime that Pakistan can either restore its good name or become the country its founding fathers envisioned when they erred by partitioning India.
I'm no fan of Imran Khan or Tahir ul Qadri, but it's clear that Nawaz hasn't learnt his lesson after two failed stints and still runs Punjab (and by extension, the rest of the country) as his personal fiefdom.
The 'rigging' of the election would be somewhat excusable to most of the population if Nawaz had actually delivered - after all, this is a country that prospered under military dictatorships. However, he's already through a quarter of his term and hasn't delivered, and he lacks the intellect and resolve to turn things around and look beyond personal issues. I'm not sure how much better PTI would be (PAT is a political non-entity at this point), but the fact is that the writing is on the wall for the Sharif brothers.
Dr Rizvi is a well versed and prolific scholar and I highly respect and follow his columns as well as academic papers. I want to however, add my two cents in this interesting analysis since I lost the argument he is making midway through this piece. Granted that PML (N)s authoritarian and sycophantic approach to governance is a potent bone of contention I beg to differ on the reasons highlighted by the author. Let us consider each of these issue: Utilities - Electricity, water and gas deficits are part of a larger infrastructure challenge that emerging economies face. Needless to say they require long term planning, vision, foreign investment, development loans granted on merit rather than regional politics and stability that Pakistan has been struggling with since independence. It cant all be attribute to a single party on its mid-term. Terrorism - One wonders what kind of terrorism is being referred at, if it is religious extremism and foreign militancy than that domain falls under the armed forces. According to media reports the N-W operation was postponed during the last government due to complications with the Haqqani network (this is poignant indeed). And was it not IK whose emphasis on dialogue got him his mandate in KPK. On governance: The Pakistan bureaucracy is the principal means of governance for the country, it is heavily influenced by politics and power plays between civ-mit relations. It is a challenge that the country has been struggling with since independence. One needs only look at the UN human development index since the past decade to conclude that not much has changed regardless of the regime. Violence: the use of violence have been the most convenient tool of Pakistani politics. Let us not forget the religious violence that occurs against minorities on a daily basis. Even on issues that address global foreign relations where the nation has no clout over whatsoever.
Every Pakistani stakeholder is accountable in this crisis. We have a habit of creating escape goats for short term gains.
@Arifq: Just a minor and inconsequential point ,perhaps. "Go!!---GO!" is really an encouraging expression.It really means "go on with earnest'"we are behind you."The proper expression should be "go away" or "leave" if one wants the Mausoof to relinquish his position .Doesn't mean that what PAT /PTI people(or you) are encouraging NS.But some people ,especially foreigners ,might be puzzled as to what these people mean.Better yet will be to use some urdu/punjabi expression.
@SAMI: I think your idea to differ holds no strength in it.
It is always for the benefit of the nation to build roads and infrastructure. But how much benefit can Pakistan on the whole take from building roads in just Lahore? There are numerous projects completed in Lahore but have they actually benefited the nation? Being able to reach Liberty market from Model town in just 15 mins is a great feat, but what use it is if you reach there to find no electricity and raised prices because every shop uses generator and you'll have to pay for that. This automatically comes to the electricity sector. It is false to say that holding accountable Nawaz for just one year's performance is wrong. Remember, Shahbaz has been the CM in PPP's regime too. and PMLN was a friendly opposition. The PPP has completed 5 years and so have the PMLN's friendly opposition. It is the sixth year for them but only one to move from friendly opposition.And please do me and all the other Pakistanis a favor. Let us know where the electricity comes from on Eid and election days? Where does it go on holidays after such a short stay?
If this govt thinks it has come through no rigging means, why is it so scared to open only 4 constituencies as demanded by IK ? the tv program of Mr Afzal Khan ex addl sec ECP stand to expose all the issue of rigging....this is enough to open the eyes of the public who can now demand resignation of the govt till it is proved otherwise....
If Nawaz survives this.......he will think he can survive anything and will NEVER change......can a leopard change its spots ?
Good article;
Anything but Army
Nawaz Sharif never came in power except ' RIGGING',that is why he never survived as PM.
Well I agreed with the comments of Mr. Talha and Mr. Sami, bus services is not for elite or upper middle class the service is absolutely serving the poor and lower middle class and roads are no doubt is the important infrastructure required for progres of country and masses, many critics always used to say that poor will not eat these Roads, and else yes one can not eat these roads but would anybody deny the difference of travelling of poor masses in Lahore and Karachi, in Lahore it hardly took half an hour to travel for any destination on public transport and the unmatching convenience, does this saving of time resource is not helping the poors to work for more hours and to earn more.
"The economic priorities of the misplaced... forced its decision to start a security operation in North Waziristan."
This is very accurate depiction of Sharif's policies. However, another aspect that might not be visible to a non-technical person is the cost associated with these projects. Pick any project and one will find a Rs 100 job undertaken, executed and completed in Rs. 500. For example, the Azadi Chowk Interchange is reported to be a Rs. 6 Billion Project completed in six months, i.e., 1 billion per month of works executed. A construction engineer would know the strength and capacity of contractors in Pakistan. They simply do not have a capacity to undertake works worth Rs. 500 Million and that too if one consider to be liberal. Therefore, it can be said with great degree of confidence that there must be intentional swelling up of unit rates in this case in order to fill up the pockets of the concerned. Also, the portfolio of Finance in Punjab is held by none other than younger Sharif. Connect the dots please!
Excellent analysis, Nawaz Shareef is all worried and working for the next general election. His political vision encompasses nothing but how to maintain his rule and plunder money.
@SAMI: Living in the Middle East I have witnessed the rulers spend massively on infrastructure and now they are stuck with an incompetent populace that relies on government handouts and likes to relax rather than work. As a reaction to this issue, these governments have turned around their policy with focus on free quality education up to the Master's levels at International universities. However, as the population is so used to government handouts, half of the foreign grads have spent their Uni days partying and are returning to claim unemployment benefits now. My point is, transport infrastructure is important but it is a need that falls after Food, Shelter, Education and Healthcare. The Sharif's have yet to accept this fact!!
Sir, in addition to your comments the FIR being demanded by PAT and TI MUST be registered to ensure justice is done.
NAWAZ SHAREEF !!! Give the Nation ! Resignation !!! Resignation !!
Although I am not a big fan of political disagreement and Despite of all the facts mentioned in the article, i still believe that PML (N) should be given 5 years to work for Pakistan. This is third time that opportunists don’t want progress and thinking to ruined the situation.
Let everyone work for their tenure and they must be judged by the people in next elections on their capabilities of ruling a province/country. It’s not a joke to dissolve assemblies and waste tax payer money on some people wishes.
Dr Rizvi is well versed scholar and his analysis is very much respected.I differ with Sir at two points. 1.Infra structure development is the basic path to lead the country towards economic progress. We cant say that Sharif's project are of less worth due to the reason that they are being used by small strata. 2.Security issues and Power projects are the issues on which government's accountability in just one year is unfair.I think in this regard we are moving towards improvement.
Political stability is very much important to harmonize the development process..so we must stand for the cause....
PK is a country of 200 million, whose population will double in the next one generation. No single person or party can manage this country, and for sure it will collapse as a state if politicians and third umpire continue to make a mockery of the system. Pakistanis need to get rid of the messiah effect, and instead build institutions because IK or NS will not be around to run a country of 400 million people with a severely depleted food and water resource base.
Excellent analysis.
A fair assessment of the Sharifs. However, credit must be given to them for introducing "hiring judges instead of lawyers".
Go Nawaz Go!