Money supply in the economy shrank by 2.22% in the first 18 days of 2014-15 in contrast with the contraction of 2.02% recorded in the comparable period of 2013-14, according to the latest monetary aggregates released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
The contraction in broad money between July 1 and 18 was recorded at Rs220.9 billion, which is significantly greater than the negative monetary impact of Rs178.7 billion recorded in the corresponding period of last fiscal year.
Provisional data on monetary aggregates shows the currency in circulation has increased by Rs98.9 billion since the start of the current fiscal year. The increase in the currency in circulation during the same period of last fiscal year was Rs110.2 billion.
Total currency in circulation on July 18 stood at Rs2.2 trillion, SBP monetary aggregates show.
The contraction in money supply appears to be on the back of a marked decline in net federal government borrowings from the central bank for budgetary support. They amounted to only Rs12.5 billion as opposed to Rs156.3 billion during the first 18 days of the last fiscal year. This translates into a year-on-year decline of 92% in net borrowings from the SBP between July 1 and 18.
Growth in broad money remained comparatively constrained in 2013-14 compared with the preceding fiscal year because of a reduction in borrowings from the banking sector. Growth in money supply in 2013-14 was 12.53% as opposed to the monetary expansion of 15.91% recorded in 2012-13.
Net federal government borrowings from scheduled banks until July 18 remained Rs62.6 billion. They were in the negative zone during the same period of 2012-13, with the government retiring Rs104.4 billion.
SBP data shows banks’ credit to the private sector increased significantly in 2013-14. Credit to the private sector was Rs383.9 billion in contrast with negative Rs19 billion in 2012-13.
Credit to the private sector touched a six-year high in the last fiscal year, according to the latest Economic Survey of Pakistan.
In the first 18 days of 2014-15, however, private-sector credit remained in the negative territory (Rs86.3 billion). In contrast, the private sector had returned Rs77.6 billion in the comparable 18-day period of 2013-14.
According to the auction calendar for market treasury bills, the federal government aims to borrow Rs700 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2014-15. Separately, it plans to raise another Rs300 billion through sale of long-term Pakistan Investment Bonds.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 1st, 2014.
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