Economy with the truth

The federal government recently trumpeted the bugle of economic turnaround by unveiling the figure of growth for the recently-concluded fiscal year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the most widely used measure of a nation’s economic output, stood at 4.1 per cent, so said the government. Independent think tanks, however, doubted the number and took it with a pinch of salt. According to their calculations, the growth rate appeared pegged on the lower side. Their opinion seems to have been vindicated by the government’s own admission that the economic growth for the outgoing year is expected to be 3.3 per cent.



The confession is made not before the public or parliament, but before the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global lender of last resort. It submitted the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) to the IMF on June 19, which mentions the ‘actual’ figure of growth. One can understand the compulsion of a government to portray a rosy picture of its performance in all spheres of governance. A poor showing will definitely leave a blot on its record. That probably explains why the government appears to be getting economical with the truth. It need not have to. For there have been factors which worked to throw the economy down in the dumps. Some of those negative factors were well beyond its control, the country at war with militants being one of them. So the PML-N can rest assured, that its electorate will see the point if it truthfully tells them the circumstances under which its economic performance had been below the mark.

Now that the military has launched a decisive offensive against militants in North Waziristan, the conditions in the country will hopefully become conducive to growth of business, exports and investment. With the elimination of militancy, the government could launch new initiatives to boost the economy and bring a real turnaround. That should be the time it could rightfully boast it had lifted the economy. There is no denying the fact that the country needs a higher growth rate to accommodate its youth graduating from campuses every year in the job market. Let us hope the country’s industry and services sector flourishes, so that this youth bulge is absorbed.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 12^th, 2014.

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