Statistical practices

PBS have discarded the policy of releasing national accounts at the end of every three months of the fiscal year.

Critics often bristle at the idea of IMF dictating Pakistan what it must do to keep its fiscal house in order. Oftentimes the censure is well grounded and justified, as the country is seen yielding to its diktat and compromising the interest of the public. Yet some of its advice is inherently in the interest of the country and must not be frowned upon. A case in point is its guidelines on ensuring good statistical practices.

One cannot overemphasise the need to ensure the economic numbers Pakistan projects at international forums are credible and trustwort hy, without a hint of there being a case of figure-fudging. To that end, the IMF’s guidelines are well worth following. It was under these guiding principles that the country is required to announce its growth numbers on a quarterly basis. But in a clear deviation from this set procedure, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) is reported to have discarded the policy of releasing national accounts at the end of every three months of the fiscal year. This is a measure in conflict not only with the IMF’s guidelines, but also with a policy decision made by the PBS’s council itself. If the PBS persists with its decision, we will not get to know the third quarter (January-March) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The announcement of the quarterly GDP growth number was due on June 30 as per a decision of PBS’s governing council, which is headed by finance minister Ishaq Dar. Subsequently, the PBS has decided to release the final number of GDP growth for the fiscal year 2013-14 in October, according to a PBS official. The governing council had taken a policy decision that unlike the past practice of preparing annual accounts, the PBS would prepare quarterly national accounts.

In 2012, the IMF had asked Pakistan to bring its special data dissemination standards on a par with international requirements by ensuring quarterly reporting of economic growth statistics. The guidelines were aimed at addressing the issue of transparency, timelines, accuracy and reliability of official data. It will be in the fitness of things that the statistical body reverses its decision and sticks to the original guidelines.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 5^th, 2014.

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