Pakistan is ranked 10th on the annual Failed States Index, renamed this year as the ‘Fragile States Index’, a survey carried out by the Fund for Peace, a Washington-based research organisation.
Pakistan ranks just above Zimbabwe and Iraq, while South Sudan tops the index of fragile states. Afghanistan is ranked 7th on the list while India ranks 81.
In 2013, Pakistan ranked 13th on the index, which collates data from 12 indicators including demographic pressures, refugees and internally displaced persons, group grievance, human flight and brain drain, uneven economic development, poverty and economic decline.
The index categorises countries according to a spectrum of warnings, ranging from ‘very high alert’ to ‘very sustainable’ – Pakistan is described as state on ‘high alert’.
“Pakistan began 2013 on a promising note,” a statement from the Fund explains, but “one year later, the atmosphere of optimism that surrounded the elections is fading fast.” Sectarian violence, attacks on minority groups particularly in Balochistan, the failed peace talks between the government and the Taliban, and obstacles faced by humanitarian aid workers and health officials in the battle against polio are considered while categorising Pakistan as ‘very fragile’. However, the statement adds, “Pakistan moved up the list since 2013 not because of the worsening of its own scores but the improvement of others around it.”
“We won’t be seeing any countries turning their economies around overnight if they are facing demographic pressures or have huge political concerns, like corruption or human rights abuse,” remarked the Fund’s Executive Director Krista Hendry.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 28th, 2014.
COMMENTS (65)
Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
For more information, please see our Comments FAQ
Meanwhile, IK to take Pakistan to a still worse situation, is spewing hatred towards institutions in his speeches. With such politicians, there seems very little future for Pakistan. A shame, as it has an excellent civil society, peoples who when they immigrate, do extremely well against all odds, in short, hard working and with good sense....
@Eric Kumar and the other Indians who state this as a fact
I live in the States and travel globally for work. I have yet to meet ONE Pakistani in the diaspora who either wished they were Indian or introduced themselves as Indian
Just saying..................
@Asad@NYC: "after all Pakistan is a potential failed state?" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sir I do not understand why do u use the word potential?
@Sharjeel Ashraf: Under the funding section you can find how UN gets its fund. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations
Best of luck in living in ignorance then.
@SEAsian: "Pakistan should merge with Afghanistan and create an Afpak state" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Wow as a corrollary there would be AfPak Taliban!
@Zog: "Do not agree about Pakistan being fragile. It is one of the most strongest states in the world." ++++++++++++++++++++++++ Also english grammar is very strong.
" On ‘high alert’: Pakistan listed 10th on fragile states index" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ How can a nuclear power be fragile?
@vinsin: Its an independent org. Do you know what 'independent' means? The report if compiled by UN would have been on UNs website. On a second thought if we say it is funded by UN. Don't you know who funds UN? Check your facts pls. And ah yes, Ignorance is said to be a bliss in this age of internet.
@Sharjeel Ashraf: It is an UN funded report. Why in the age of internet, this ignorance?
@Xman: Why do you Indians have so much time on your hands to spend time on a Pakistani paper - after all Pakistan is a potential failed state?
I dont believe that Pakistan will collapse. It will just drag on like now. Not sure which is worse. Sudden collapse or slow death.
This is a conspiracy by RAW, CIA & MOSSAD to malign Pakistan.
Good thing Pakistanis and Indians discussing poverty and fragility on this forum rather than nuclear weapons or military fire power. Pakistan is certainly not as fragile as Iraq yet but obviously it must not ignore the wake up call. If Pakistani military was to lose against militants (not directly but by failing to provide security structures after ridding FATA of militants), then it will be in a precarious situation. Watch this space.
@Sadia: The apostle of non violence Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan was made into a villain by the Pakistani authorities after 1947 because he opposed Partition and had the courage to say "this sounds the death knell of Pashtuns, who have been thrown to the wolves". What happened to Pashtuns and their lands since 1947 does not need elaboration. You have to be a real dreamer to believe that Badshah Khan, Buddha or Gandhi would have survived, leave aside being born in Pakistan. They would have joined the list of disappeared or else killed by the Power elites or their proxies, like BB was.
The next bad news for Pakistan is that it might be declared a terrorist state soon. US has issued a warning recently stating "Islamabad must end its assistance to militants in Kashmir and Afghanistan if the country is to avoid being declared a 'terrorist state' by Washington". After being declared as a terrorist state, the country would face mandatory sanctions ie cutting of aid from international financial organisations, cancellation of tax concessions in export, imposition of tariffs, cutting of aid of its nuclear programmes etc.
.
Dude its an American NGO. Most of the analysis is based on the security situation and the volatile condition of the government.
Not to be afraid. It can be biased.
Pakistan should merge with Afghanistan and create an Afpak state. Both nations share the same vision. They should introduce Sharia and live in the way that makes the citizens happy.
@Xman: Two-Nation Theory is the BEST thing that happened to India. Might be your opinion but a majority of Indians will tell you that our forefathers did Indians a favor by bifurcating India.
@Sadia: Pakistan mmilitary needs more land to build cantonenments to accomodate them!
Rex Minor
@ Indian reader:
India's national poverty level is taken at Rs. 27 a day, whereas the international level is $1.25 a day. So India's national poverty level is not a good measure for measuring poverty in international terms:
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/not-poor-at-rs-27-a-day-plan-panel-s-latest-report-396266
@tung: there are 12 socioeconomic indicators. As expected China is indeed ahead of India in some areas including economy but not in others. Where Iraq is concerned this ranking I am sure does not reflect the post-Isis events or for that matter the operation in NWA and impact on refugees/IDP.
http://ffp.statesindex.org/rankings-2014
No survey is perfect and all have their own biases no doubt but this is one of the better constructed surveys as it uses millions of published datapoints and incorporates into 12 indicates and about a 100 sub indicators. and using it for what it is worth is desirable rather than either getting defensive as you are or complacent as @Economist is.
I am yet to see one author writing what Pakistan can contribute positively rather than destructively. I am yet to hear from one Pakistani TV anchor, analyst the same. Pakistan's value lies only in its destruction. If educated are these types, imagine what the uneducated would be. Even the educated class cannot think of how Pakistan can benefit from benefiting others. They can lose both eyes, happily, if they can make the other person lose one eye.
My stemmed, highly, and well educated colleagues from Pakistan when asked by Americans where they come from would answer they are from India. When asked when they visited their homeland, answer will be what for ?. Considering the situation at airports, war and what is happening in the country, they are very scared to visit Pakistan.
Waziristan is probably lost. Balochistan wants to secede. Sindh and Punjab do have people with secessionist agenda. We have cleverly forgotten that Bangladesh used to be part of Pakistan. Yet we would like to have Kashmir!. When we don't know what to do with existing land mass what good is going to happen with any additional land? Foolish pride, unnecessary obsession and religious fanaticism are the items driving Pakistan towards an existential crisis. I wish people like Budhha, Gandhi and Gaffar Khan reincarnate somewhere in Pakistan.
@John B: Pakistan has one of the largest army in world, who are regulary trained to use their back bone and not their brain! Does this not explain what your long winded narrative tried to say.
Rex Minor
When I read last night I knew the comments flying above will be discussed. But, here are the facts: 1. PAK just came through one full term democratic government; the second one is faced with political and internal security threats. 2. Institutional capacity and independence of govt have not been matured. 3. The IDP are refused entry into other states of PAK- freedom of movement is the hall mark of a stable nation 4. PAK has a lot of work to do on the IDP and law and order in the next ten years-consume resources. 5. PAK Isis franchise is brewing and no one seems to recognize that threat. 6. PAK is not at peace with her neighbors-waste of resources and economic potential. 7. PAK agricultural and industrial output is stagnant for number of internal reasons. 8. PAK manpower resources for the future are not adequate-who are going to replace the old people ( scientists, doctors, writers, teachers, philosophers, politicians, artists, etc) when they die, say, in thirty years? 9. Will the future conscripts in the army at lower and mid level will be free from the extremists' view of religion and stay neutral. - doubtful of that.
On these issues PAK is a weak. However, PAK is not going to collapse, unless the internal Jihadis upset the apple cart.
But to resolve the above issues it will take another 15 -20 years of constant focused attention, which no one seem to care. By PAK admission, PAK will resolve 30% of its energy shortage only by 2025, if all goes according to plan. So, the next ten years are the challenging time, and the IDP of the present action will consume lot of resources.
Punjab and Sindh alone are not PAK. But at present, only these two provinces are actively represented and progressing. Which is not a good sign for a growing nation.
@Funny: Thanks, but I wasn't sure if people would get it but I accept, my bad.
@Syed Haider: For India, the poverty rate was 41.6% in 2012
Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population)
21.9% in 2012 29.8% in 2010 37.2% in 2005 45.3% in 1994
http://data.worldbank.org/country/india
@BruteForce: The figure I quoted is also of year 2012, and not 2006, dude. Get it check again, you are missing the point. The other thing is that all the agencies be it IMF, WB, ADP have different poverty ratio for different countries. Whom you can trust is the real question. The other thing is that there is huge gap in poverty figures if you take 1.00 USD as the bare minimum as the lowest common denominator, and the poverty figure looks respectful, but when you raise it to 1.25 USD then there is a sudden surge of many million people below poverty level. The Indian government figures can't be correct as they have taken the bare minimum Rs. 27 and people earning above it is classified as above poverty level.
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/not-poor-at-rs-27-a-day-plan-panel-s-latest-report-396266
@Ayesha Qadri: Time has come to take a fresh look at Two Nation Theory. For new logic please check the following link
http://tarekfatah.com/jinnahs-orphans/ Hope you can see it in new light. Thanks
For India, the poverty rate was 41.6% in 2005, and 32.7% in 2010:
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/IND
For Pakistan, it was 22.6% in 2006, and 21% in 2008:
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/PAK
@SS Your comment on the map is a good one. You spoiled the effect by giving a hint.why? It is obvious.
I think such news items only provide ammo to Indian commentators here. Coming to the Fragile State Index, the data is, I am sure, taken from our newspapers and private TV channels. Pakistan is here to stay insha Allah and all doomsayers will be disappointed. Things are not good I agree but to say that Pakistan is doing worse than many African and Asian states is completely wrong.
@indian reader: Almost 50 percent of Kashmir is with Pakistan. Don't believe in the maps shown in India. Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir is in Pakistan control. Aksai chin is in China's control(The indian maps shows otherwise). Just Google image and look at the International maps and not Indian government maps.
@S. Ahmed: Defense strength cannot be a guarantor against State failure. Nobody is talking about conquering countries here, those days long gone. Have you forgotten what happened to the Soviet Union which had the Worlds most powerful Military and largest stockpile of Nuclear Weapons. Since it could not afford to maintain this powerful Military machine it collapsed. Countries fail due to internal schisms, please read a bit on what events happened in 1971.
@Gp65: Go through S. Ahmed reply with facts and figures. The problem with such reports are that they don't do a SWOT analysis. They just take out the weak points and jumbles and jot them together to come up with a report, They don't look at the strength of a country that is security through strong defense(6th largest army in the world), food security( Pakistan is food sufficient in all the staple items plus), big resilient/cohesive population of 190 million people(take out a few thousand TTP people). Strong entrepreneurship of the people, quite big land mass( India has twice the population density as Pakistan, Pakistan has four times the land mass of Bangladesh with almost the same population).
@BruteForce: From the same WB source which you quoted Pakistan poverty ratio has declined to 22 percent. Why are you giving two different sources for a single subject. Pick the same yardstick in both India and Pakistan.
http://data.worldbank.org/country/pakistan
You know this magazine is worthless when it places pakistan below iraq and syria and many war ravaged african countries. Moreover when it places china below india u knw for sure something is really wrong with it
@Xman: Two Nation Theory is a reality, the same is proven not once but several times since the birth of Pakistan: If you have a deep eye and a ear on what's happening on the other side of the boarder, since inception, your views should have been different. Visionary poet and Quaid of the Nation were crystal clear for what they were striving for.
@ Patriot. N
Refuges and IDP’s is only one of a dozen variables that go to derive the fragile state score. Your assumption that “Once …………… the IDP’s returns” Pakistan’s “status will improve” is plain wrong.
@Economist: Not true. Economy is one of 12 parameters. India scores moderate on 6 parameters and weak on 6 others. http://ffp.statesindex.org/2014-india
@Patriot. N: Not true that IDP is the primary reason for the poor score. In fact there are a total of 12 parameters of which Pakistan is rated as weak in 4 parameters and poor in 8 (weak is worse than poor). Also there are at least 3 paramaters where Pakistan scores worse than the refugee. http://ffp.statesindex.org/2014-pakistan
David Kilcullen (an Australian) working for US military, predicted in 2009 that Pakistan will collapse in 6 months! So, challenges aside, I will not put much faith in this report. It does, however, make Indian trolls happy. Good for them.
@Ayesha Qadri: Not sure if you are serious or are being sarcastic. On the other side the two nation theory indeed turned out to be TNT and a very bad nightmare.
@Xman: Not sure of the cult worship but the Indian Muslims have suddenly started believing in Two Nation Theory and oppose secular state and laws even though Congress was very clear at the time of Independence that India will be a secular state in context of partition.
@Patriot check world bank site 21.9 and pak has no data from 2006 http://data.worldbank.org/country/india
@Patriot. N:
WB website lists India having a poverty rate or 22%, 20 years ago it was 50%.
http://data.worldbank.org/country/india
So, what @Economist is saying is indeed true.
If you want to know how Pakistan is doing on this front look at this :
http://tribune.com.pk/story/181361/economic-survey-2010-11-has-the-real-poverty-rate-hit-43/
Pakistan real poverty rate has increased to 43%. This is a 3 year old report. The poverty rate would have increased further since Pakistan's GDP growth is almost negligible.
So, half the population of Pakistan is under extreme poverty. Which fits in well with this particular article.
@Ayesha Qadri : I am a Pakistani, and unfortunately I can't do much about it now. However, I would suggest you check the meaning of cult in dictionary and then reflect on our 60 + year history. PS. regret to burst your bubble, but there is a whole lot of literature out there by Pakistanis who argue against TNT, and for various logical reasons. After all it's just a "theory" and not some "divine law".
Do not agree about Pakistan being fragile.
It is one of the most strongest states in the world.
We are a strong, determined and resiliant people.
All these reports by think tanks is wihsful thinking - we will NOT BE DEMORALISED
Lets focus on the rule of law, an equitable distribution of wealth, education, border security.
Pakistan Zindabad
These assessments are based on old statistics; Pakistan after destabilising KPK land and creating a million plus IDP's is now 2nd most vulnerable after Iraq in the world.
Rex Minor
@Abdullah: But only in your maps!
@Patriot. N: As per the following real world bank link India has 22% of population below poverty line. i.e. 22% of 1.25 billion comes to 275 million. (As per world bank 2012 data)
http://data.worldbank.org/country/india
Iraq at 13th and Syria at 16th with half of Iraq and almost 40 percent of Syria now under ISIS control. Shows the flawed nature of this survey. And Jordan at 83, the country is almost run-over by ISIS and other small countries like Bahrain(at 120), Qatar, Kuwait(127) and Saudi Arabia(Saudi Arabia has asked Pakistan military help to quell the danger) in dire straits of taken over by ISIS. It is the size of the defense strength and the resilience of the people, coupled with the economy and the population size and their internal cohesion which determines the state of the country. By these aspects Pakistan is the strongest amongst them.
@Frank: correct, Pakistan is prospering like no other.
@Xman: "We" - really? Are you really a Pakistani, dear? Because I don't think any Pakistani would ever say a word against TNT, or call himself a cult worshiper.
@Economist:
World Bank reports India has more than 400 million poor people or one third of the worlds poor. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/10003228/India-has-one-third-of-worlds-poorest-says-World-Bank.html
As the report pointed out this is mainly due to the IDP's coming out of the tribal areas. Once the operation is finished and the IDP's returns...the situation and the status will improve.
Fragile State...handle with care or get busted.
We are reaping what we sowed. Thanks to two nation theory, and our obsession with cult worship.