The writer is a former caretaker finance minister and served as vice-president at the World Bank
I may be reading more into what Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, has said and done since he took office but it appears to me that he could bring about a sea-change in the way South Asia will work in the future. By choosing to go to Bhutan, a small neighbour in India’s north-east for his first foreign visit, the new Indian prime minister was sending out an important signal. “The choice of a neighbour for Mr Modi’s first visit is being seen as an indication of the new prime minister’s strong regional push,” wrote Nirmala Ganapithy for Singapore’s The Strait Times. “Japan has been keen to host the Indian prime minister on his maiden visit. Mr Modi, who came to power on a decisive mandate, has made improving India’s ties with the countries in the neighborhood a top foreign policy priority”.
India-Bhutan relations have significant economic benefits for both countries. Not only that they could become the basis of cooperation among the several nations of South Asia who have often been at odds with one another. Bhutan-India economic cooperation is an example of what the new prime minister expected to gain from other regional contacts. In collaboration with India, the tiny Himalayan Kingdom aims to generate up to 10,000 megawatts of power in the next seven years, up from 1,500 megawatts it now produces. Most if it is exported to India.
It is not inconceivable that this kind of collaboration could become the basis of a multi-country electricity grid system and gas and oil pipelines that would connect all countries of South Asia as well as Central Asia. Such a system could supply various forms of energy from the energy surplus countries in the region to those that — like India and Pakistan — have large deficits. Such an arrangement would help Afghanistan meet a significant part of its resource needs. The American pull out is likely to result in large declines in external capital flows to the country. This loss could be compensated by the country charging transit fees for the flow of energy to Pakistan and India.
What Prime Minister Modi is saying fits well into what can be called the Obama Doctrine. This was spelled out at some length by the American president in an address on May 28 at the West Point Military Academy. He said that in a rapidly changing world no single country has the might or the right to dictate to other nations. The relevance of the Obama Doctrine becomes obvious when the future of South and Central Asia is viewed in the context of regional cooperation. By eschewing the use of military force to exert its influence on the world, President Obama has laid the ground for using economics to accommodate the rising China. The doctrine’s application to Asia will provide comfort to Beijing that its economic rise is not being ‘contained’ in the sense the approach was used in the days of the Cold War with reference to the Soviet Union.
Whether Prime Minister Modi is consciously framing his approach to his country’s neighbours in the same context as the Obama Doctrine is not the issue. What is important to recognise is that the new world’s two great powers are on the same page in dealing with external relations. If India under Modi makes the adjustments that seem to be the way the country’s new prime minister is proceeding, other countries in the region will need to make their own changes. With the launch of the Zarb-e-Azb operation in North Waziristan, Pakistan may have taken a step in the right direction. As the novelist Mohammad Hanif put it, Pakistan had turned the tribal agency into a ‘terrorist resort’. It has harboured people who have inflicted damage in all the countries Pakistan borders. Afghanistan, China, India and Iran have all suffered at the hands of the terrorists who have launched operations from Pakistani soil. If words can be trusted as intentions, Pakistan’s prime minister appears to share the same belief in using economics to improve the citizen’s welfare. By moving to destroy terrorist havens, he may also be creating the environment which will finally bring about economic integration in the South Asian region.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 23rd, 2014.
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COMMENTS (18)
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Indeed a good proposal.But we should be careful about the export of terrorism.
@Bakhtiyar Ghazi Khan: why are you guys so delusional? same old narrative, same old insecurities!
Nawaz Sharif took a position (of improving ties with India) before and during the run-up to the elections. After that, he has not done anything to advance that agenda. Everyone knows Pakistani military is a rogue military and will not support normal trade, comer and travel between India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. After all, billions of dollars of spending will go away if peace prevails in the region. But, Nawaz Sharif has not even bothered to provide lip service to his pre-poll position.
Tribal areas and Afghan soil are being used by the enemies of Pakistan to destabilize both Afghanistan and Pakistan. People in KP and FATA know full well that these bombings and attacks are funded by foreign agencies from India, Israel, US, and other countries. We have no doubt about it. We are catching these agents daily.
I trust my Pakistan army to do the best for the interests of this country. People of FATA and KP stand behind Pakistan against all its enemies.
Well-written. I think Nawaz Sharif thinks along the same lines but not sure any of other major lobbies in Pakistan including Army, protectionist industrialist like automobiles or mullahs share this thinking. I wish the Finance Minister was a little more forward-looking and could put Nawaz Sharif thinking into action. The problem with NS is that he keeps getting into domestic problems and has no time to address future direction of the economy.
@Abdul Ghafar Khan Hamiya ( PhD Student): Indian Goverment never supported guerrilla movement in Sri Lanka. On the contrary India sent Army to help Sri Lanka army which became the reason of Rajiv Ghandi's murder. This stand often put Delhi Government in fight with its local Tamil population of southern state of Tamilnadu. .
Every one knows that the Pakistan is in war like situation. Pakistan fighting against terrorist in other words Pakistan is facing very crucial situation from the last ten year. India was also one of the biggest element which increased more tension for Pakistan by creating Kasab Azmal case, attack on their Assembly and many other self made crises. Beside these Pakistan continuously offer to India to defuse these baseless issues. I think Pakistan is a responsible country, Pakistan has no need copy to India or we r no concern about the India that what MOdi is doing or not. Pakistan has a great responsibilities being an important member of Islamic world and being a responsible nuclear country as compare to India. We are very thankful to India if India has started to keep and maintain peace with neighbors rather than creating panic as it done before. Pakistan has it own agenda in the region. Pakistan has already done recorded historical achievement for the neighbor countries for example Victory of Sri lanka against Indian supported guerrillas. Scarifies for Afghanistan by considering the refuses of Afghanistan being a members of Pakistani community as compare to Iran and India, Initiate to bring two super powers America and China on one table and now fighting against international terrorist . In short India has a lot of time to give attention on its own masses they extremely need the basic necessities of life.
I hate to rain on Pakistan's parade. Modi's outreach will not extend to Pakistan for a long, long time even if it considers itself the centre of the Universe through which every latitude and longitude traverses and therefore everyone has no choice but to pass through Pakistan. If Pakistan wants to be in on this, there is a huge slog in front of it. It is doubtful if Pakistan has the will to undertake such an undertaking.
Very well written article. If Pakistan becomes transit hub for emerging Indian economy connecting with central Asia and builds its infrastructure accordingly, both the countries could reap tremendous economic benefits. Pakistan can learn a lesson from Middle East countries and avoid islamisation for sheer survival as a modern state. Economic welfare of its people by joining hands with other neighbouring countries is the only way out of its present day problems including that of terrorism.
This seems to be a change in the narrative "we are willing to die to get Kashmir". This change in vision if genuine, could not have come a day sooner. At some stage in a countries evolution, welfare of the people should become the key objective of its existence.
Sir A thoughtful assessment off Modi's initial foreign policy choices - whether invitation to heads of SAARC countries or first visit being to Bhutan. Just as Nawaz had to overcome iternal opposition to accept the invitation, Modi had to overcome opposition from Shiv Sena for inviting Sharif and from the Tamil Nadu parties. To inite Sri Lanka. He will have to overcome opposition from West Bengal to pursue a pragmatic policy with Bangladesh - particularly with river water sharing. It seems he is clear that while state leaders should be consukted for decisions internal to India, they do not have a veto on India's foreign policy which has to be owned by the centre.
One hopes that relations with Palistan improve but Nawaz being willing is not enough. Will the Pakistani 'establishment' change its doctrine which holds India as a permanent enemy?
Pakistan has to make a few choices about its beliefs, namely: 1) it is pre ordained to superiority over others because it is Islamic 2) it is in the Middle East 3) others are to be blamed for all its problems 4) India is inherently bad.
Indian relations will improve with all the neighbors, but Pakistan. basics are very poor when it comes to Indo-Pak relations. There is hardly any trust between two countries. Conduct a survey in both the countries and at least 80-90% people will tell that they don't trust each other. Business relations require trust. For Pakistan Indians are Hindu Baniyas. Nothing wrong in wishing and trying for better relations, however, ground is not ready to support the same.
A word of caution to the author - the word "regionalism" has negative connotations in India. The term to use is "regional integration" or similar.
It is strange that nobody commented on such a wonderful article came out from Pakistan.....
I was expecting Modi to visit Japan or China. But, he outdid all of us by going to Bhutan.
Wonderful thought process.
India has more to gain than inter-state trade and inter-South Asia trade than distant places.
People hardly talk about the 2 dozen plus states trading with each other. Trade with resource rich Bhutan and Bangladesh is of primary importance.
Pakistan having a lot of baggage and internal problems has to sort out its troubles before it can integrate with South Asia(India+).
To the point and accurate. A well written piece.
What the writer hopes for would be wonderful. However, Pakistan has a long history of cutting its nose to spite its face. It would rather lose a lot than to see you-know-who gain a little. Can it ever overcome that?