Abbottabad voters to choose between ‘change’ and ‘dynasty’

Incumbency issues for PML-N, non-resident PTI candidate likely to result in a head-to-head race.

ABBOTTABAD:

The bitter rivalry between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is bound to escalate as supporters of both parties prepare to cast their ballot in the PK-45 by-elections on June 5.

Governor Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan Abbasi had clinched the seat in last year’s general elections by securing 27,734 votes with the runner-up, PTI’s Abdul Rehman Abbasi, bagging 14,538 votes.

The seat fell vacant two months back, when Mehtab resigned after his elevation as the governor of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

A total of seven candidates are running in the by-polls, however, the real contest is between PML-N’s Sardar Fareed Ahmed Khan Abbasi, first cousin and brother-in-law of the governor, and PTI’s Ali Asghar Khan, the younger son of veteran politician Air Marshal (retd) Asghar Khan, who serves the party as its regional vice president.



After having gone through an exhaustive number of corner meetings in eight union councils (UC) of the remote constituency, mostly comprising hilly areas, both leading candidates and their supporters have been going door-to-door in a last-ditch effort to garner the most votes.

Politics of dynasty and development

Since the first party-less election of 1985, the seat which was earlier known as PF-35 has been the stronghold of the governor’s family, with the present candidate and the governor’s son Sardar Shamon Yar Khan having secured it in the past.

Despite having a higher literacy rate compared to other areas of the district and an abundance of forests, water springs and minerals, the area of Bakot Circle, ruled by Mehtab’s family for decades, has unfortunately remained ignored and underdeveloped.

Spread over 100 square kilometres with its boundaries touching Muzaffarabad in the east, Lora union council in the west, Mansehra in the north and Murree in the south, the picturesque valley of Bakot has only three higher secondary schools for boys and four high schools for girls. Apart from being ill-equipped with essentials such as teaching staff and furniture, these schools hardly cater to the needs of a population of over 300,000 villagers. There is no college for boys or girls, nor is there a technical college. Thus, those who can afford to prefer to send their children to Abbottabad, Rawalpindi or Islamabad for a decent education.



With regards to health care, there are only two basic health units – one in Moliya and the other in Bakot – which too are short of staff and basic services. Meanwhile, the rural health centres in Boi and Bakot are two projects that are yet to take off the ground.

Owing to lack of health care facilities, villagers are forced to go to Muzaffarabad, Murree and Garhi Habibullah to seek medical treatment, but heavy snowfall during winter blocks most roads, leaving only so many ways to reach other towns and cities.

Irfan Abbasi, a resident of Nambal village, said the 2005 earthquake destroyed almost all schools in the area. He added that about 70% of government school buildings are yet to be rebuilt, forcing students of primary and high schools to attend classes either in the open or under tents in dilapidated conditions. “Is this the service the great governor has done to his area,” questioned Irfan, adding that Mehtab has never realised the hardships of the people who have always supported him and his family. He said Mehtab shuttles between Peshawar and Islamabad and rarely visits the area, adding that when he does do so, he comes to offer fateha or attend wedding ceremonies of influential supporters.

Social activist Naveed Ahmed termed the by-election the most interesting one in recent times, as earlier there had hardly ever been a strong candidate to challenge Mehtab’s family seat. “He (Mehtab) used to call voters to his home in Abbottabad, asking them to vote for him or his relatives – but the times have changed now,” he said. He claimed that this time around young voters have revolted against the politics of dynasty and are in awe of Ali Asghar Khan who gives much more respect to the electorate.

Moreover, Ali’s NGO, the Omar Asghar Khan Foundation, which has rebuilt several schools and carried out uplift projects in the area, has won him substantial praise from development-deprived locals.

Deciding factor

Some observers reluctant to accept Ali as a strong candidate state that he is a non-resident with no support of local clans and does not even know how to converse in Hindko – the region’s main language. But others who site his social services and “highly-educated human rights oriented approach” deem him a strong candidate.

“If Ali is an outsider, so to speak, then Fareed too is a resident of Islamabad,” claimed Naeem, a PTI supporter, adding that the PML-N candidate – a poultry and carpet businessman – has built a home in Islamabad and only visits the area during election days. He said the incumbency factor weighs heavily on PML-N. Nevertheless, they have managed to retain the seat since 1985, he added.

A villager from Boi UC, Muzaffar, claimed that although Berot, Palak and Bakot UCs are the stronghold of PML-N, Ali has successfully made a dent in Fareed’s vote bank there. He claimed that Boi, Dalola, Kukmang and Nambal areas would decide the winner.

He said the support of Pir Azhar and Nazir Abbasi, former nazims of Bakot, has strengthened the PTI candidate’s position while in Nambal, the support of Gulzar Abbasi would also prove helpful for Ali. However, he believes Palak UC would be the area where both contestants go neck-to-neck.

In case the seat is bagged by Fareed, the PML-N numbers in the provincial assembly will once again reach 17, equal to Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl’s, whose MPA Lutfur Rehman took Mehtab’s slot as the opposition leader in the house.

Both sides have been making frantic efforts in the past weeks to win sympathies of voters with Governor Abbasi and Chief Minister Pervez Khattak’s visits to the region.

How dear the seat is to PTI can be gauged from the fact that party chief Imran Khan visited the constituency twice, on May 24 and June 3, addressing public meetings in far-off areas and making promises of ‘change’.

There are reports that PTI also has the support of Jamaat-e-Islami and Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat along with tacit assurance from some influential figures of Pakistan Peoples Party for its candidate.

However, at the end, it is the voters’ own perception of things that will decide the victory of either candidate. Whether they choose to embrace PTI’s ‘change’ and end the politics of dynasty or prefer the age-old tribal and clan loyalties irrespective of what it has delivered will be clear come Friday morning.

PUBLIC HOLIDAY

The district administration has declared June 5 a public holiday in the jurisdiction of the provincial assembly constituency to ensure smooth by-elections. According to a press release issued from the office of Abbottabad District Commissioner Matiullah Khan, carrying and using weapons in the limits of the entire district has been banned under Section 144 of the Pakistan Penal Code.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 4^th, 2014.