Obama’s trip a step up for India

The real test for President Obama is to strike a balance in de-hyphenated relations with two hyphenated neighbours.

The much-anticipated maiden trip of US President Barack Obama to India, later this month, is already making headlines, with breathless commentaries on possible opportunities for the two sides. The relationship of 60-odd years between the world’s two biggest democracies has been characterised by ebbs and tides, with the Pakistan factor playing a key role in their bitter-sweet relationship. President Obama’s predecessor, George W Bush, though unpopular at home, delivered a civil nuclear deal to India despite strong opposition from Islamabad and despite Delhi’s reluctance to ratify the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But there is no big ticket item on Obama’s trip — the longest he will make to any foreign country during his presidency so far.

So what does New Delhi expect? The list isn’t too long. One, it expects President Obama to lift export restrictions on sensitive hi-technology put in place after the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests. Two, it wants unequivocal US support for a permanent berth on the UN Security Council. And three, India wants President Obama to address its concerns over billions of dollars of aid given to Pakistan.

In return, the burgeoning Indian economy and its quest for arms, fuelled by the growing military might of China, has a lot to offer. In June this year, British Prime Minister David Cameron, on a tour to India, clinched $1.1 billion in defence deals. The Obama administration knows that India, one of the world's biggest arms markets, is expected to spend $112 billion on defence acquisition between now and 2016. And President Obama will be pushing for the existing American tenders for defence contracts.

But the lion’s share is expected to go to America’s rival, Russia, as New Delhi is expected to sign an approximately $30 billion stealth fighter co-production deal with Moscow, during President Dmitry Medvedev’s trip next month. High on President Obama’s priority list will be India's assimilation into global non-proliferation bodies, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, the Australia Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement. Obama may also press India to begin serious commercial negotiations with American nuclear suppliers as a follow-up to the nuclear deal.

Now the million-dollar question: What can Pakistan expect from this trip? Not much, frankly speaking. America doesn’t want to estrange India — a country with which President Obama says his country is going to have one of the “defining relationships” of the 21st century. Proof: Obama skipped Pakistan in his upcoming tour.

Islamabad expects the Obama administration to play a role in resolving the Kashmir dispute which has been bedeviling Pakistan-India relations since their inception in 1947. At the recent strategic dialogue meetings in Washington, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi did raise this issue. But the State Department quickly moved to preclude the possibility of US mediation, saying Washington will encourage bilateral dialogue between the two countries to resolve the issue. So there is little possibility of this issue figuring in talks between President Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. But Pakistan and Afghanistan will surely be on the agenda. India has become the biggest regional aid donor with its $1.3 billion worth of civilian projects in Afghanistan. The US is happy with this ‘developmental role’ but Pakistan is not; it is wary of the increasing Indian presence in its backyard. The real test for President Obama will be to strike a balance, or at least some semblance of balance, in its de-hyphenated relations with the two hyphenated neighbours.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 2^nd, 2010.