Modi’s insecurity

Modi in 180-seat scenario will have to reinvent himself entirely since he has only ever worked with 2/3rd majority.

What will the Narendra Modi cabinet look like? My answer is that it will depend on how few seats he gets. This is logical and most portfolio distribution is managed through the logic of seat sharing with allies.

But what I mean here is that the number of seats that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins will determine the way in which the party itself will get to enjoy the spoils of victory. Opinion polls show that the BJP is riding a wave on the back of Modi’s performance and a superb, world-class campaign.

The polls that did their sampling six months ago, gave the BJP a little short of 200 seats, a couple predicting the 180-190 range. A few months after that, the polls showed the party at over 200. The ones just before the election showed the party at about 220 and the BJP is now talking about 300 seats (along with their allies).

What will the Modi cabinet look like given each of these scenarios? The rise in the predictions over time shows that the higher number is more likely than the lower, so let’s go there first. If the BJP has a majority or close to a majority on its own, that will be a problem for its senior leaders. That is because Modi will then have the space to do what he has done in Gujarat. In that state he has appropriated all the important cabinet portfolios himself. The reasons for this appropriation are two: the first is Modi is (according to himself) the only competent leader in government.

I will prove this by again, as I have before, pointing to the words he had used to describe himself on his website: “great dreamer”; “remarkable ability”; “hard taskmaster”; “strict disciplinarian”; “amazing”; “realist”; “idealist”; “clarity of vision, sense of purpose, diligent perseverance”; “excellent organisational ability: “rich insight into human psychology”; “sheer strength of character and courage” and so on. And on.

The second reason is that he is highly insecure and has tolerated no rival. I’ve written enough about this in the past as well. There will be a repeat of this in Delhi if the BJP wins, on the back of his performance, 272 seats or a number close to it. Sushma Swaraj and LK Advani and other senior leaders will have to take ministries like Sports and Youth Affairs and Human Resources Development. Modi will invent some jobs for others. My friend Jay Narayan Vyas, for years a minister under Modi, was given the portfolio ‘Minister for Non-resident Gujaratis’. I said to him on a TV show that Modi would govern all Gujaratis in Gujarat while he had given Jay Narayan the task to ensure the good governance of all Gujaratis in America and Canada.

Everyone in the BJP knows this and within the party there is the ‘180 group’ of people who want fewer seats so that the tyranny is limited. People like Arun Jaitley, a Rajya Sabha MP from Gujarat despite not knowing any Gujarati, saw which way the wind was blowing years ago and have chosen to kiss the ring.

What would happen if the 180 group got its wish? Then it becomes a little complicated. Modi will have to accommodate first, plenty of allies, who will add their numbers to make up the deficit. He will have to let go of critical ministries, especially those that are called ATM ministries (a clever name coined by my friend, the Indian Express editor Shekhar Gupta) for their ability to generate cash.

And he will also have to distribute power to the rest of the BJP, because the win would not be seen as his personal triumph. A Modi in a 180-seat scenario will be fascinating to people like me who have known him for so long. He will have to reinvent himself entirely as a leader and as a person because he has only ever worked with a two-thirds majority.

I will personally be delighted to see him steer a 180-seat coalition successfully for five years because it will prove many of the nasty things I believe about him to be untrue.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4^th, 2014.

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