Egypt: Tottering at the brink

By pushing the Brotherhood into a corner, the Egyptian army is likely to force them to hit back.

Field Marshall Sisi has resigned as defence minister and army chief of Egypt to contest elections for the presidency. Simultaneously, a court in the city of Minya has awarded death sentences to 529 supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood on charges of attacking a police station and killing a police officer; recently, an additional 119 Brotherhood supporters were also handed three year sentences. While 147 defendants were present when the sentences were read out, most were tried in absentia, in proceedings that lasted only two days. The verdict has now been sent to the Grand Mufti for his views, which is a requirement under the Egyptian legal system. There is a right to appeal after the judgment has been endorsed by the mufti.

The Human Rights Watch has termed the trial ‘a sham’ and insisted that ‘sentences should be immediately quashed’. Catherine Ashton of the European Union has expressed ‘serious concern over the death sentences’ and the US Secretary of State John F Kerry has stated, “I am deeply, deeply troubled by the sudden and unprecedented decision by an Egyptian court to issue preliminary death sentences for 529 citizens after a quick mass trial”.

The Egyptian foreign ministry has responded to the criticism of the verdict by stating that the judiciary is “entirely independent and not influenced in any way by the executive branch of the government”. It is, however, a fact that most of the decisions passed by the judiciary in the recent past have been in favour of the government and against its opponents, leading to strict sentences for the supporters of the Brotherhood. It is clear that through the court verdict, the government wants to send a strong message to the Brotherhood supporters that they should give up any plans of organising any movement against the Sisi government.

The last few years have seen things going from bad to worse for this country. If the people were expecting the army to restore democracy, it soon dawned on them that it was more interested in restoring its power by taking on its old enemy, the Muslim Brotherhood. Ousted Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi is going to be tried for every kind of crime, including murder. The aim is to scuttle the Arab Spring by saving former president Hosni Mubarak from being tried for murderous attacks on protestors during the last days of his reign.

It is also evident that the Muslim Brotherhood is not going to play any role under Sisi, as he is the villain for them. Conversely, they will try to mobilise the masses to take to the streets. Some students at universities have been responding to its calls and continue to stage anti-government protest. However, massive demonstrations are yet to happen due to the heavy crackdown on anti-government groups. Still, they are likely to continue to challenge the government.

Additionally, the Brotherhood is strongly entrenched in Egyptian society through its network of charities, medical facilities and social welfare. By banning these activities, the army is doing a disservice to poor Egyptians who depend on these services. Mubarak had recognised this critical role and therefore, even when the Muslim Brotherhood was banned under his regime, their charities and related organisations remained functional.

General Sisi, on the other hand, seems to have lost touch with reality. He and his team are banking on the hope that the Egyptian people are increasingly getting sick of the continuing unrest and violence and would like to see the end of it. The economy is in a mess, tourism has dried up and its allied professions are dwindling. So, while many people might sympathise with the Brotherhood, they do not have the energy for non-stop protests and killings.

However, this is not the 20^th Century. By pushing the Brotherhood into a corner and restricting their space to function, the Egyptian army is likely to force them to hit back. A prolonged civil war, similar to the situation in other neighbouring countries, might be the sorry outcome. Egypt is on dangerous ground.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 18^th, 2014.

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