The writer is a senior subeditor at The Express Tribune
The secretary of state even went on to say that Pakistan had the potential to be an ‘Asian tiger’ as envisioned by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and extended his long-term support for the goal. While in Washington, Pakistan was being praised, glasses were being raised and backs were being patted, in Kabul, Afghan President Hamid Karzai was huffing and puffing. He released 72 high-profile (militant) detainees, shocking many, and is now churning out one demand after another, leaving the US with extremely limited choices for the future.
He has refused to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), which gives immunity and ensures protection of the residual US troops that will be left behind, until his conditions are fulfilled. His latest demand to the US is simple: persuade the Afghan Taliban to engage in peace talks with the Afghan government before you leave. He knows the US is pressed for time as it needs to plan accordingly, i.e., whether to reallocate resources or pull the plug. And he also knows that the US supports talks with the Afghan Taliban, but facilitating the dialogue is ‘absurd’.
The BSA was endorsed by the four-day Loya Jirga in November last year, calling on the Afghan president to sign it. The upper house of the Afghan parliament, plus tribal and political leaders, also gave the nod. Then why is Karzai not signing the BSA? Why is he raising his guard, making more demands, causing more hurdles? He is probably pursuing a natural, yet parochial goal –– self-preservation.
As scheming as it sounds, he is mainly hedging his bets for his political survival after the US leaves or maintains a minimal retinue. Depending on which way it goes –– whether the BSA is agreed upon with limited American presence or the US opts for the zero option after negotiations fail –– Karzai wants it done before the country goes to the polls, so that he has enough time to strike political deals and forge new alliances.
Pakistan also has its eyes on the Afghan presidential elections. Taking a rather pragmatic approach, Islamabad indicated that it would be more feasible to talk to those who come into power after the polls. “My own feeling is that after the election, the Afghan Taliban will probably talk to the new government more … than the present government,” said Aziz during his visit to Washington. In a judicious policy move, Pakistan also chose not to interfere in the BSA-Karzai broil. Aziz said that while experts felt the proposed security agreement would help stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan believed that “it’s for the Afghans to decide whether they want to do this deal”. Therefore, it will wait for the fog to clear. Once Karzai is out and (maybe) the US is out, Pakistan will make its move. This caution and prudence is commendable, but Pakistan seems a bit overconfident. Things can go either way, with new alliances being forged and other groups, namely Hibz-e-Islami, coming to the fore. And what if Abdullah Abdullah wins the elections? We all know his strong anti-Pakistan sentiment.
The Americans are looking for Pakistan’s support for a stable post-2014 Afghanistan, but Kabul’s support is and should be as important to Pakistan as America’s. Pakistan is in its comfort zone, but it should not get too comfortable. It needs to be carefully planning for post-presidential election scenarios, keeping in mind the situation in its own tribal areas. Before and after the elections, the country must make a profound effort to improve relations with the western neighbour and control cross-border activities. In the next six months, Pakistan must plan, act and follow through to regain its credibility in Afghanistan, keeping aside its quasi-colonialist strategic objectives.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 4th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (16)
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@ Rex Minor
FYI, the Taliban control a few districts at best and they are always on the run once the ANA conduct a clearing operation in said districts.
The Taliban are a spent force that has been exposed as stooges and any sympathy that they enjoyed among the populace has been radically diminished due to their indiscriminate and brutal violence against the people of Afghanistan.
As we speak the good people of Afghanistan are rising up against the oppressive and reactionary doctrines of the Taliban and are duly siding with the government and campaigning for their choice of presidential candidates throughout the country.
It is indeed an excellent write of the situation and all the known events of the past and the fture plans of the foreigners. Let me go into the history and find out some facts about the contra hands and the people of the region:
The Pashtuns can never even think of submitting to a foreign power (Sir Olaf Caroe) The Ameroiacns have never won a war on their own in history. Pakistan army is a colonial structured and has not the professional training to confront and fight against a determined enemy force. Its contemporary colonialists fought in 1860, 1881, 1894-95, 1900-1, 1919-20. 1925s I have left their wars against Afghan which proved to be tragic for Indians as well. Hamid Karzi will not sign up to any agreement withh the occupation power, who according to his deatils undertook 3500 attacks on Afghan villages causing the death of civiians old, women and children. The Talibans now control more than two third of Afghanistan and those who think that they will give up their control after 2014 are simply deluding themselves.
Rex Minor
And what if Abdullah Abdullah wins the elections? We all know his strong anti-Pakistan sentiment. . OK I'll bite - your statement implies that there are pro Pakistan politicians - care to name even one? Last poll I read indicated that Afghan's hated Pakistan and blamed them for almost everything that has ever gone wrong in their country - chances of finding an elected leader who thinks different are close to zero.
Pakistan's quasi colonialist strategic objectives have brought nothing but failed strategies against a nation that has never been colonized and resent this mentality of the colonized brown sahibs.
"Pakistan ...... is the shoulder the US is leaning on ..... " As the power behind the only superpower on the planet, Pakistan should shed its natural diffidence. For starters, next time summon Kerry and his boss to Islamabad to explain themselves to Sartaj Aziz's assistant. Having helped the US out of Afghanistan, humanity will never forgive Pakistan if it goes into isolation now. We expect it to take charge of the world, and I hope the author will play her part in ensuring that.
Very good piece, covering a good number of important angles, realistic. Amazed at poor quality of comments.
someone please tell the writer this is opinion section of the paper , not her school essay writing exam
Of course Pakistan has the potential to be an 'Asian Tiger'!
And I have the potential to be eight feet tall!
All over the place really. Please stick to writing about Karachi. Foreign policy and Afghanistan is clearly a bridge too far for you.
For the sake of coherence in your future pieces, I would advise you to read your own article from the line: Once Karzai is out and (maybe) the US is out, Pakistan will make its move...
to the end of the article where you write: In the next six months, Pakistan must plan, act and follow through to regain its credibility in Afghanistan, keeping aside its quasi-colonialist strategic objectives.
Your article reeks of the familiar paranoia that the Pakistani establishment suffers about Afghanistan and the only difference is both you and the establishment now camouflage that paranoia with seemingly born-again acknowledgements about staying away from Pakistan's quasi-colonialist strategic objectives.
You say you should support Afghanistan but you are wary of Abdullah Abdullah - so you are implying that the US should tell the Afghan people not to vote for Abdullah (raise to the power of two)??
aimless piece - what is the author trying to say?
Karzai is right, not to have signed the BSA with the US, because of two reasons :
Thirteen years is long enough, and the US led occupation forces have no business to interfere in Afghanistan's affairs any more. It is time for the Afghan people to take charge of their own destiny. Thirteen years of the occupation forces presence in the region has not addressed Afghanistan's fundamental issue of the conflicts with Taliban, Pakistan's strategic asset. Pakistan's safe heavens for these anti-Afghan elements have not been addressed.Therefore, for the Afghan people, it is time to get rid of the western powers, and take their destiny in their own hands.
Only role Pakistan can play is that of a spoiler. Same role its been playing since 2001.
I had to scratch my head after reading this and thought.......did she seriously write this herself ? It sounded so up in the air. Lets hope that you're at least partly right.