Counting on hope in 2014

Political leaders in Europe, North America were largely caught off-guard by civil war underway in South Sudan.

As those who follow the Gregorian calendar celebrate the beginning of a new year, a time for reflection is setting in. Successes and failures, both personal and public, are evaluated; expectations for the year ahead are appraised. As ever, thoughts turn to learning from the past, and avoiding the repetition of mistakes in the future. This is as true in the realm of international affairs as well.

It has not proved to be a particularly relaxing holiday season for policymakers in the West, who have had to respond to flare-ups in the Central African Republic’s long-simmering conflict and suspected terrorist attacks in Russia, not to mention the never-ending Syrian conflagration.

However, political leaders in Europe and North America were largely caught off-guard by the civil war apparently underway in South Sudan, the world’s newest country that was hailed as a success story upon gaining independence in 2011. Cooler heads may eventually prevail, but the violence has already resulted in the deaths of at least 1,000 people and displaced over 80,000.

Some important parallels can be drawn between South Sudan and US Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to renew the moribund Middle East peace process. As Kerry flies to Jerusalem in early January for the next round of talks, supporters in both the Israeli and Palestinians camps should look to one of the world’s newest armed conflicts for lessons on how to resolve one of the world’s oldest ones.

Lesson No 1: There is no point in staving off the inevitable. Undoubtedly, the families of those killed and displaced in the latest wave of violence in South Sudan are finding small comfort in the fact that their independence struggle was successful. Nevertheless, if they hadn’t won statehood, armed conflict between North and South Sudan would likely have rekindled, leading to further death and destruction. This is a powerful parallel to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Legitimate security concerns aside, successive Israeli governments have found that each passing decade bring diminishing returns for the continued occupation of territories won in 1967. Likewise, the Palestinian leadership has been unable to improve the livelihood of its people through continued armed struggle. As both the Israelis and Palestinians doggedly try to lower expectations prior to Kerry’s arrival in the region, they might instead look towards making concessions instead of excuses.

Lesson No 2: The problems don’t end just because the violence does. The truth of this axiom is evident in Northern Ireland, which is currently engaged in marathon negotiations to hammer out some of the more contentious issues left over from the Good Friday peace accords — completed over 15 years ago. A declaration of the end of armed hostilities between the Palestinians and the Israelis would obviously be welcomed, but this would only remove the most immediate threat to the lives and wellbeing of the people in the region. Risks from political, ethnic and religious differences will remain, and need to be sufficiently dealt with before all parties can set about building a post-conflict world. South Sudan is proof that even international goodwill and oil revenues are not enough to offset long-standing tensions.

Lesson No 3: It is easier to be in opposition than in leadership. In South Sudan, the Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups have long existed uneasily alongside each other, but found it easy to unite in the face of oppression and brutality emanating from Khartoum. Likewise, the Hamas leadership in Gaza and the Fatah party in the West Bank are known to despise each other, but have a common enemy in the Israeli occupation. When and if peace is achieved — and all of the seemingly intractable problems relating to borders, security and the status of Jerusalem somehow resolved — Hamas and Fatah will still have to find a way to deal with each other.

There are no easy solutions, but the status quo is untenable. May 2014 bring creative thinking and courageous leadership to these and other conflicts.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 2^nd, 2014.

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