Afghan stew

One does not need a strategic expert to know that Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai is far more comfortable in India, than in Pakistan, and loses no opportunity to visit India where he spends considerable time travelling and addressing meetings. Karzai is once again in India — for the third time this year — to meet the leadership, address members of parliament, speak to the media in a special interactive session and travel to Pune for delivering a keynote address.

Karzai has been asking for weapons and defence equipment for a while now and is reported to have submitted a wish list of sorts to the Indian government. New Delhi remains reluctant, partly because it does not manufacture weapons itself and is not particularly keen to be cast in the role of an arms broker; and partly because there is worry about the possible rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the weapons, thus, falling into the wrong hands.

Afghanistan’s Ambassador to India, Shaida M Abdali, made it clear recently that the ongoing transition in Afghanistan “needs Afghan forces to be responsible for security and supported by outside from countries, including India”. The Afghan government is pressuring India to step up its defence cooperation from the basic training of Afghan security forces to the supply of defence equipment. Significantly, Karzai has still not agreed to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US, leading to considerable heartburn in Washington. The US has made it clear that it is hopeful of India using its influence to persuade Karzai to sign the agreement. New Delhi has endorsed the US military role in Afghanistan, and although maintains a diplomatic silence on this issue, can be expected to use its good offices to bring Karzai on line.

The Aghan president has told the Indian media that he would not be ‘intimidated’ into signing the agreement with the US that would allow 12,000 American troops to stay on in Afghanistan by determining the terms of engagement. “Aggressive rhetoric won’t work, we are not a nation that is known for giving into intimidation,” he said. “If they have not recognised this, they should ... We will sign it when we feel sure that our signature will bring peace and security,” Karzai added.

Clearly, the US threat to pull out all troops if he does not sign the security agreement by the end of this year has not worked, and Karzai has decided, at this rather late stage, to call some of the shots. His hard words ahead of meeting Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh makes it clear that he would not like to be pressured on this issue and retain the right to take his own decisions at a time of his own choosing.

The overwhelming Indian strategic view is for the country to keep out of the pulls and pressures within Afghanistan, and restrain its role to reconstruction and training of Afghan security personnel. A few have started speaking in favour of a more interventionist role in terms of supplying defence equipment, but given that the Indian government is in election mode, any such controversial decision is unlikely at this stage. India will remain involved in defence capacity-building in Afghanistan but will not extend this cooperation to cover defence hardware as per Karzai’s wish list. It cannot do so without upsetting the electoral applecart, with all political arguments ranged against it.

The US is having a tough time in the region, with both Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is having to resort to threats and literal blackmail to extract assurances from Islamabad that it will reopen the supplies route, and from Kabul that it will sign the BSA, with resistance from both countries to this mounting. This does not augur well for a country that is preparing to implement the huge decision to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan and yet ensure there is sufficient peace to convince the Americans at home that the years of occupation and expenditure were well worth it. At the moment, nothing seems to be in order with Washington unable to manage the rebellious governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are being compelled to respond to the force of public opinion.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 14^th, 2013.

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