South Asia expert shares dark outlook on Pakistan-India ties. PHOTO: FILE
Despite initial optimism over Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s overtures towards India, the fact is that “he doesn’t make all the policies in Pakistan himself,” says Stephen P Cohen. “The business communities, the military intellectuals, the Islamist parties, they all have a role in this, and in a sense he can’t wish something to happen and it’ll happen.”
Cohen has been one of the foremost experts on South Asia for close to 50 years. In an interview with The Express Tribune, he explained his reservations regarding a possible détente between India and Pakistan - the subject of his new book, Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum - wherein he justifies his pessimism and identifies key factors that could change the status quo.
He believes that Nawaz might simply have too much on his plate. “He is trying to establish a new relationship with the army, a new relationship with India, a new relationship with the US. If he did any one of those things in 3-4 years, it will be a major accomplishment. But to try and do all of them, while trying to rebuild the economy, is a big task.”
On Pakistan-India ties, Cohen has a dark outlook. “It is important to get them to understand that they’re both digging a hole for each other.”
However, the people of both countries do want change and friendly relations. Can a miracle happen? “Don’t wait for miracles. Hope is not a policy,” he responds.
“It’s like looking into a pool of water; on the surface it may be calm, or moving in one direction but underneath it may be flowing in another. So it’s more complex than you can imagine.”
Short-term trends are not indicative of what the long-term trends are going to be, according to Cohen. “I think in the long term, the positive trends are a youth generation and freer press in both countries and political parties generally being in support of normalisation. Certainly in Pakistan all of them are except for the extreme right wing.”
Meanwhile, the Indians have to reciprocate to Pakistan’s overtures. “It takes two to tango.”
In his book, he observes that there is a major debate under way in India about relations with Pakistan. “The standard Indian view has been ‘let’s ignore Pakistan or let’s destroy Pakistan – let’s not deal with Pakistan’ [...] But clearly, many sensible Indians understand that if Pakistan goes under, then India is going to suffer more than anybody else.”
What the US Can Do? Not much, it seems. “The American government has no South Asian policy. We have an India policy, we have four Afghanistan policies, and five Pakistan policies. We don’t have a single strategic view of the region. So don’t look to the Americans for help.”
Positive outcome of nuclear weapons
The fact that both countries are nuclear means that they cannot have a war between them of any consequence, concludes Cohen. “They [nuclear weapons] are clearly dangerous and unusable. But because they are dangerous and unusable, they make normalisation inevitable, or at least more likely.”
Published in The Express Tribune, December 1st, 2013.
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Despite Pakistan's current problems, it will be unrealistic to assume that Pakistanis will cave in to India, and India will be able to have a hegemonic role in the region.The American establishment wants India to be a counterweight for China in the region. This can never materialise unless India bases its relations with Pakistan on Justice, equality and peace. India has to understand that Kashmiris are not willing to consider themselves as Indians and this will always remain so. For how long will India maintain hundreds of thousands of troops in Kashmir and allow them to operate with impunity ? We want good relations with India but, as Mr. Cohen rightly said, "India has to reciprocate".
@Raj - USA: As Dr.Cohen said,"“The standard Indian view has been ‘let’s ignore Pakistan or let’s destroy Pakistan – let’s not deal with Pakistan". I assume you are an educated person living in the US but it seems you have the same mindset like the rest of the Indians. Forget about Muslims and their so called Muslim card,it is a stupid idea, the fact is that these same very people from west of India has ruled India for more than 600 years and they will not go away even if majority of Indians do try to destroy them, India will be destroyed in the process too.Don't forget that in 2001 Pakistani government did give the authority to even the rank of Brigadier to prepare and lob the nuclear weapons toward India, in case India did, a rank of Brigadeir, think about it seriously, it was Pakistan's survival at stake. Pakistan is here to stay, all they need is honest and determined leadership and it seems the young generation is providing that leadership. Don't get so cocky, India is still considered as third world country like the rest of her neighbors.
'Cohen' is a typical Jewish name. However, Stephen P. Cohen is one of the most respected and foremost experts on South Asia.
December is Pakistan's 'Month of Defeat'.
@Raj - USA: Stephen P. Cohen is a South Asian expert with a well-known slant towards Pakistan. He was also one of those instrumental for hitching the US wagon to the Taliban during the Cold War while working for the State Department.
Book Review | Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum
Dear Sirs,
India and Pakistan governments first task is to eliminate poverty from their respective countries. It is poverty that breads terror, tension, disability, uselessness, idleness. It is poverty that compell people to hate democratic values in a society. Indian and Pakistan politicians can talk big and touch the MARS whilst they are truly mentally disable people who can contribute nothing to the welfare of their own societies. Therefore STOP talking NUCLEAR. Talk about prosperity, industrial growth, jobs for every one, economic growth and elimination of disease, disability and POVERTY. This is what current Government of Pakistan is doing. Accelerating prosperity for the good of people of Pakistan. Thank you and God Bless.
Inida never reciprocates rather it always provocates,Indian should stop its provoking attitude toward Pakistan
Everything has changed after mumbai attacks....nothing shall be normal until 166 lives of mumbai attacks get justice!!
Nothing can and will happen till Pakistan frees itself from the military occupation. Pakistan is imploding due to million man army, hundreds of nuclear weapons, active drone programs and all the perks for the generals. None of these can be discussed in the parliament. We are not free till people's elected leaders are free to set policies and friendship with India.
Clearly not a good assumptions on part of Mr,Cohen. Pakistan has move on toowrd solidifying a good democratic state. We are peae loving country still teething to functions of democratic governance. We are very much together with our neighbors and perhaps on same page confronting many economic issues. The United States of America helping us through resolving our futuristic goals and we are thankful. Visit us again Mr.Cohen how we are slowly progressing forward. We are learning from many countries to move forward with our growing young population.
I fail to understand the standard phrase that if Pakistan goes down, India shall also go down. It assumes that Indian muslims support Pakistan and they shall welcome terrorists from Pakistan. It is not so. Indian muslims have the same dislike for terrorists from Pakistan. Mumbai attacks solidified it as we saw muslim graveyards refusing to bury the bodies of the terrorists. If Pakistan goes down, it would affect India only as much it would affect China. India's relationship with Pakistan is becoming closer and closer to China's relationship with Pakistan. Pakistanis may call China as their friend due to fear and India as their foe and India as their enemy due to furor, but the fact is that Pakistan can no longer play its islamic card with stupor as it used to. Islamic card is no longer an Ace in the hands of Pakistan. Today, more Islamic countries have better economic and friendly relationship with India than Pakistan and Pakistan is a pariah even in its own neighboring islamic countries.