The rising fortunes of Modi and the BJP

In the short period he has headed the BJP as its prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi has kept the party united and avoided mistakes.

The BJP is generally more disciplined than other parties and not given to splitting up, but Modi has kept even minor factionalism in check. After eliminating the threat from LK Advani, he has allowed others in the party enough space for them not to feel threatened.

The party presents a united front and is unworried by its lack of alliances in many states. This is all to the credit of Modi. The coming assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chhattisgarh will set the tone for the 2014 general elections.

The BJP is sweeping Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, according to a consensus in the opinion polls. In Madhya Pradesh, the party has set up a model similar to that in Gujarat where a strong upper caste and peasantry alliance, combined with good governance, has made it difficult for the BJP to be dislodged.



In Rajasthan also, the BJP has a good combination of castes and dominates the powerful Rajput communities. However, infighting over the leadership of Maratha princess Vasundhara Raje over the Rajputs, has fragmented the party in the past. This time around, the problem is not as pronounced and the BJP is likely to return to power.

In neither state is the idea of ‘change’, which Modi so powerfully represents, an issue. The incompetence, real or supposed, of the Congress on several fronts at the centre is not an issue in Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan. And so, we can conclude that in neither state is Modi a significant factor.

The smaller states of Chhattisgarh and Delhi are likely to see a closer fight than the larger states, but here also, the BJP is expected to prevail.

In Delhi, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) may make a dent with its protest movement and psephologists are giving it over 15 per cent of the vote, which is remarkable for an issue-based party. If this should happen, the state will get a divided house and the difference between the BJP and the Congress is expected to be marginal.

The damage to the BJP, which would have won in the absence of the AAP, will not be debited to Modi. In fact, if the AAP, on the strength of its position on corruption, is able to generate middle class votes, this is ultimately a good sign for Modi, whose appeal nationally is on similar lines.

Even in states where Modi is not a factor, he helps the BJP in a few ways. First, the BJP is a cadre-based party unlike the Congress, whose freedom movement-based cadre has long vanished.

The BJP foot soldier is from the RSS and is drawn to the party’s Hindutva ideology. He is an ideological soldier and, therefore, more committed. The leader he admires most is Modi, who is Hindutva’s poster boy. Modi’s rise nationally has fired up the BJP and the RSS cadres and this will help the party operationally in every state.

Second, Modi’s star power and charisma is rallying groups that are traditional BJP voters towards him. This is the factor that explains his success at holding public events. This ability to bring and hold potential voting groups is a first-rate asset.

Thirdly, there is already a feeling in the media and also among politicians that the momentum of the 2014 elections has decisively swung away from the Congress and towards the BJP and Modi.

The results of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, in particular, will make this sentiment more concrete. This will guide the undecided voters, to the extent that India has these, towards Modi.

Every opinion poll shows that the BJP is likely to do well in the state elections. Even if Modi is not a factor in them, he is certain to come out strengthened when results are announced in a few weeks.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 1^st, 2013.

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