‘We’re looking at a dengue epidemic this year’

According to Dr Mullick the number of cases is 1,307, with 45 from Hyderabad and the rest from Karachi and Mirpurkhas.

KARACHI: “The worst has yet to come as far as the spread and effects of the dengue virus are concerned,” cautions Dr Tahir Shamsi, a consultant haematologist with the National Institute of Blood Diseases (NIBD). According to Dr Shamsi, the government is barely managing and dengue season hasn’t even properly started. It peaks in November and will continue till mid-December.

Indeed, the picture so far is not good. According to the Sindh government’s focal person on dengue, Dr Shakeel Aamir Mullick, the number of cases is 1,307, with 45 from Hyderabad and the rest from Karachi and Mirpurkhas.

However, unofficial sources say that the number of cases is significantly higher. One main reason could be that the government is collecting statistics from about 44 hospitals across three cities while, according to rough estimates, there are at least 500 hospitals and clinics in Karachi alone.

Alarmingly, Federal Minister for Health Makhdoom Shahabuddin told journalists in Karachi on Friday, “There have been a few cases of dengue, which is nothing new as dengue is an ongoing issue. Just one or two people getting dengue does not make it an epidemic.” Dr Shamsi strongly disagrees with his claim, saying the situation is in fact just the opposite. “The authorities woke up to this epidemic in September when the numbers suddenly started rising. It’s just this month that they have become vigilant.”

The year, has so far been the worst yet. Doctors are comparing this year’s numbers with those of 2006, which was said to be a record-breaking year. That year, the government cell reported a total of 4,561 cases (July - 41 cases, August - 61, September - 199, October 1,639, November 2,297 and December 304) and 12 fatalities. They are saying that this year is worse because October has not yet ended and there are already 1,300 cases.

“Compared to 2006, we are in a horrible situation,” Shamsi said, adding that it is because the government still does not have a proper information-sharing network. This is not the first year dengue has surfaced in the city.

The government, for its part, stresses that Karachi’s residents are the best line of defence. “The threat of dengue is not being overplayed,” said Mullick while speaking to The Express Tribune. “The onus is on people as well to take precautions and protect themselves. Previously (in 2009) people were aware of dengue and since the numbers were high they took to the necessary measures but as this year initially the numbers were low, some were not cautious.”

To add to the challenge, private hospitals are not always cooperative when it comes to sharing data. In fact, according to the Sindh Health Ministry’s public relations officer Salim Khan, the Aga Khan Hospital recently shared their April to October data which put deaths from dengue at six.

Precautions

The government has been fumigating parts of the city. However, experts say the chances of being bitten by a dengue mosquito inside the house stands at 70 per cent. They strongly suggest wearing long-sleeved clothes, applying mosquito repellent on exposed skin, ensuring there is no standing water in the house and fumigating indoors.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 17^th, 2010.