Ramifications: Blockade may cost Pakistan $1m a day

ISLAMABAD:

The PTI’s decision to choke Nato supply routes could deprive Pakistan of billions of dollars it receives from the United States in financial aid, according to experts and government officials.

Under the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) agreement with the US, Pakistan receives an estimated $1,500-1,800 for every truck that carries supplies for Nato forces through the country, government officials said. This is a revised fee according to officials of the interior ministry. The bill amounts to roughly $1 million per day, they added.

In addition to depriving Pakistan of the direct payment it receives for allowing Nato supplies to pass through its territory, violating the GLOC agreement may also prompt the US to withhold the $1.2 billion Pakistan hopes to receive under the Coalition Support Fund, the officials said. The amount has already been included in the country’s budget for the current fiscal year.

According to senior analyst Kamran Shafi, PTI’s move could also lead to UN sanctions against Pakistan, which would further deprive the country of billions of dollars it earns from trade. Pakistan’s exports to EU countries, for instance, stood at $6 billion last year.

Quoting the statement of the minister of state for finance that Pakistan is expecting exports to EU countries to yield an additional $700 million to $1 billion (this year), Shafi advised the PTI leadership to avoid listening to party hardliners. “They will not only isolate Pakistan but create trouble for the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government as well,” he said.

Defence analyst Lt Gen (retd) Talat Masood said blocking Nato supplies has both internal and external implications for Pakistan.

“Choking Nato supply routes definitely violates the UN resolution [on Afghanistan], our Constitution and all our agreements with the US and Nato… [It] will not only harm the work of international forces in Afghanistan, but will also harm our own national interests at a time when the US and Nato are set to withdraw from the country,” he said.

The federal government has yet to decide what to do in response to PTI’s decision.

According to some sources, the government could make alternative arrangements to allow supplies to Nato forces in Afghanistan to pass through its territory. Options include providing an alternate route through the Chaman border or allowing the use of Pakistan’s airspace for Nato supplies in case protesters continue to stop trucks in K-P. Whether a decision had been made in this regard, however, could not be confirmed till the filing of this story.

Information Minister Pervaiz Rasheed said the federal government is closely monitoring the steps the PTI government in K-P has taken to block Nato supply trucks. “We will make a firm decision if the PTI carries out its plan… Frankly, it is against the state’s interest,” he said while talking to The Express Tribune.

Speaking at an event earlier in Lahore, he stressed Imran Khan’s move would not serve the country well. “Imran appears to be bent on ruining Pakistan’s ties with international community… Pakistan cannot afford the politics of isolation, as it needs friends not foes in today’s world,” he said.

Under the law, the K-P government cannot stop Nato supplies, said constitutional law expert Qazi Anwar. It’s the subject of the federal government, he said.

“The only way the PTI can stop the supplies is by urging the public to block the routes… A federating unit does not have a say in abiding by or breaking with any international agreements or treaties.”

Meanwhile, Foreign Office Spokesperson Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry said the foreign ministry has yet to receive any formal or informal reaction from the US or Nato.

He made it clear, however, that the interior and finance ministries were dealing with all logistics agreements with the US and Nato countries.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 25^th, 2013.

An amendment was made to this article, clarifying that $1,500-1,800 per truck is a revised fee.