Afghan transitions and scenarios

Real issue between Pakistan, Afghanistan is not border management but sourcing out borders to militants, warlords.

Afghanistan is going through a number of transitions as the time for the withdrawal of ISAF forces draws closer. Most well known of them is the security transition. The Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) is taking over the responsibility of combating the Taliban insurgents, from the international forces. The security transition is in an advanced stage and so far, by and large, the ANSF has done well in the battlefield. The Afghan police, as the face of the Afghan state, is bearing the brunt of the insurgent attacks. The insurgents are still capable of launching spectacular attacks but are largely dependent on hit-and-run tactics. They are no match for the Afghan National Army in frontal attacks and holding positions. The Afghan economy has been largely dependent on the money injected from abroad as economic assistance or paid-for services and logistics, and the absence of international forces will greatly change the situation. Unfortunately, most Afghan politicians are not paying attention to this issue and are taking international assistance for granted.

The transition that is most talked about these days is the presidential election, which is to be held in April next year. After the commencement of the Bonn process, it is the first election which President Hamid Karzai will not be contesting. Afghans are both excited and concerned about the presidential election as it can become a defining moment for the nascent democracy.

Interestingly, the least talked about transition is the one that would come about through reconciliation. This important transition lies on the back burner right now. Political observers are of the opinion that much will depend on the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the US. Results of the Afghan presidential election will be an important factor in shaping the future reconciliation process.

The real question is how far the cumulative impact of the aforementioned transitions can lead Afghanistan towards establishing peace and strengthening democracy. It is clear that unlike in the 1990s, almost all important international powers are deeply interested in the peace and stability of Afghanistan. Highly credible diplomatic sources in Kabul say that China and Russia have given a green signal to the Afghan government to enter into the BSA with the US for maintaining a small US force in Afghanistan. Russia has a few thousand troops stationed near the Afghan-Tajik border, which can get sucked in the conflict if it escalates. China can face the fallout of a chaotic Afghanistan in Xinjiang. So, all the stakeholders are bracing for the post-withdrawal scenarios. On November 10, there was a meeting among the diplomats of China, Russia and India in Delhi. All three countries have agreed to work together for peace and stability in Afghanistan. The new Iranian government is in the process of re-evaluating the country’s Afghan policy. Turkey is an active player in the Afghan endgame.

Afghan society has changed over the last decade. People have tasted political empowerment through elections. Education is spreading. There is a vibrant and dynamic media. Although governance and economy are facing serious challenges, the country is not torn by civil war like it was in the 1990s. Under these circumstances, will Pakistan revisit its Afghan policy and reform it on the basis of objective realities or stick to the traditional policy of insisting on exporting an ‘Islamic Emirate’ in our neighbouring country? This flawed policy has already damaged Pakistan and has great potential for inflicting further damage. It has no takers in Afghanistan and if Pakistan fails to grow out of this quagmire beyond 2014, it can lead to its international isolation. Pakistan cannot meaningfully engage with either the present Afghan government or other factions as long as it remains in a stiflingly tight embrace with the Taliban. Hence, our government’s rhetoric about ‘an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process’ sounds hollow. We have to learn to befriend Afghanistan as a country and not confine our friendship to certain Afghan group(s). Last but not the least, the real issue between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not border management (that can be worked out in the long term) but the sourcing out of borders to militant groups and warlords. If both sides take effective steps to resolve it, they can create an atmosphere conducive to peace in the region.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 19^th, 2013.

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