Similarly, the Aam Aadmi Party, progeny of the Anna Hazare-led Lokpal movement, has seen a rise in fortunes. When it became a party, everybody said it would win zero seats even in the Delhi state elections, which is practically all it is trying for at the moment. Some weeks ago, the consensus was that it could win a few seats, in single digit, in an assembly with 72 seats. Now, a lot of people seem to think it will cross double digits. One pre-poll survey even says it could win up to 25 seats, making sure neither the BJP nor the Congress forms the government in Delhi.
The popular perception of how many seats a party is going to win seems to be easily calculable like the daily rise and fall of the stock markets. Just as you can make a lot of money through the stock markets just by speculating over notional wealth, you can win elections simply by creating a ‘hawa’. If you can create a notional wave, you can ride it.
Rahul Gandhi recently told party workers that the 2014 general elections weren’t a matter of life and death for the Congress. In so giving away that he’s okay with losing the election, Rahul Gandhi has made it clear that he’s not even trying to make a hawa out of thin air. He did the same in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2012, when he went around addressing three to four rallies a day just to tell people that even if they don’t vote for him, he’d be there for them. Translation: I know I’m losing. What sort of a politician fights an election by saying he’s losing it?
If the hawa is about creating perceptions to shape reality, this is not to say elections are about vacuous statements parties and candidates issue, or the gibberish that TV news churns out. But even the real issues of elections seem to be something other than what they are. For instance, if you are following the Delhi media discourse and the hand-wringing of the intelligentsia, you’d think the main issue in this election is whether Modi is a good guy or a bad guy. You’d be forgiven to think that Modi’s rise is a sign that India is tilting to the right.
But if you look at it from the voter’s vantage point, the Indian voter has been voting largely on the basis of the economic performance of the government. This voter voted out a fairly popular Vajpayee government when it said India was Shining and rewarded the Manmohan Singh government with a second term when it did things like initiating a rural employment programme. Today, the common man’s biggest issue is inflation. The disposable incomes that came with rising wages have been wiped away.
Supposing a good liberal-secularist intellectual were to go to the voter and say please don’t vote for Modi, he’s a bad guy, he kills Muslims, the voter might turn around and ask: who do I vote for? This shameless Congress? Again? So that food inflation goes from 18 to 80 per cent?
The dilemma doesn’t end there. The liberal-left is banking on the presumption that if Modi does become prime minister, he’ll be a failure. What if Modi becomes prime minister, doesn’t kill Muslims, turns the economy around, builds roads and ports, sends air-kisses to Islamabad, Beijing and Washington alike? What will we, the liberal-secularists, be left with to say? Bring back the Congress? The danger in that sort of a situation is that Modi could become a Rajapakse-like strongman. His coalition allies could become timid, the media pliant and nobody will hear the dissenters.
The scary thought is not that Modi could ride the hawa, but that he could sustain it. Rahul Gandhi will get more time to holiday in London.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 1st, 2013.
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COMMENTS (36)
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Not sure why Modi is being revered as a savior even before he has done anything of consequence at a national level. What worked for Gujarat (specifically industrialization) may not work for everybody everywhere. At the end of the day, he is just another politician. When 2014 results are out, there would be no single party with clear majority (as usual) and then alliances would be formed with regional parties (as usual) and the government would be hostage to their whims and fancies (as usual).
Btw, just something to ponder about, politicians of our country haven't appeared from Mars, they have risen from the very society we live in. The point being, we, common citizens aren't really a model/ideal society to begin with and get what we deserve in form of crappy politicians and bureaucrats. While people may rant about India rising and shining since early 2000, just take a look around, we are pretty much down in the dumps. Btw, before starting to bash this comment, just spend some time to introspect.
Modi shinning in media is akin to as India was shinning under Vajpayee and Pramod a Mahajan. That time also, BJP supporters were all gung-ho of BJP winning hands down based on so-called "wave". Same thing happens now, Modi and his US based media consultant have managed to create ripple in media by making outrageous statements and pack of lies. Modi was disaster during last state elections, people of Karnataka booted out Modi. Garnering support during election rally not necessary converts into votes. Even in Gujarat , share of BJP is falling. Feku Modi is a most divisive leader in modern India. He more known for gaffes, lies , loud statements, tall claims . Educated Indians are able to see through the communal agenda , which is being masked by Feku making tall claims on development. If such lier becomes leader, imagine the damage it can do growth story of a india.gujarat under Modi has been growing slower than many states of a india.
With friends like thse authors Modi has no need for any critics.they with their incessant propaganda will make more and more popular and that is why he is succeeding everyday.
@np: I accept your forceful arguments & concede:-Modi is the best among the worst.
Sounds difficult for the pseudo secularists and the bleeding heart liberals to assimilate. Modi is coming. BJP will be the largest party in the house and irrespective of who forms the next government, policies including the relationship with Pakistan will be dictated by Modi and his team and not Rahul and his team of liberal pseudo secular bafoons.
@Rakib: Better than Mayawati and Jaylalita on that count. Better than Laloo who is now in jail and will be ineligible to contest. Better than Mulayam who is unable to control communal riots in his state unlike Modi who brought the one communal riot in his state to a halt in 3 days and has not allowed a single riot since then. Better than Rahul who really has no accomplishments - either on legislative nor executive front to demonstrate having never presented a bill or served as a minister. Better than Mamata who continues to drive away investment from WB.
HE maynot be perfect but is better than all the options available.
I know India is blessed with millions more writers and papers than Pakistan. Then why Pak papers have to caters to their domestic issues here. Or does Indian manufacturers place their ads here too? I mean are we out of necessary Pak news and topics? Beside crime news all other news are foreign. So we have nothing else going here? I don't think so, really!
Modi is the best thing to have happened to India after Sardar Vallabhai Patel.
@GP65 : Thanks for that.......and what you say is by now quite clear and understood. What amuses me ( as I am a neutral observer ) is the way the media is building up Modi, using the clever ploy of presenting a negative idea to infact endorse the main idea ( Modi ). I may be wrong but with all the Modi hype floating around ( at least on this site ) I am inclined to think like this.
@Rakib:
If you are trying to be sarcastic, I agree. But if you are, then you are not doing a good job.
I don't see the reason why he needs to build a statue by spending 2k crores.
@water bottle:
Exactly!
Its like saying Bush will turn into a dictator before Obama came along.
Indians fought tooth and nail when Indira Gandhi imposed her Emergency. Many of the leaders today - Vajpayee, an example - spent time in jail.
No dictator can rule India. Democracy is in its blood.
I dislike anyone who thinks India is that vulnerable and its foundations shaky. The founding fathers made sure the system is unbreakable, coupled with people wishes, its just not possible for a dictator to take hold.
Time to give Mr.Modi a chance . Shameless cong gov has defeated us.
The Man shows his great vision, foresight, pragmatic wisdom & uncanny instinct for getting priorities right by commencing the building of the tallest idol in the world! Such are the best among men that 21st century India can find as leaders.
Modi is the best hope for India, provided, he doesn't turn into a dictator.
But then, can a dictator really survive in india?
Shivam Vij Esq. : . Modi has got your goat - hasn't he? . Modi killed no Muslims. The Gujarat Carnage started with the Muslim Mob setting a Coach full of Yatris (Pilgrims) returning from Pilgrimage on fire. When will your so-called Liberal-Secular get your act together and put the facts on Paper? . Of course Modi is Developing the Infrastructure in Gujarat and today Gujarat Ports handle may be 30% - if not more - of India's Maritime Trade. . I am waiting for the Pakistani Port of Gwadar to compete with the Ports of Mundra, Kandla and Jamnagar which this year i.e. 2013-2014 should handle about 100 Million tonnes, 90 Million Tonnes and about 120 Million tonnes respectively - the last one with the Reliance and Essar Terminals. . Cheers
Let us change the topic, for a change...
Modi, Modi, Modi... Why this Kolavery, Kolavery, Kolavery dee...
Why this toxic obsession with Modi... plz come out of this paranoia ...
I am dumbstruck. So the problem is now not even Modi winning, but Modi delivering that scares our leftist friends. God help us.
"The danger in that sort of a situation is that Modi could become a Rajapakse-like strongman. His coalition allies could become timid, the media pliant and nobody will hear the dissenters."
Nice to see Modi all over world media now. As far as above statement is concerned, it seems this author has forgotten the fate of Indira Gandhi in 1977 and does not know how innocent looking Indian voters react to dictators. Its just a wave so far. Rest assured it will be Modi hurricane by the time elections are due. Many political trees are going to be uprooted and many power lines will fall on ground. Rest assured, Indian voters won't allow Modi or anyone else to become dictator.
After 47,Modi wave is first big lucky break for Indians to go back to their civilizational roots as well plant new crop of ideas for their future.Coming Election in India can be treated as Wazoo to wash and clean the body from filthy stuff.Modi as PM of India will be equal to Aazaan for the Bharti People . And the patriotic wave will be like Tsunami for the removal all the odious detritus elemnts from Indian soil and be washed in the warm water of Hindu Mahasagar. All those friends of India should wish us well and let the enemies be sad.
What I see is that this ' wave ' has been created more by the media ( guys like you ) and its the same media that is wringing its hands and predicting various scenarios thereby building the ' wave ' further........its like a vicious cycle or its very clever journalism.
Why are you obsessed about Sri Lankan president? Are you aware of atrocities committed by Tamil separatists? Why don't you write about the brutal oppression of the Balochi people by Pakistan Army? Or how the Chinese have ethnic cleansed and occupied with flooding Han Chinese into Muslim and Buddhist lands. No? Not for discussion?
The BJP under Modi will get one chance for sure..now or later. I don't understand as to why Pakistanis need to be apprehensive about it. Congress government has done a lot of meddling in last 7-8 years, from Baluchistan to FATA,so it cannot be any worse...because even under Modi, the feats of Indira Gandhi (1971) can never be repeated,unless BJP wants 'MAD'...'mutually assured destruction'.
I will vote for modi because he is pro-development, pro-education etc. He will have a tough stance on terrorism, i have had enough of this so called secular Congress and biased media. Rahul and madam are safe in their z plus security while normal people suffer from sporadic terror plots. Just think if patna blast would have happened in some Bjp ruled state, there would have been sponsored news campaign against Bjp but now it's not even in news anymore.
@Author : Do you ever think of writing about anybody/anything other than Modi ?
Nothing to be scared of Modi.......This fear psychosis is made up.........I hope India will vote for development......out of 66 yrs there have been Congress govt for 55 yrs still India is relatively poor..........Why????? Misgovernance, corruption etc........Time to give somebody else a Chance......