The writer is a consulting editor with The Statesman and writes for several newspapers in India
Narendra Modi is trying to compensate by building a cult wave around his persona with a magic wand for development in one hand and the RSS agenda for India in the other. Rahul Gandhi has gone back to the martyrdom of his family, laying his own head on the block in an emotional outburst. The brunt of Modi’s campaign is directed against the Nehru-Gandhi family. The brunt of Gandhi’s campaign has yet to assume a direction.
In the midst of this frenzy, are the regional satraps who are seen by the same sections as fractious, irresponsible and unstable. This remains the media projection of even serious leaders like Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha, who have been administering their respective states with a high degree of capability and competence. Just because they are not from the BJP or the Congress, their merits are clouded under the created umbrella of ‘instability’ while the omissions and grave commissions of the other two are glossed over completely.
Currently the Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, has emerged as the big industry and the media favourite. He can do no wrong for those who are part of the sustained campaign to project him as the next prime minister of India. This enthusiasm is still not being echoed in the villages of India, where the Biju Janata Dal, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Janata Dal (United), the AIADMK, the Janata Dal (Secular) and others hold their own. Many of them are coming together, along with the Left parties and others, in a major convention against communalism being held in Delhi on October 30.
Given the recent incidents of violence, it is clear that India’s two largest states in the north are facing the threat of growing, or should one say created, communalism. The BJP and the Congress have not been able to get more than a simple majority in Parliament, and currently not even that, because of the resistance from these states where the voter has shunned the so-called ‘mainstream’ options for the regional alternatives. Unlike Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh where the electoral competition is directly between the Congress and the BJP, in UP and Bihar the third alternative has become the first alternative for the voters. UP is currently being governed by the Samajwadi Party with Akhilesh Yadav as the chief minister, while Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) is the chief minister of Bihar and is perceived by many as a potential prime ministerial candidate. Significantly, the regional parties head the opposition in these states, with Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj party in the lead in UP, and Lalu Prasad Yadav (currently in jail) and his Rashtriya Janata Dal still a force to reckon with in Bihar.
The design thus, is to polarise communities through increased communal violence so that those who have been shunned by the UP and Bihar electorate in the normal course, manage to get a crucial chunk of the votes. But Bihar, at least, is under an able and what is equally important, sober administrator and Nitish Kumar has been in the field long enough to counter the manipulations. And UP has the advantage of a strong opposition leader in Mayawati, who is not going to easily allow the anti-Samajwadi party vote to drift towards the BJP, or for that matter, the Congress party. In other words, there will be a tough fight in the two crucial states with the odds still favouring the regional stalwarts.
There will be few alignments before the elections, with all preferring to take a call after the polls. The number of seats is thus crucial for all, and the electoral fight will be sharp and the contest keen. Indians are hoping, of course, that violence will not be used as an election strategy, and the main parties in the fray will allow peace and harmony to prevail. But there is a sense of unease as the build-up has not been particularly tranquil.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 26th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (33)
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@Debmalya: Keep wishing. Muslim nations don't need oil, but human productivity, independence, and security to progress. In my statement which you misunderstood, 'rising' should be interpreted as upliftment, not population growth.
Pakistan has a bright future, regardless of your wishes and evil hopes. Pakistan has more potential than any other nation. Someone in Heaven is looking out for us.
@Bakhtiyar Ghazi Khan:
"the Muslim populations of the world are rising."
Is this a sign of progress??
@Maula Jatt:
You don't understand logic, okay let Muslim countries boycott us, we are dependent on them for energy, that is why you are threatening us, I know so hear it, Muslim countries with oil reserves will sell oil to India because they can't ignore such a market and depend on us because you know the fate of every weak Muslims country with oil reserves, America is eiather invading or controlling those countries, even the King of UAE is also under USA control so they better sell their oil or they'll become weak and their country will be either invaded or controlled by America, You also know the fate of the Muslim countries without oil reserves such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, Somalia, they are also can't provide their citizens basic facilities and literally controlled by America and China, that is why America can send in their drones in Pakistan so these countries can't hurt us!!
In the mean time we are experimenting on Hydrogen Fuel Cells and we have reservoir of Thorium so energy will not be a problem and with Mr Modi we'll have a strong Govt and will have a self sufficient country in power and defense!!
@Maula Jatt:
and Pakistan also had some duties to protect its minorities but severely failed, what about that?? waah waah from a single riot you made him war criminal, dude war criminal is something else and FYI Modi is not proven guilty even by continuous investigation by Supreme Court Appointed SIT!!
At least in our country we see many people from majority community who'll fight to death for minority community's well-being and safety, can't say the same for Pakistan do we??
@visu: There are no Muslims or Christians left in Indian Punjab since you massacred them all after Partition.
madam Seema Mustafa i know only after reading your name that what you going to write. You are blaming modi what about your religion of peace thet are the main reason for communal violance and punjab is the biggest example of it .There are no riots in Punjab because there are no Peace lover there.
and about villages you have no idea i came from a village of west UP where pepole will give thier vote to BJP in 2014 Loksabha just because of Modi
@G. Din: Typical of a Hindu extremist, you again attempt to change the subject into bashing the Islamic religion. You can't deny the legitimate rights of Muslim majorities to govern themselves the way they see fit, because this point can never be overlooked.
You should know that Muslims governing through the laws of Islam and the Islamic social, civil heritage gave rise to the greatest empires in Asia, namely the Ottoman and Mughal empires. As an Indian, you cannot deny the advance of civilization and greatness of Mughal Muslim rule. You are still living in the shadow of it.
As long as any nation attempts to exploit and deny the God-given right of Muslim people to live as they wish, they will face resistance. From Palestine to Kashmir, Muslim populations are struggling daily for their God-given rights to live as they wish under the laws of Islam. Oppression will come to an end, and the Muslim populations of the world are rising.
@Bakhtiyar Ghazi Khan: My comment in no way dealt with the merits or demerits of Muslim causes. There are many that would argue that before Islam even came into being, there were people who led peaceful lives until Islam barbarously overpowered them. So there was a history before Islam which Muslims do not seem to recognize. Struggle for Palestine, for instance, completely negates the existence of a flourishing Jewish civilization in the same area for thousands of years. My comment was directly related to threats we hear from Muslims like you how, if non-Muslims do not bend to their will/wishes, we would invite " massive boycott and sanctions" from all Muslim countries. If we do not break into a guffaw at such threats, it certainly taxes our politeness and self-control. Before you issued such a threat to India, did you consider precisely who would issue such a threat? Forget about making good on it. Muslims everywhere are at odds with each other. Look at the bloodbath going on in your own country before looking at Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Libya where Sunnis are bludgeoning each other and Shias are waiting to bludgeon any who would be left standing. It is a mark of immaturity to issue threats you cannot make good on. Making such threats leads to becoming butt of jokes of those you threaten. That is humiliating, don't you think?
@G. Din: In all those territories which you listed, can you dispute that Muslims are the overwhelming majority population in those regions? Go back 60-100 years, most of those nations which you listed were independent Islamic states based on Shariah which were occupied by invading Non-Muslim states taking advantage of the fall of Muslim empires like Ottoman, Mughals, etc How can you possibly deny the right of a Muslim majority population to govern by the laws of their religion and to exercise their God-given right to rule themselves as they wish, without occupation, genocide, and exploitation of more powerful Non-Muslim occupiers. Resurgence of these Muslim regions is due to democratic will and aspiration of freedom, which can never be crushed by force.
@Gp65: According to a typical Hindu zealot like yourself, Muslims were not massacred enmasse in Gujurat. Not only do you deny the charge, but attempt to mitigate the suffering of those Indian Muslims which the Indian government is duty-bound to protect, yes, even against Hindu mobs. Typical of a fanatic, you are again casting the blame on Indian Muslims, who were, are, and always have been the principle victims as a result of frenzied Hindu mob activity against them. Your warped and dangerous thinking is the most damaging to your credibility as a "secular" and democratic" country. You don't need Pakistan, you are doing a fine job of destroying India yourselves.
@Maula Jatt: "Otherwise, they should prepare for a massive boycott and sanctions from Muslim countries." Let us see now, all the hot spots in the world are where Muslims are being butchered: Palestine. Chechnya, Mindanao, Xingiang, South Malaysia, Myanmar even Kashmir. How many of those countries have been subject to " massive boycott and sanctions from Muslim countries"? In addition, practically all countries with sizable Muslim minorities are "discriminating" against Muslims by formulating laws to ban their symbols, customs, movement etc. apart from socially ostracizing them. How many Muslim countries have protested against such treatment of their Muslim brothers.? Even assuming that all Muslim countries do boycott any or all of such countries, who, do you think, will be hurt more? Impoverished backward Muslim countries or the rest of those countries who will just shrug their shoulders and carry on, including India. Stop living in your make-believe la-la land. No one even gives a damn to mythical, so-called Muslim Unity and brotherhood. Every country, Muslim or otherwise, follows its narrow national interests, except that in Muslim countries such interests belong to only the ruling cliques like sheikhs, ayatollahs, emirs and generals.
@gp65: Again, you are justifying violence against Indian Muslims by justifying the rationale for Hindu fanatics rampaging and butchering minority Muslims. In Gujurat, the vast majority of those 3,000 raped, massacred, and burnt alive were Muslims. Modi and his thugs arrested Muslims en masse, and even sent their BJP goons to interfere with police work.
India needs to stop justifying communal mob violence from Hindu fanatics. Otherwise, they should prepare for a massive boycott and sanctions from Muslim countries.
ETBLOGS1987
ET mods - pls allow response to someone who has made an unfair and unjustified accusation.
@Maula Jatt: I have never justified violence against innocents of any community be they Hindu or Muslim. However when a riot gets started by Muslims killing Hindus (1993 Mumbai, 2002 Gujarat, 2013 Muzaffarnagar) and Hindus retaliate and in ensuing riots both Hindus and Muslims die, it seems quite unfair to describe Muslims alone as victims. That is the only point I was making.
Are you aware what happened in Muzaffarnagar? Some Muslim boys were harassing Hindu girls. Some Hindu boys including the girl's brother protested and the Muslims killed 2 Himdu boys. Of course after that there was a free for all and innocent people from both communities were killed which is highly regrettable. But if you describe this as victimization of Muslims, I am sorry but I must disagree. At the same time, the police can and should arrest the people who fanned the flames of hate on both sides and prosecute them. This is what happened in Gujarat and this is what I hope will happen here as well.
Over the years the frequency and severity of riots has been decreasing significantly in Indiaand I have every reason to hope that as the law enforcement agencies and electorate show their intolerance for the hate mongers, over time this issue will disappear in India. Please do focus on fixing your own backyard in the meanwhile.
ETBLOGS1987
@x: For someone so young, you have shown remarkable astuteness in sizing p the situation as I see in your response to @manish rowhera.
The slight difference between PTI and BJP is that BJP and Modi do have a track record of ruling states. Most of the well ruled states are urgently governed by NDA (BJP and allies) not UPA( Congress and allies). But other than that there are similarities that Omran was seen as non corrupt and same is true of Modi. PTI. Is one of the few non dynastic parties and same is true of BJP. So you can take BJP as a sort of cross between PTI and PML-N except that BJP has a very tough anti terror stance.
@Anonymous: You maybe right as far as this specific article is concerned.. But please check her last 10 articles. 8 out of 10 are about some anti-Modi tripe. Also does it not show bias when supporters of a self made lower caste man who has risen to the top in a non- dynastic party are called a cult? What then would you call supporters of a man who has absolutely no accomplishments to his credit and yet publicly humiliates the PM who is from his own party and has leadership thrust upon him due to the family he was born? Please read this author's descrtion of Rahulbaba in earlier posts.
This lady's track record leads people to read between the lines and draw conclusions that perhaps may not be laid if this were the very first article she wrote.
@zaman ali: So please tell me why are law aboding Muslims shooting girls in school buses after identifying they are Shia? Why are the kidnapping, raping and forcibly converting Hindu women? Why do they burn colonies of Christians? Stop making excuses. There are some sects who are encouraged o be violent towards 'others' in Friday khutbas. They get away with no consequences in countries where they are a majority and in countries where they are a minority and retaliation inevitably follows, they complain about Islamophobia. .
ETBLOGS1987
@Parvez: The Indian system is a parliamentary system and there are 542 seats in Lok Sabha which is the lower house and which has directly elected people in it. It is the duty of the President to invite the party with highest number of seats o form the government.. If within a certain timeframe the leader of the largest party is unable to prove support of 272 Lok Sabha MPs (Member of Parliament) then anyone from another party who can Prove such support is invited to form the government.
There have been occasions in the past where Congress Was not the largest party but supported a tiny party 'from the outside' . Thus the PM was from that tiny party but for the short time that the government lasted, it had to toe Congress orders. Then when Congress felt ready to face new elections, it pulled the rug and passed a motion of no confidence.
The other point is that no one expects either Congress or BJP to win 272 seats. In such a situation, they need support from regional parties that have won 20-30 seats and such parties get disproportionate say compared to the vote percentage or seats that they have won. An example in your own environment might be the say that JI has in the KPK government.
@x not sure why you feel there is an anti Muslim bias. I cannot say that there are absolutely no bigots in India but i can say that bigotry is not common. Personally I find it regrettable if any innocent person is killed be it Hindu or Muslim. But I am sick and tired of post Godhara riots that lasted for a total of 3 days after which there have been no riots in Gujarat for 11 years, as a way of fear mongering among Muslims outside Gujarat. Please note that after living under Modi for 11 years, Gujarati Muslims no longer are fooled and have voted for Modi in the last election. Also while it is politically incorrect, it cannot be ignored that all major riots in India in the last 20 years that I recall we're started by Some Muslims killing Hindus. The onus of maintaining peace has to be on both sides. And to describe an aggressor as a victim when the the other side retaliates seems unreasonable to me and that is what I see has been happening.
@gp65: Why do you blame Indian Muslims for being the victims of widescale rape, torture, and genocide by Hindu fanatical mobs? Have some shame, and stop supporting these Hindu communalists. You have a duty to protect your Muslim minority.
Also, I want to see what Muslim nations do when India elects a known war criminal and mass rapist of Muslims as PM. I am sure that India will face severe sanctions and shortages of energy. Not to mention the reaction of India's Muslims and Kashmiris. This time you have only yourselves to blame, you can't blame Pakistan for this.
This must be the 50th article about Modi on ET, just in this year. Apparently he seems to be a moneymaker for ET. Indian elections are still atleast 7 months away. Even Indian media haven't given as much publisicty to Mr. Modi as the two authors and several "bloggers" on ET have. Did Modi pay ET to run a publicity campaign for him in Pakistan?
@manish rohera: Yes, sadly, i do realize it. If a parallel can be drawn, congress would be the equivalent of dynastic rules of PPP, PML-N (more PPP though with its liberal credentials and history of 'sacrifices' while Modi would be the equivalent of PTI (perceived as right wing but hard working, efficient, different and appealing to the youth).
I think, we Indians are slightly over-criticizing this article. In my opinion, I do not see Ms. Mustafa ranting against Modi anywhere in this article, albeit presenting some profound data points. And to be honest I agree with the data points more or less, though I am a fan of Modi and support Modi for the coming term. In addition, I do not think BJP has an appropriate leadership post Modi to lead India towards advancement, therefore, it is in India's interest to create space for a third party to gain strength, and that space in my opinion is well leveraged and rightly so by the AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal. I sincerely feel that BJP should overthrow Congress the coming term and give way to AAP in the next term for the betterment of India. ---Indian
@x: My friend I would acknowledge some bias but Muslims in India are also responsible for it when a major lot of community wears religion on their sleeves this is bound to happen see for the instance some Muslim writers who have said they have problem with Modi's brand of secularism that is India First because they think many Muslim youth may disagree with it these writers who should be torch bearer of enlightenment for the Muslim youth are actually creating further prejudice very few are as pragmatic as you the columnist was the a part of team that visited the ground zero of recent communal violence in India is not writing on the mis-governance of the ruling SP but again harping on Modi and why he won't win 2014 general elections I hope you realize the intricacies and complexities of it
How many villages have you or the media visited Ms.Mustafa to say that Mr Modi is not popular in villages? You fail to acknowledge that it is the political manoeuvring that, as usual, the Congress indulges in that has caught them napping. Modi is a seasoned politician who knows what he is talking, whereas Rahul, the prince in waiting, has absolutely nothing in him to qualify himself to be PM. All the failings and instances of corruption of the present Congress-led govt are because of the Gandhis, but the blame is laid at MMSingh's door. People have seen through the game and Rahul is captaining a sinking ship.
How does the Indian election process system work ? Not being fully aware, I can guess that a certain X number is required to form a government. BJP/Modi will most probably not make this number and he will have to work his magic with the smaller parties to do so. The Congress will use the tricks it has up its sleeve, including inciting communal feelings, to hold the BJP back but as of now it looks like it will fail, simply because India appears tired of Congress and dynastic politics. I thought your take on the subject was fair but you seem to give the impression that the smaller players are more important than what is being portrayed and that seems a bit misleading.
@zaman ali - "generally muslims are the most law abiding in the world, unless they are provoked"
Er.... Muslims of which sect???
Another typical rant against Modi. It seems Ms Mustafa has not noticed the rallies in UP and Rajasthan where ordinary poor people came to listen to him.The so called third front of Non-Cong non-BJP parties cant form govt on their own. They will need support of either Cong or BJP. Also each leader of this front nurtures PM ambitions, Mulayam Mayawati Nitish. Do u think they will tolerate each other? Look at the last 11 years of Guj. Not a single curfew no trouble to Muslims. Infact poverty reduction of Guj Muslims in last 11 years has been remarkable. No wonder NEWSX channel in which she works is seen as another pseudo secular channel that rants against Modi
The comments here show Muslim bias. Not denying Muslim extremists exist (although why thye are called extremists is beyond me, they are not the extreme of religion, no 'extreme' of any religion encompasses their warbled ideas and crazy misguided fanatic deeds) but please accept that people of other religions harbor 'extremists' too. As a young Pakistani, I advocate good ties with India while realizing what hurdles and misconceptions exist on both sides not to mention the chequered history. I think Modi would be a good leader for India in terms of leading to economic prosperity. As for ties regarding Pakistan, he seems a smart guy and if our leaders are smart too, ways can be found provided there is a will. Bad relations suit no one. Modi seems hard working, enthusiastic and clever; if he's opinionated and sometimes arrogant, all good leaders inevitably have those traits. Plus i abhor dynastic politics and Congress seems just a step behind our PPP and I wouldnt wish that fate on India.
If BJP wins 200 seats and Congress wins 100+ seats-this scenario seems quite possible and likely, BJP will form govt and other regional parties will join BJP alliance. You are not expecting parties with 20 seats are less to have a PM? Even if that happens it will be a very unstable central govt.
But then I don't get the vibe stability and welfare of India are your priorities.
You and leftist extremists should run a vicious anti-Modi campaign for the next 8 months, sure bet way to elect Modi as PM.
generally muslims are the most law abiding in the world, unless they are provoked. muslims have high crime statistics in the UK because they are in the lower echelons of society. that happens everywhere in the world where people are in similar situation, they tend dealing to be involved in petty crime, drug dealing and sex trade and so on. hopefully things are changing for the better in the uk, because a lot of the new generation of muslims are flocking to universities.
what a lame article.........even all the so called regional parties come together they will need either BJP or Congress....... Mamta and left will never some together,some for DMK-AIADMK , BSP-SP etc..Calling Nawajwadi party secular is biggest joke of our time........ Regarding Nitish we see what happens in Bihar, he will not get more than 10 seats.......
Modi ?? Oh no, not again...
Ms Mustafa, I hate to disappoint you but it is now well accepted in the West that Mr Modi is going to be the next PM of India. You may well ask yourself what it means . It means that if the villagers (majority are illiterate) want the Congress party, which hands out "bribes" to them, the old style of corruption is coming to an end. Remember, India has one of the highest number of middle class (the educated) and it is them now that will determine the destiny of India. Europe and USA have now accepted that Mr Modi is the person they have to please and hence the lifting of "sanctions" on him. They realise that when there are law breakers then they have to be punished. It just so happens that these law breakers were majority muslims and rightly so he punished them. That is in common with what is going on in Europe and USA where the highest number of crime relatively is committed by muslims. I just do not understand why Pakistanis want muslims to be treated as "superior" when we are so behind of the rest in the developed world. We need to identify the problem with ourselves and then ask others to clean their backyard. is that too much to ask?