Melting glaciers

Trying to predict climate change's impact on glaciers in as large and inaccessible an area as Himalayas is not easy.

During this past week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released its latest summary concerning the current state of global warming. This summary report is part of a trilogy of findings that will be released over the next year, which reaffirm the persistence of climate changes occurring due to human activities. The IPCC has, however, admitted to an error in its previous assessment, produced five years ago, which claimed that the Himalayan glaciers could disappear by the year 2035. The 2007 IPCC claim concerning the Himalayan glacial melt had caused severe damage to the reputation of the Nobel Prize winning entity formed by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environmental Programme.

Several glaciologists subsequently contradicted the IPCC assessment. Other scientific studies, for example, have suggested that the glacial melt in the Himalayas is being compensated by an increase in precipitation. The IPCC assertion, however, created much confusion and alarm. The resulting concern was understandable given that the Himalayas hold the planet’s largest body of ice outside the polar caps, which feed many of the world’s major river systems (Indus, Ganges and the Brahmaputra), on which the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people depend.

Trying to predict the impact of climate change on glaciers in such a large and inaccessible area as the Himalayas, plagued by intra-regional rivalries, is not easy. This time around, the IPCC has thus admitted that its earlier assessment was ‘poorly substantiated’, yet it maintains its position that glaciers are melting across the globe. While the Himalayan glaciers may not vanish by 2035, the IPCC still considers the pace at which they are melting to be a major problem. The panel’s current report points out that this glacial melt is going to cause changes in water flows even before 2035, which will directly impact the lives of hundreds of millions of people in South Asia and China.

While there is still uncertainty, the evidence compiled from diverse sources describes the Himalayas as being at the forefront of global climate change. Many of the countries in this region are already water-stressed, including Pakistan. Changes in water availability due to climate change will make matters worse. Moreover, dam construction is already a major source of friction across borders. For example, dams in India already affect the flow of silt into Bangladesh, which is critical to maintaining the Sundarbans as a forest barrier against flooding. Pakistan is also very concerned about Indian attempts to build dams on the Indus. Uncertainty in water flows due to the Himalayan glacial melt will cause further complications.

Unfortunately, while the need for water sharing is vital for the welfare of citizens across the different countries of this populous region, cooperation in this regard has been largely rhetorical. Existing institutions, such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, have done little in the sphere of water management.

Reducing water stress in the Himalayan region will depend on the foresight and commitment of decision-makers in key regional countries like China, India and Pakistan. Unless there is more evidence to this effect, the expected changes in water availability are bound to threaten the region’s agricultural economies, impede economic development, exacerbate public health challenges, increase the frequency of natural disasters such as flooding and droughts and heighten chances of violent conflict.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 4^th, 2013.

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