Middle East situation: ‘Region to remain in turmoil’

After Syria, Libya may take centre stage, says analyst.

ISLAMABAD:

To assess the unfolding situation in the Middle East, a discussion was held on the Syrian conflict, Afghanistan and the political dynamics of South Asia at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), according to a press release on Thursday.

The roundtable discussion, “US perspective on Middle East and Afghanistan,” was chaired by CISS Executive Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi and Ambassador James Larocco, who is also director of the Near East South Asia (NESA) centre at the National Defence University Washington, shared his analysis.

He said that the turmoil in the Middle East would continue indefinitely and after Syria, Libya may take centre stage, as it is on the point of collapse.  “Later even Iraq may “boil over.” Thus new surprises could be in the offing.”



Larocco who has reviewed Obama’s policies in the Middle East said the president had not expected the Arab spring to come to Syria. The issue was triggered by a series of sporadic incidents of civil disobedience which turned into a full-scale armed insurrection, he stated.

“It was not planned earlier and the pressure of events resulted into a situation where President Obama had to take a position on the use of US forces in Syria. US still wants to resolve this issue peacefully.”

As eight states are already involved in the Syrian conflict, the issue can escalate into a full-blown armed conflict between states, he added.

Five million people are internally displaced in Syria and Syrian migrants entering Jordan are estimated to be around 5 million as well.

As the world eyes Afghanistan, Boggs, another analyst, said a lot would depend on the credibility of the presidential elections in 2014. The US may seek an agreement regarding the level of US forces in Afghanistan with the new government.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 20^th, 2013.