The many pitfalls of attacking Syria

It will be difficult for the majority of Muslims the world over to support possible military action in Syria.

Before the US makes a final decision on undertaking yet another military action, it must seriously consider the eventuality that its possible involvement in Syria may continue into 2014 — the period when the Afghanistan transition will be in full swing. Also, before exercising this extreme option, the US needs to consider the possibility of an Afghanistan-like nightmare emerging yet again. Initially, a range of military options were being considered but now it has come down to the US and France taking “limited and tailored” action against Syria. The US may again be rushing into a war without filling all the intelligence gaps and without getting a total grip on the one question that everyone wants it to answer: why the need for a military operation at this stage, even if it is ‘limited and tailored’? The Iraq and Afghan wars have already shown Americans that getting into any war is easy; it is getting out of it that causes all the headaches.

There are several stakeholders in Syria, who are interested in changing the dynamics of a civil war that has been going on for over two years. Seen in this context, shouldn’t the American president be aware of the possibility that his warning to the Syrian president that “Assad will incur game changing action if he used chemical weapons” could prompt any other force outside the government to use such weapons, only to induce a punitive American action against Assad’s regime? It is for this reason that the US must first present irrefutable evidence of the Syrian regime’s complicity in these chemical weapons attacks.

In any action that it undertakes, the US may destroy the Syrian Air Force, its command and control centres and degrade its military response ability to launch missiles and wage war. It may even enhance the Syrian opposition’s military ability with armed assistance but all this is not likely to end the civil war. It must be noted that the destruction of Syrian military assets and capability will be unacceptable to a vast majority of Syrians. If the political aim of the US intervention is to trigger the collapse of Bashar alAssad’s regime, then it is unfortunately, a short-sighted aim built on weak legal grounds. Critics may call for punishment of a regime allegedly involved in killing over 1,300 people using chemical weapons but at the core of this punishment is the hard fact that undermining Syria’s military capability is another way of addressing Israeli insecurities.

While opening this new front, the US should be wary of the chaos that will follow. A vacuum will open up, likely to be filled by the Syrian rebel force, foreign fighters belonging to Hezbollah, a motley collection of Islamist fighters and above all, al Qaeda that seems to creep up wherever Americans intervene militarily. Such a situation will raise questions not only on US foreign policy goals but also on its approach on how to fight terrorism. This is why before any military action is considered, the question must be asked: will such an operation shift the momentum of the ongoing civil war in Syria for the good of the Syrian people? It must also be noted that despite spending almost $50 billion on intelligence, the US couldn’t trace Osama bin Laden for a long time and also invaded Iraq on false intelligence. Can its intelligence be trusted this time around?

Another factor to consider is that this may turn out to be yet another case of reducing a Muslim country’s military power based on allegations that it has used chemical weapons, which is very similar to the previous instance of how another Muslim country’s military was destroyed for possessing weapons of mass destruction that were never found. It will be extremely difficult for the majority of Muslims the world over to support possible military action in Syria. The fallout of any military action will do little good to a world already engaged in finding military solutions to most problems that require a diplomatic solution.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 5^th, 2013.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.