Line of fire

Sabre-rattling aside, in a conventional war, the uncomfortable reality is that Pakistan would eventually and lose.

The Line of Control between India and Pakistan is going through one of its ‘hot’ periods. There are violations by both sides, but in the last week, a woman has been killed by Indian shelling and six others, including a child, injured in the Nakyal sector, along with military personnel, in a sharp uptick in cross-border firing. There is a marked difference in tone and content between the two sides in terms of how these latest incidents are responded to. The Pakistan government appears to have decided to stick with a line that might be described as ‘stolid pragmatism’ — accepting that incidents are going to take place but not allowing them to get in the way of developments in the bigger picture of bilateral relations. Dialogue remains the preferred option and if that dialogue leads to increased trade opportunities and a lowering of tensions, then so much the better.

By contrast, the shriller end of the Indian nationalist political spectrum is having a hissy-fit and throwing its toys around the playpen — to the edification of nobody and the general hindrance of whatever positive developments might be in train. There are more measured and rational voices on the Indian side but they tend to get drowned out. If both sides are to ‘move on’ in the diplomatic vernacular, they are going to have to leave some cherished pieces of luggage beside the road. The Mumbai attack, demands for the heads of Muslim extremists on a plate, years-old violations of holy places on both sides and decades of atrocities, all of which remain as eternal impediments, exhumed and displayed every time the winds of peace begin to waft in. Sabre-rattling aside, in a conventional war, the uncomfortable reality is that Pakistan would eventually and at terrible cost, lose. The Sharif government provides what may be an extended window of opportunity in which traditional positions may be modified, but it will require restraint and statesmanship on both sides if real gains are to be made. The peace dividend for both is immeasurable, the consequences of extended conflict, unthinkable.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 4^th, 2013.

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