Implications and alternatives

Analysts say Pakistan is unlikely to keep the border shut for an extended period.

ISLAMABAD: Increasing attacks on the logistical backbone of the Afghan war come amid mounting anger in Pakistan over repeated incursions by Nato helicopters from Afghanistan.

Angered by the cross-border strikes, one of two supply routes for the Nato troops have been blocked.  Here are some questions and answers on the logistical chain as it snakes through Pakistan, carrying everything from military equipment to fuel for the tens of thousands of troops in Afghanistan.

Where do the routes pass?

There are two routes through Pakistan into Afghanistan. The one that was closed off goes through the Khyber Pass to Torkham and on to Kabul. That is the easiest land route for supplies and military equipment into Afghanistan, by ship to Karachi, and then by truck into Afghanistan. The other passes through Balochistan to Chaman and on to Kandahar.

The US Defence Department says the US military sends 75 per cent of supplies through or over Pakistan, including 40 per cent of fuel. Sensitive gear such as ammunition, weapons and critical equipment is flown in, the Pentagon says.

Will the closure/attacks damage the Afghan war?

While analysts say the closure of the supply route is not expected to have a serious impact because Nato had all along anticipated disruptions and had stockpiled supplies, it could exacerbate political tensions. Pakistan has said it would consider "response options" if Nato forces continued to violate its sovereignty.

Pakistan, however, is unlikely to keep the border shut for an extended period, aware that it cannot afford to antagonise an ally which provides $2billion in military aid a year.

What’s the alternative?

Taliban attacks had already forced the US and other Western forces to look for alternatives through Central Asia and Russia into northern Afghanistan.

The Northern Distribution Network (NDN), as the US refers to it, was launched in 2009.  It involves Russia, Latvia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Also, the US operates a military air base in Kyrgyzstan which serves as an important support hub for Afghan operations as well as an aircraft refuelling point.

Published in The Express Tribune ,October 7^th, 2010.