A possible basis for settling the Kashmir dispute

An agreement between the countries would reduce the support the Jihadis groups receive and thus ensure peace.


Dr Ali Hashim August 16, 2013
The writer has recently retired from the World Bank. He has a PhD from Imperial College in London

The news from the Line of Control (LoC), in Kashmir, is not good. Five Indian soldiers were reportedly kidnapped and murdered by terrorists wearing Pakistan Army uniforms. The Pakistan Army denies any part in this. This action, like similar actions in the past, has most likely been carried out by jihadi groups, who would very much like to derail any process of rapprochement between India and Pakistan. Nevertheless, this has caused tempers to flare across the border — the Indian establishment has sounded off against Pakistan and its support for terrorists. On the Pakistani side, the reaction has been much more muted. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has expressed his concerns at the escalating tensions.

All this comes against the backdrop of positive developments over the last several months where the ground was being prepared for reopening the dialogue between the two countries.

It is really important that both countries keep their eye on the ball and do not get distracted by such incidents, once again. This is exactly what the jihadi groups — who are responsible for the violent incidents on the LoC — want.

Notwithstanding the troubles mentioned above, I think the current circumstances in Pakistan are most favourable to move forward on this matter. The new government has the necessary political space and mandate, and has shown the will to do so. Very soon after Nawaz Sharif took office, he dispatched a special envoy to India to sound out the government there.

The Pakistan Army chief also made a critical statement a few months ago, saying that the major threat to Pakistan is from the Taliban and associated terrorists, rather than India. In his speech at the Pakistan Military Academy, in Kakul, he again dwelt at length on this threat and how Pakistan has no option but to meet it head on, hardly mentioning India in this context.

More importantly, if we look at the matter of Kashmir closely, we see that the interests of both Pakistan and India are surprisingly similar — both India and Pakistan want to keep control over their parts of Kashmir and both have, hopefully, realised after three wars that they cannot get the other part.

Two major opinion surveys conducted on both sides of border in Kashmir, over the period 2007-2010, have shown that less than 10 per cent of the Muslim population of Indian-occupied-Kashmir would like to join Pakistan. Likewise, Pakistani Kashmiris do not want to join India.

Therefore, it seems time has moved on and the situation on the ground has changed, since 1947. A division along the LoC, i.e., a formalisation of the status quo, is in the best interest of both India and Pakistan.

Please note that agreement on these lines only formalises the defacto situation on the ground and does not require any changes which could result in a breaking point. It would, therefore, be the easiest to implement.

In view of the high payback possible from defusing this flashpoint between two nuclear armed countries, it is imperative that political leaders of both countries (with encouragement of the international community) spend the necessary political capital to come to an agreement. It may get them the Nobel Peace Prize if they do!

Published in The Express Tribune, August 17th, 2013.

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COMMENTS (65)

Karan | 10 years ago | Reply

In my opinion, India Pakistan brotherly relations are not only vital to both the countries but also to achieve a respectable position on global platform. We should address the Kashmir issue bilaterally through a brotherly approach. Our approach should be on the basis of the shared history, culture, language and communities. Independence or secession would be counter-productive. The concerned party must be made to understand that secession would not be feasible. Aspirations for independance are not in sync with the security structure of both our countries. So we need to find a solution within the available scope. Formalising the LOC with some give an take based on demographics, developing a soft border with free movement of people and goods and formalities involved in doing do can be considered as a workable option. Economic development, industry, unemployment should be the focus areas. The military presence then can be curtailed to a minimum.

The emotional, cultural, economic benefits to all the parties involved would tremendous and would also boost the self-confidence and moral of all the people.

Peter Pan | 10 years ago | Reply

Having read the comments stream here and in the published,OPed version of the article. I have the following observations: (a) A significant number of people consider the proposal made by the author to make the LOC the international border, realistic. (b) Some people raise the question of the will of the Kashmiris. Two points here, the author does mention that the Indian Muslim Kashmiris want independence from India, The Pakistani Kashmiris have shown no desire to become independent from Pakistan. They may go along with independence if an independent Kashmir is created. However the article argues that the interests and voice of the Pakistani Kashmiris, were it to be formed ( highly unlikely), would be less than what they have in Pakistan. So they may need to think about this. (c) Given that the Indian Muslim Kashmiris do not want to join Pakistan, takes Pakistan out of the equation from a purely national interest point of view and makes this a matter between India and Indian Kashmiris. In this situation Pakistan can sympathize with the Muslim Kashmiris but can do very little other than this. This is identical to the case of the Indian Muslims. Why should Pakistan's attitude in the case of the indian Kashmiris be any different from that of its atttitude towards the other Indian muslims? (d) The articile makes the powerful point that in view of the sentiments of Indian Muslim Kashmiris towards Pakistan it is NOT in the interest of Pakistan to press for an independent Kashmir. Note the author is not saying that this is the best deal that Pakistan can get, he is saying that this course of action namely division along the LOC IS in the best interest of Pakistan. So the proposal is not making any concessions to India. (e) To the group of people who talk about other altruistic sentiments etc. I would say that the sole determinant in the calculus of international politics is national interest. Foreign policies are made on the basis of real politik.

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