Egyptian Army soldiers patrol the streets outside Cairo University. PHOTO: AFP/FILE
After the events in Egypt this past week, some in Washington are debating whether to call a coup a coup. The better question is "Was the upheaval that toppled Hosni Mubarak in 2011 really a revolution?"
Think of what Egypt was before and after the fall of Mubarak, and what it is now.
Before the Arab Spring the military was Egypt's most critical political body, a stabilising force in a country of weak politicians and weaker governance. That never changed. In fact, it hasn't changed much in the past 60 years.
The same military has deposed Mohamed Mursi, and whether it did so because the people demanded it or because the military wanted it is beside the point.
Mursi is gone, the constitution offers no effective oversight of the military, and the fate of the country still rests with a few select generals.
As we ponder Egypt's foreseeable future, there are no attractive options.
Egypt's least worst option?
Pakistan, if it should be so lucky.
Things in Egypt are now so bad that resembling Pakistan is as good as it can realistically get any time soon. The worst possibility is outright state failure.
The outcome is in the military's hands.
Egypt's situation already bears similarities to Pakistan's, where the military is central, broadly popular, and the country's primary economic force.
In both countries, the military understands that actually running the country, or at least being seen as running the country, is the worst way to consolidate power while avoiding public fury when things go wrong.
Today, the main difference with Pakistan's military is that Egypt's is now seen as responsible for the day-to-day functioning of governance.
The generals will once again go for the Goldilocks approach to forming a civilian government, one that is not too strong but not too weak.
It has to be resolute enough to earn a reputation for competence, and this is where Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood fell short, but docile enough to not sideline the military or curb its privileges.
Most importantly, the new government needs to seem sufficiently independent to take flak and "own" the blame for any economic woes. The last thing the military wants is for the next wave of protestors to aim their anger at the army.
Can the military pull this off?
Can it empower a government that earns enough public confidence to restore stability to the country and allows the military to distance itself from economic management and domestic politics?
There are plenty of looming obstacles.
The military's killing of more than 50 pro-Mursi protestors underscores the growing rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and armed forces. It's not hard to imagine a scenario in which the military, claiming the Muslim Brotherhood is evolving into an insurgency, chooses to again make the party illegal, as it was under Mubarak.
The military is in a race against the clock.
The interim transitional government has laid out a timetable for new elections that is undeniably too ambitious. The six month timeline leaves only four months for redrafting the constitution, a process that is destined to take much longer. The chance of protracted civil conflict is very real and growing.
But don't rule out the military's success. In the wake of the coup, two supportive Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, sent a clear message with their checkbooks. Aid to the tune of $8 billion demonstrated that the military is the perceived best bet to provide stability in a country that is too big to fail.
Of course, the Pakistan model is a very low bar to set for governance.
Pakistan has been racked with internal security issues, and a democratically-elected government successfully finished its entire term for only the first time this year.
Egypt has another critical difference from Pakistan, one that comes with great risks and rewards. There is an empowered, vocal, active civil society. The "rebel" signature of the protests is what made Mursi's ouster possible. A similar civil activism is what drove out Mubarak too.
It is this active civil society that complicates the military's path from here to a Pakistan model of governance. But while Egypt is a far way off from having the kind of democratic elections that we celebrate in emerging markets like Brazil and Turkey, it possesses a similar type of civil society, one that could, in the future, make such a system possible.
In the meantime, it is best to hope the military has firm dominion over the country and can avoid violent crisis in its bid to establish a viable government.
Author Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm.
Bremmer created Wall Street's first global political risk index, and has authored several books, including the national bestseller, "The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?", which details the new global phenomenon of state capitalism and its geopolitical implications.
He has a PhD in political science from Stanford University (1994).
__________________________________________________________
[poll id="1171"]
COMMENTS (65)
Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
For more information, please see our Comments FAQ
1713425884-0/Tribune-Collage-Feature-Images-(10)1713425884-0-270x192.webp)
Any writer who tries to portray Pakistan's civil society as weaker than Egypt's is woefully incompetent - sadly, at the risk of adding a regional prejudice, this seems to be a deficiency which targets a lot of European 'journalists'.
Pakistanis have campaigned vociferously across and on behalf of the country since Partition; indeed, it was the same active civil society which rose up against Hindu domination and broke away from state oppression to establish a homeland in the first place. Even though Pakistan has a nasty habit of recycling the same leaders repeatedly, the simple truth is that during the 30-year reign of Mubarak in Egypt, Pakistan has been through ten different presidents - that alone is a triumph for democratic development.
Egyptians have a lot to be optimistic about - they have seen the kinds of popular sentiment in the past two years which have been suppressed for decades - but to follow the logic of articles as inane and wayward as this one would be as foolish as Hindustanis, many of whom have managed to convince themselves that they live in a civilised, developed society.
Hasan
I'm a frequent visitor to Egypt and despite the years of Mubaraks rule the Egyptians still have a cultural identity and solidarity. Take away the polarising influence of the Islamists and Egypt will have the unity that Pakistan can only dream of. It may take decades for them to stabilise after the recent political upheaval but providing the extremists are kept at bay they will leave Pakistan far behind.
@uet: Notwithstanding the differences you have cited -- rightly or wrongly -- between Egypt and Pakistan, the title of this story implies that Pakistan is rated as the country with the worst record in terms of anarchy, violence, religious fanaticism, persecution, forcible conversion and killings of minorities, lawlessness, bankrupt economy, a rapidly eroding polity, deceit and denial. Pakistan sets the benchmark for everything terrible. Indeed, we hear even people from less developed countries saying that "We don't want to become another Pakistan!" And that's how the Egyptians also see it.
@A Pakistani:
100% agreed.
Egyptians have a long road ahead of them; unfortunately, the recent overthrow of the Morsi regime has undone a lot of the sacrifices of the blood and tears that the people have shed over the past two years. I personally don't care for religion-based governance, but if that was what the people voted for, it should be respected.
The bitter truth for Hindustanis is that terms of poverty, disease, caste backwardness and sexual violence, both Egypt and Pakistan (along with most of the world) have left them languishing in the gutter. When some idiot posts a message talking about Pakistan's history being 66 years old, without looking at a map of the 5,000-year-old Indus Valley Civilisation which sits DIRECTLY over modern-day Pakistan, it is painfully clear that a lot of the commentators here are simply following the same Hindustani habit of posting misguided messages under western names. Perhaps they should ask themselves why they are so desperate to compare themselves with China, even though most of their socio-economic indicators put them on a par with Sub-Saharan Africa...
Hasan
Article about Egypt and Pakistan taken over by Pakistan bashing Indians. Indians should talk for themselves and leave Egypt out of this
@Goa: Seems to be a suitable job for you, finally!!
@Goa: Just look around, you will find more than 1 billion comedians in your country!
Also,
Egyptians get fooled very easily.. Check this out.. http: //finance.yahoo. com/news/theres-growing-evidence-vast-conspiracy-234418891.html
Hate to break it to you egyptians.. but you have just started to become Pakistan in all ways.. I mean we fought dictatorship over 3 times in 50 years.. YOU have just started to do that.. and in the recent case, still have'nt learned.. God Bless Pakistan.. And God bless Egypt..
Pakistan is in asia and Egypt in Africa difference is clear...
@Pepsi You think I'm saying all of this because its my own opinion. No my friend, these are facts. 17 million people are homeless in Mumbai alone.Thats almost half the population. Last time I checked 1/3 of Karachi wasn't homeless. Oh, and you have the audacity to call Pakistan "a migraine". You and I both know India is a pain for ALL its neighbors. Give me one example of a neighbor that's happy with you. just ONE.
"is-becoming-pakistan-the-best-egypt-can-hope-for" This may/shall be happened in Pakistan if provided that the current political leadership didn't leave the brutalities and cruelties in the form of increasing expensiveness on large scale rapidly and applying the more heavy taxes,on the basic requirements of life,on the already heavily taxed poor and common nation and didn't leave bad habit of teasing the ex-army generals and didn't leave the the worst ever habit of trying to make army and intelligence agencies its subservient under the umbrella of democracy..........
@Falcon:
"The difference between Egypt and Pakistan is not of capabilities or political & socio-economic stage of development, the key difference is their attitudes. Egyptian people are nationalist and patriotic. They believe in their country just like Indians."
You missed one very important similarity between Egyptians and Indians. Both are proud inheritors of 5000 year old continuous civilization and culture. Pakistan's history dates back only 65 years and Pakistanis do not have an ancient civilizational heritage. Having declared that they are a different people and nation pre-partition, they think they are Arabs, Persians, Turks, Central Asian, Afghans etc., none of whom accept Pakistanis as one of their own. In other words, Pakistanis don't have any ancient and civilizational identity.
Pakistan is better than Egypt in many ways. Pakistanis never allowed a dictator to rule them for thirty years. Pakistan has a constitutional govt, whereas Egypt doesn't have a constitution. Pakistani media is way more independent and vibrant than Egypt. Pakistani Military cannot think about staging a coup now whereas Egyptian military just did. Pakistan for the first time had a transition of power from one democratically elected govt to another peacefully whereas Egypt never had a democratic govt that completed its tenure. In Pakistan there is an agreement amongst all stake holders for the continuation of democratic process. Therefore judiciary, politicians and the civil society of Pakistan will never support a military adventure, whereas its not the case with Egypt as their judiciary, civil society and media have supported military usurpers.
Pakistan manufactures its own fighter jets tanks and submarines whereas Egypt does not. Pakistan has been and still is in a constant state of war since 1947 whereas Egypt fought and lost a few wars but has never been in a constant state of war like Pakistan.
Egyptian economy was propped up by tourism and Foreign aid. Whereas Pakistan's economy is suffering because of constant covert and sporadic overt wars with other regional and global players. Now that tourism industry in Egypt has collapsed, Egypt does not have much else to rely on except aid from Arab countries or the US. However in Pakistan there is enough economic and industrial base which will thrive once there is peace in Afghanistan.
More to come latter.
@A Pakistani: No wonder that your country failed in every angle.Its become migrain to world community. If any subject comes then you people put delhi rape blah blah blah because nothing else to say.In your country once raped the victim cannot open there mouth and will be picturise like a criminal and those culprits will escape easily.What a pathetic country !
@John:
Mr. biased,no one is interested in your baseless opinions,its better to go to your own websites than wasting your time in some others business.
@Javed: We need a comedian for our film industry !
The world is changing dramatically. Everyone, majority of people regardless of country of origin and where they live want peace. There will always be conflict, chaos wherever mankind exists but people now just have to be more educated and wise in their decision making, accept difference, live and learn from past history if you are willing to read about it and always live within your limits and means. And remember there are consequences for every action good or bad.
@Pepsi India is a clearly worse country than Pakistan in every single way. Poverty, education, disease, Class difference, Gender equality, crime, rebel movements etc.. Oops and lets not forget the Delhi Rapes. Before you point fingers at our county look at yourself in the mirror too.
Can Indians please go to their own news websites ?
The picture speaks for itself. You would never see an on duty Pakistani soldier texting.
@indi: Yes Pakistan is certainly not ahead of India in the number of Slums...
@The Paki!: That so-called "Patriotic Cairo" just an Indian with a fake identity! lol, you really thought that an Egyptian would post comments like that? Whole Islamic world is proud of Pakistan as its seen as a "Fortress of Islam"!
Of course it is a sad state of affairs that in both these countries the armed forces have a say in running the nation. But there is a crucial difference. The Egyptian military is a bulwark against fundamentalism and backwardness. The Pakistani military promotes fundamentalism and backwardness. The Egyptians(roughly 50%) are well tuned into what the fundamentals of a democracy are, which includes protecting women and the minorities and respecting their rights. Not using brute majority to crush or eliminate them as is the case with Pakistan. If at all there is any similarity between Pakistan and Egypt, it is that the supporters of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt will feel at home in Pakistan, because the vast majority of Pakistanis are cut from the same cloth.
@ Pepsi
If you don't know these basic facts then there is no point of setting an argument with you. Just google the basis of South Korea's economic model and also google Pakistan's economic models of the said eras and I hope you won't get disappointed.
There is something which we call RESEARCH. One should do it before typing hastily on the keyboard.
Egyptian are more patroitic than pakistanis.They are welcomed at any other international airports with out much trouble than pakistani counter parts.
Egypt Pharoh cant win any war against any country they are good to eat twenty khubass at a time... war history is clear 48, 67, 73 so on....
@SM: Pakistan also need US aid to feed its own people.Afghanistan will also receive food supply from other neighbouring countries like India
There is one very important difference between Pakistan and Egypt. The world sees the Egyptian people with respect because they seem to never stop fighting against injustice and bad rulers. The people atleast have picked up the basic tenants of democracy pretty fast.
I have interacted with a lot of Egyptians. I know they will come out of this ordeal. The difference between Egypt and Pakistan is not of capabilities or political & socio-economic stage of development, the key difference is their attitudes. Egyptian people are nationalist and patriotic. They believe in their country just like Indians. Most educated Pakistanis on the other hand (as obvious from a lot of comments above) take pride in bad-mouthing their country (they did so even when things were not that bad decades ago) and this will the primary determinant of the trajectory of two countries for decades to come.
@Khan: We are not here to talk and suits as you like.Every one have the right to say there opinion.Otherwise we do not need to be here.How you conclude that we all are indians!
@Patriotic Cairo: Egypt needs US aid to feed its own people even basic bread; if Pakistan's leaders were to stop the massive outflow of agricultural goods that are being sold for dollars in Afghanistan, Pakistan could more than successfully feed its every citizen with food that is not only superior quality but way low priced also. In Pakistan the problem is only the corrupt society as opposed to any other country.
I personally know Egyptians,they don’t have such strong feelings about Pakistan. I don’t even think they have any interest in Pakistani newspapers.So its damn sure commentators like John's or Patriotic Cairo or even with name of some Patriotic Pakistani are Indians. This is my request to Editor,Please screen such comments and avoid to publish such pathetic comments which will degrade the quality of article and the news paper as well.
I think pakistan added also taliban for there power project military strength in global fire power.If you take out nuclear weapon, then it is equivalent military power like bangladesh or syria or little bit more.
@The Paki!: of course india has more poor than pakistan thanks to our huge population but then so is the middle and upper middle class much larger and yeah pakistan was never ahead of india in any field...maybe at par in some.....but not ahead ....anyway compare with egypt now :>
@Jay Tee: Self praising.No body bothered any thing about pakistan what they doing other than suicide bombings etc, but international media attention much towards egypt.
@John:
"Israel have only two major allies that is US and India"
India is not an Israeli ally as far as my understanding goes.
India has some agreement for jointly developing and buying weapon-systems from Israel.
That's all.
It is inherently a matter of opinion as to what causes are legitimate, and which illegitimate. If you look at the population census of today's Israel in 1900, it is only 4% Jewish. Furthermore, Israel's ethnic cleansing of Muslim (Deir Yassin) and Christian (Iqrit) Arabs in 1948 to establish hegemony over 78% of the land naturally is not fair. While it is accurate that the Arabs launched the attack on Israel in 1948, Indians of all people should understand why you must resist foreign invaders and colonizers, especially if they wish to divide the land on a dubious, religion based 2000 year old claim.
Furthermore your second example is somewhat superfluous. The military history of Egypt and Pakistan is quite different. The Suez War of 1956 which was waged on Egypt by foreign colonial powers has no comparison in Pak history. Also, Egypt did substantially well in 1973, despite faltering in the last days due to the Israeli counter offensive bolstered by American re armament efforts.
@The Paki!: Pakistan will never come back on track as it almost disinegerated from the core. Pakistan never be a role model neither in history, as your economy is too small to be a role model for others in 70's or 80's or even 90's.Don't put your theory of imagination.
Pakistan has Taliban....which Egypt does not. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ So does that make Egypt superior or Pakistan?
Israel have only two major allies that is US and India
@ John While one cannot deny that Egypt is great nation however one must not underestimate Pakistans capability. Maybe you are speaking out of your own ignorance as far as Pakistan is concerned. If you speak of talent you cannot discount Pakistanis who are amongst of the best doctors and engineers even in the western world. Pakistan has a hard working work force and the only thing which has stopped is from real progress is stability. While Mubarak was a dictator Egypt was stable during his time. We must not compare ourselves with our Muslim brothers but if you come to work with a Pakistani or if you have a professional interaction expect him to astonish you with his knowledge and expertise like I have done just now to your inferior knowledge.
Another 2 major similarities between Egypt and Pakistan, which might seem irrelevant but if you dig deeper find them to be very relevant and in many ways a big factor driving both the countries.
They are :
1) Egypt covertly supports the illegitimate cause of Palestine. Pakistan covertly supports the illegitimate cause of Kashmir.
2) Egypt lost a big part of its territory to Israel in the 6 day war which the Israel generously gave it back to earn the good-will of Egyptians, only to be backstabbed again and again. Pakistan lost big part of its territory (upto Lahore) to India and lost 90000 POW to India. India generously gave both back to Pakistan only to be backstabbed by Pak again and again.
@ Jahangir
I already agreed in my previous comment that economically Egypt is much better now. What I am concerned is with the fact that nobody realizes the resilience of Pakistanis against all odds. For example, you may notice that it has been just 15-20 years since India has started to emerge on the world map, and now you can notice the change in the tones; regardless of the fact that still they are far more poorer than Pakistan. While on the other hand Pakistan was a role model for all Asian countries for its economic growth and development since its inception to mid 1970's. After that our down fall started. But I remember that still we were very much ahead of India in each and every sector until late 1990s.
The real problem started after 9/11 in which Pakistan had nothing to do with but was involved by US in Afghan War. This is the point where we actually started to fall. But is this a reference point for us? Such kind of things happen to every nation. Some get disintegrate; from smaller countries like Yugoslavia to might giants like USSR. And some manage to come out of these kinds of troubles like Sri-Lanka.
What hurts me most as a Pakistani is that no one appreciates our resilience against all odds. It took just 10 years to USSR to go away in bits and pieces and a much smaller Pakistan is still resisting for the past 12 years. I hope when this Afghan war comes to a final end, Pakistan will once again be on track, Insha Allah!
@Pakistani: We Blame India for every thing' our own deeds are quite dark as a matter of fact'
@Pakistani: Still there is no comparison'
All the commentators like John's and Patriotic Cairo's are indians or egyptians with indian roots. I know enough egyptians to know they don't harbor such strong feelings about Pakistan. I don't even think they have any interest in Pakistani newspapers.
I don't feel any hostility towards India because one of my parent migrated from there, but indians here reaffirms my stereotypes towards that country.
Joke in the 21st century that Pakistan is a role model of Egypt..ofcourse a model learned for egypt not become like pakistan
@The Paki!: Check mate between pakistan and egypt
http://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/PK/EG.
You can find egypt more developed than pakistan.Moreover they produce more Engineers,Doctors,Scientists than pakistan.Every international media more focused on Egypt than Pakistan and so the importance of Egypt to world stage.
There are striking similarities between the two nations but i think here we should not belittle any nation. Commentators here should come up with stats of economy and military etc. to make their points across.
@Patriotic Cairo: Egypt is a million time better place than Pakistan right now though I have a affinity towards Pakistan because of ancestory. Please, try to avoid these coups and military generals, a piece of advice from an Indian friend. Cheerio
Egypt can win any battle against any country other than US,Russia,India,China or may be Israel.They are highly trained and motivated armed forces.
Please don't insult Egypt.Even if Egypt goes this way, it will take it 100 years to reach the level of Pakistan.
@ Patriotic Cairo
Am i correct to understand that you are suggesting a hypothesis that if a war breaks out between Pakistan and Egypt, you guys would easily win?
What on the earth made you say that? What kind of enmity Pakistan has shown to Egypt that you are even thinking of this?
@Sajjid: I think you are a pakistani that's why you feel like that.They will overcome there political problem and don't forget that they have a high potential to become a global power
@ John
I don't understand what made you say that Pakistan is inferior to Egypt in case of military ability, talented youth, science and technology and space capabilities. One can only agree to this point that yes Egypt's economy is much more developed; otherwise I don't think your other points are rationalized. However I would like to correct myself if you can prove your other points by facts, figures and statistics.
ET Mods@ didn't like my previous comments? They were written thoughtfully in understandable English with no adverse language but may have slightly differed with point of view stated by the author in the article.
@John, I have visited Egypt and its worse than Pakistan in every way.
You can't compare us to pakistan.We are most leading nation in middle east.Of course we have political problem but that does not mean that we are a failed state like pakistan.Pakistan could not even able to tackle the drones.Consider,If a war broke out, we can easily win against them
Pakistan is inferior to egypt in case of military,economy,talented youths,science and technology,space capabilties you name it.Only pakistan have advantage is of nuclear weapon.But egypt army is much more powerful than pakistan
Egypt is more developed society than pakistan.Pakistan is ahead than egypt only in the case of nuclear weapons and rest of case they are much much ahead of pakistan.
Pakistan has and always will resist tinpot dictators. True that they have been around manipulating things and even ruled for half of Pakistan's life but this role has always been criticised and quit opernly too. Now look at Egypt its last president ruled it for 30 years. In fact there is no comparison at all, Mr. Bremmer should open his eyes.
Egypt and pakistan are very different societies. Egypt is homogeneous while Pakistan is diverse by ethnicity, religious sects, languages, cultures. And practically every ethnicity has its own political party, making it difficult for a movement like Egypt to emerge unless different political parties unite. Moreover there is wide consensus across diverse institution like Media, Judiciary, politicians for continuation of democratic process except few farting mouths like Sheikh Rasheed.