Michael Kugelman is the South Asia associate at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington, DC.
He tweets @MichaelKugelman
Let’s start with the farce. A Taliban office opened in Qatar to launch negotiations to end the war. The Taliban inaugurated the office with a flashy press conference and proceeded to cast itself as Afghanistan’s true government.
Kabul was furious and refused to send negotiators. Washington asked Doha to demand that the Taliban act more diplomatically. The Taliban refused. Talks were suspended — until the Americans claimed they were still on. But then, they were suspended again, indefinitely, even after the Taliban discarded its offending flags and banners. Yet, even with the Taliban now apparently uncommitted to talks, and with Kabul’s intentions unclear, Washington continues to speak about restarting negotiations.
If there’s any hope of salvaging the talks, Kabul must fully commit to participating. Unfortunately, prospects are grim. The government with arguably the most compelling interest in securing Kabul’s buy-in, Washington, is rapidly losing credibility with the Afghans. And the government with the most credibility with both Kabul and the Afghan political opposition, New Delhi, is exceedingly hesitant to endorse talks with the Taliban.
So, this leaves Pakistan. Can the country that, reportedly, helped bring the Taliban to Doha get Kabul to fully commit as well? And can it reduce intra-Afghan hostility to talks by engaging the Northern Alliance and other opposition groups? Does it even want to do so? Given the sorry state of Af-Pak relations, I doubt it.
What can we expect from any talks? Not much. Both the US and the Taliban are making unrealistic demands (the Taliban won’t accept Afghanistan’s constitution any time soon, and there’s no way every single foreign troop will immediately leave Afghanistan). There could be an agreement on prisoner swaps (involving captive US soldier Bowe Bergdahl and Taliban prisoners at Guantanamo). But not necessarily.
At any rate, the Taliban have an edge. If they start talks with Washington, the US will be on the defensive which, for the Americans, violates a cardinal rule of negotiations 101: one should only negotiate when in a position of strength.
The Americans don’t hold any semblance of an upper hand. Rather, they’re desperate. They know they can’t win on the battlefield and that their modest stabilisation achievements are in jeopardy now that security responsibilities have been fully transferred to the Afghans. An agreement is their only hope.
And yet, such an accord will remain elusive, particularly if Kabul is not on board. Some reports say Hamid Karzai would prefer to defer talks until after next year’s election.
This brings us to the tragedy element of the war.
Little has been heard of the views of ordinary Afghans — those most affected by negotiations with the Taliban. It’s safe to say many are infuriated with, and terrified by, the notion of talks with the group. It is them, after all, who suffered the horrors of the Taliban rule and who could face fresh horrors if talks empower the Taliban.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 29th, 2013.
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And the government with the most credibility with both Kabul and the Afghan political opposition, New Delhi
Need one say anymore?
"----- It is them, after all, who suffered the horrors of the Taliban rule and who could face fresh horrors if talks empower the Taliban.---"
It is THEM ? >>> correction " It is they,after all, who suffered the horrors of Taliban rule---"
Another way of looking at this mess is to see it as a designed creation and not something that has come about by default. So the Doha initiative and other such moves would be attempts to place the next stage into place, after all its a long game that has to be played out..............and then I may be dead wrong.
The only nation to rejoice at American loss in Afghanistan were Pakistanis, but little do they realize once the Americans leave, they will take with them support to Pakistan(which was significant in every sphere of life), their tolerance with Pakistan, allowing rabid Islamists to take over a huge territory right next to Pakistan, which is dealing with its own Islamist problems.
The writing is on the WALL !!!!
@ Author"Lets Call a spade a spade ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The talks are an attempt by Pakistan to maginalise Karzai. And you expect him to collaborate in that?
"Little has been heard of the views of ordinary Afghans — those most affected by negotiations with the Taliban. It’s safe to say many are infuriated with, and terrified by, the notion of talks with the group. It is them, after all, who suffered the horrors of the Taliban rule and who could face fresh horrors if talks empower the Taliban."
It is for this reason that "the government with the most credibility with both Kabul and the Afghan political opposition, New Delhi, is exceedingly hesitant to endorse talks with the Taliban."