The demographic nutcracker

A lopsided demographical divide in this blessed land has led to a sharp schism between the haves and have-nots.

One had a somewhat bizarre encounter the other day, while waiting for a parking space at one of Islamabad’s posh markets. A nondescript middle-aged individual knocked on the glass, demanding attention. To cut a long story short, the person in question solicited monetary assistance to support his family consisting of two wives and 10 children. According to his narrative, by the time his first wife had given him six children “she had lost her youth”, so he opted to marry a young woman with whom he had had four children and counting. This encounter set one contemplating. Whichever way one looked at it, one was left with more questions than answers. What shook one was the fact that the person in question represented the norm rather than the exception. Our population planning campaigns of yore had left us with what, for want of a more appropriate description, may be called a “lopsided demographical divide”.

Before one delves into the why and wherefore, it may, perhaps, be appropriate to take an over-the-shoulder glance at the history of, what may be called, the population planning conundrum. Ever since the new economic implosion, in this hapless world of ours, the economists have not tired of drawing a link between development and population. The theory they have been expounding, ever since is that in order to ensure economic progress, it is imperative to check the growth of population; in simple language, the linear proposition that when there are fewer mouths to feed, there would be more to go around.

As a theory, this sold well in the developed world, since people there were somewhat terrified of one day being overrun by the teeming billions of the starving have-nots of the regions of the world that are euphemistically referred to as the Developing World. Not surprisingly, the idea was aggressively propagated in the poorer regions of the world. The argument was instantly lapped up by the developing world’s economists, most of them having been weaned on Western economic theories as it is.

In order to produce greater impact, the phrase “population explosion” was coined to devastating effect. To make an already confused situation worse, interested demographers stepped in to append their own two pennies’ worth. What with the demographers and economic planners pooling their efforts (with the common man on the receiving end as always), the whole issue could not but reach a stage of utter befuddlement.

A credulous world was informed that controlling the growth of population was the sine qua non of economic progress. In simple terms, it became axiomatic that any developing nation that desired to move up the economic ladder was obliged to take stringent measures to “control” the growth of its population — by fair means or foul.

This led, in due course, to the rich industrialised countries — which had small populations but vast resources — to pour in vast sums of money in “aid” (read: tied loans) to the Third World, for what were touted as essential “population control projects”. The developing world’s planners, goaded on by the “aid” dollars, put their hearts and souls into projects connected with “population control”. It is just that they had no idea where these projects were headed, nor did they care!

In the process, one unanticipated snag materialised. The family planning programmes being pushed through managed to rouse interest in only one minor segment of the populace. The educated — and comparatively more prosperous — groups of the populace were easily attracted. The less endowed — by far the overwhelming majority — never took it seriously, basically because it tended to go against their  “culture”.

The result is before us for all to see: a grotesque lopsided demographical divide in this blessed land that has led to a sharp schism between the haves and have-nots. The former garner the resources to improve the quality of life of their offspring; the latter continue to slide deeper and deeper into the bottomless abyss.

The tragedy is that the much-vaunted planners have done little to correct the imbalance. The populace is in the grip of a demographic nutcracker. In this state of affairs, the ideal of a welfare state will remain as elusive as ever.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 18^th, 2013.

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