The writer is a PhD in conflict studies and an independent security analyst. He has also taught at the University of Central Lancashire, UK
The Lal Masjid episode was a militant trial run for the rest of the country, which indicated to these militant groups that they can impose their version of Sharia, by force, in society. Since then, their force has been countered effectively by the army, but now the lack of social justice has to be countered by the civilian government. It is inarguable that there are undercurrents of resentment against social injustice. In Pakistan, it is difficult to see how militancy can be curbed in the absence of distributive social justice. One alternative for a cross border solution to the problem is to recognise Pashtuns as the majority population in Afghanistan and recognise the Taliban as a party that can ensure peace in the region. Yet, for this to be acceptable to other Afghan parties, the Taliban must morph to become a purely Afghan Pashtun movement rather than a nationalist Pashtun-based tribal insurgency with roots in Pakistan or a radical Islamist movement with al Qaeda linkages. Any semblance of pan-Islamist nationalism on the part of the Taliban, as well as contacts with al Qaeda, would not establish their credentials as a Pashtun nationalist movement. However, this is a catch-22 situation; the Taliban’s fundamental condition for negotiations has persistently been the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan, which may not happen as long as religious linkages are demonstrated in the region. The Americans have indicated that they would leave a footprint in the region even after withdrawal, which may again become a bone of contention.
It is important to understand that there is still a difference between al Qaeda and the Taliban, although they tend to come closer together under the duress of aggression in meeting the common enemy: the US. Even though it is undeniable that there is a religious element present, the Taliban were and still are a nationalist movement like Hamas and Hezbollah but unlike al Qaeda. Of course, they have the capability (which they have demonstrated) to develop more extensive transnational terror links, but that will depend on the trajectory of circumstances. Breaking existing bonds is certainly problematic.
Another strategic necessity is to address the grievances of Fata, where only three per cent of women receive education and there is one doctor for every 8,000 people. Operations are a viable option as initial counter-insurgency efforts, but unless they are supplemented by huge socioeconomic investments in rehabilitating the area, peace will not return, as Afghanistan has demonstrated. Fata also needs the healing touch of democracy and just laws; the draconian Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) needs to leave or at least be drastically modified. Only a democratically-elected government, reflecting the consensus of the nation, can achieve those ends and this should be a priority of the new government.
The time is also ripe for a counter-insurgency strategy that incorporates local lashkars as local militias, which can be the first line of defence in a village. The issue of aid and development needs to be resolved as well. Fata’s laws and infrastructure need to be normalised by the infusion of a slow but comprehensive aid package dealing with development issues such as education and jobs. This requires transparency and a genuine commitment to this area. With the Pakistani economy in a perilous state, Pakistan needs a bailout package but this should come with strings so that it caters only to Fata and is not squandered. Pakistan is a resilient state and will overcome its problems eventually, but the road ahead needs to be paved with the soundest of policies, failing which, one would expect to see the problems of militancy continuing in the country.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 19th, 2013.
COMMENTS (14)
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@Rex Minor:
Sorry if the history does not match your revisionist belief, but 'students returning to madrassas' did not happen. Mullah Omar and his madrassa students took up arms from Kandahar, to take down unjust warlords. They retained power once in Kabul and were a pre-dominant Pashtun Deoband movement. There was relative stability, though some violence and oppression, facing some small resistance from the Northern Alliance.
Pashtunwali and Ummah are totally different meanings. Pashtunwali is pre-Islamic tribal code/way of life to Pashtuns. Ummah refers to community, not rules. You may have confused 'hospitality to guests' in Pashtunwali with 'unity' in Ummah or thinking of Sharia, which is also different despite what Pashtunwali proponents like to imagine. George W is an idiot and a war criminal. However, the Taliban leaders stupidly favoured criminal foreign terrorist OBL over the Afghan people on backward principles. It was not an unreasonable demand by the US to have them hand him over after the 2001 attacks. Lot of lives could have been spared.
Taliban from Karzai's Popalzai tribe are low compared to M.Omar's Hotak tribe, who make a huge bloc. Aggression by unreasonable extremists makes peace talks hard. Saudi OBL found in Abbottabad and Taliban Quetta Shura in Balochistan, qualify as safe havens to foreign extremist militants. Even the Haqqanis are not native to Kurram, strangling the native Turi tribe, but the Pak state seems uninterested in removing them, bringing to question our obligations and intentions. The Durrand line issue for the Pak state is a long way off. Hope there's peace, but like the Iraq withdrawal, doubt Taliban/terrorist attacks will cease.
@bigsaf: Let us not reinvent the pathology of the Taliban bogey, the student movement whose mission was to put an end to civil war. This was completed and the students returned to their madrassas. Pakhtunwali which is Ummah in arabic is the integral part of the Pashtun Afghan culture; this was challenged by George W unnecessarily and this brought the foreign forces in Afghanistan with the mission to set up the American democracy and with that the regime change. Too much Pashtun blood has been shed and too many lives lost including those of women, childen and old in a war which cannot be won..
Mr Karzai is a Pashtun and his tribe is part of the Taliban network.The Pashtuns today control almost the entire Afghan territory and have spread their hold throughout Pakistan as well. Now is the time for peace and reconciliation among the Pashtuns tribes and between the Pashtuns and the non Pashtuns. A dialogue is the pre-requisite and the consenses of the majority should be the basis for the compromise. There are no safe havens per say in Pakistan territory fo foreigners, the Pashtun tribes do not recognise the line drawn by Durand in the air corridor between the tribes. Peace will render the border lines meaningless as has been achieved within the European Union.
Rex Minor
@Rex Minor:
The Taliban weren't recently born as a resistance. They were in govt power until they got knocked off because they refused to give up their chief guest Osama Bin Laden to the US. They will force a role even after the US leaves, and will not end simply as a resistance to foreign occupation and other religious/ethnic/tribes. That is why I use the word 'revenge'. The Taliban govt and ideology had existed even before the US invasion, and was born as a resistance to the then powerful civil warring Afghan war lords in the 90's, finally coming into power. Even though they were predominated by Mullah Omar's own Pashtun tribe, their main stick was religious authority, at least how they theologically interpreted it.
I already explained earlier that it was not simply nationalist and included religious, cultural and tribal ideology. However, there are indeed elements of local nationalism (due to being invaded or aggrieved by the local govt or foreign forces, such as losing opium crops or a loved one in a raid) among many of the Pashtun Taliban foot soldiers which keeps their missions restricted to Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan regionally, despite international ideological religious extremist ties. Resistances in history can fizzle or get crushed, but this one probably won't. The US abandoned Af-Pak again right after invasion and created the disaster in Iraq. Recruitment among Taliban increased among the ruins. The Pak state was sympathetic and played double games by being a safe haven.
@Iron hand: A tweiight zone you live in with a paranoia! Tell us if the Amricans have ever won a war on their own in their entire history.; o'k, granted Granada was a great feat! Calling names will not help win the hearts and minds of the people either. There is no shame in accepting ground realities,
Rex Minor
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@Rex Minor: That's quite a rich fantasy world you live in, where the American military hides in bunkers and the Taliban won the war! Maybe if your terrorist heroes stopped intentionally murdering innocent men, women and children at every opportunity, put on uniforms and actually fought like soliders rather than homicidal maniacs, the war would be over sooner rather than later. I won't hold my breath, because these brainwashed sadists will continue to justify every act of evil brutality in the name of their "religion" just as you apparently do. No matter - they will eventually be wiped out either way.
@bigsaf: The talibans are not Nationalists and their faith in religion is softer than that of the christian evangelists; in some instances though they give the perception of being religious because their tribal chief happens to be a theologist as well. Talibans equals Resistance against Foreign!! No one has the ideology or ambition to impose one nor the culture of collaboration with foreign elements. Each tribe speaks a specific dialect which allows them to maintain security within their own territory. Everyone with a different dialect is regarded a foeign element. This is the secret of their military confrontation with superior forces. The former 4 star General Macchrystal had several reports from his consultant security specialists, which became the basis for his assessment that that the war against the Pashtuns Talibans is not winnible.! No power in the world can defeat RESISTANCE, Peiod. The Talibans have no specfic role once the force used by non Pashto speaking pople disappears!!
Rex Minor
@Iron hand: Progressive morality? You must be sitting in a bunker like the japanese soldier in the jungle at one year after the end of war not knowing that Japan had surrendered!
Rex Minor
The taliban can thank the progressive morality of the western civilization they despise for their continued existence. The American military has operated with extreme restraint in dealing with them to spare civilians. Think how easy it would be to wipe the taliban off the face of the earth in the absence of such restraint.
The writer has expressed his opinion in a logical manner but the fata needs to be rehabilitated by curbing the radicalization,the rigid Islamic view of the issues inculcated by conservatives since their birth. This needs to be tackle by long term policies and the young generation of fata should be provided opportunities by properly allowing them to groom themselves out of this radicalized,conservative area in some viable culture of versatile society comprising of many sects.It seems difficult to curb the ongoing wave of violence by any way because of the ripe narrow mentality of the society due to the lack of the proper strategy in past.The mistakes of the past should not be repeated.
"..The time is also ripe for a counter-insurgency strategy that incorporates local lashkars as local militias, which can be the first line of defence in a village..." Seriously? That is precisely what the khakis tried and result? The talibans killed most of the tribal leaders, their families and anybody who was part of ant-taliban lashkar. This has destroyed whatever social structure the tribal people had and IDPs. Now they are rudderless ships!
An informative article. I specially like the idea that ideally foreign aid should be conditional and tied to improvement of governance indicators in troubled areas. If U.S. thought wisely, this would have been a more pragmatic and viable approach to solving the insurgency problem in Af-Pak region.
Mr Zaidi, you mean well, and articulate your poits in a logcal manner, but think differently. Th Talibans do not negotiate, nevr have in their history. They have demands, the enemy must appease or confront them with power to defeat them. They have been victorious in history no one has defeated them on the battle ground.
There are no militants Pashtuns nor have they any love with non Pashtun foreign organisations. They are strictly controlled by the tribal elders and your philosophy of lashkars and counter insurgency is old coffe from the colonial history. The foreign forces are sitting in a hole and one hopes that they will extricate thmselves from the quagmire in good health, though the news reports print a different story. Nawaz Sharif has announced to help as soon as he takes over.
Rex Minor
Killing of minorities, systematic massacres against civilians, brutality against women, burning girls schools, destroying Buddha statues at Bamyan, and banning music has absolutely nothing to do with Pashtun culture.