The writer is a consulting editor with The Statesman and writes widely for several newspapers in India
The urgency is reflected in the rushed visit, particularly as President Karzai’s second term comes to an end with the pullout of the US troops from Afghanistan in 2014. Longevity for his government seems to be directly hinged to Indian military support; regional dialogue between different players — the list including Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan and Saarc itself — for a resolution aimed at keeping the Taliban at bay or, at least, preventing it from emerging as the key player; and strengthening trade initiatives by upgrading the Chabahar port and concluding the trilateral agreement between India, Afghanistan and Iran.
Sources said that Afghanistan has been urging New Delhi to upgrade its defence assistance to troops on the ground, or more specifically, aircraft in the air. India has been openly reluctant to do this, given the resistance at home, but a worried President Karzai has not given up, and hopes to persuade the UPA government to increase the level of assistance to cover more sophisticated military equipment and some level of air power support. The Taliban are virtually breathing down the Karzai government’s neck, and it is seriously worried about survival after the withdrawal of US troops. Currently, talks between Afghanistan and the US are about the kind of support that will be left behind, in terms of the number of troops, infrastructure and military hardware in Afghanistan. President Karzai has spoken earlier of nine US bases in Afghanistan after the withdrawal.
The elections in Pakistan have not given any comfort to President Karzai. More so, as even the prime minister-designate of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, is clear that his government will initiate a dialogue with the Taliban. The emergence of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Imran Khan as a key player in the crucial province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, too, does not provide solace to the government in Kabul, as he has been very clear through the electoral campaign about beginning serious and goal-driven talks with the Taliban. The unvoiced fear in Kabul is that the Taliban, still a cohesive force despite the long war on terror, will be encouraged by the developments in Pakistan and withdrawal of the US troops to lay siege to Kabul once again. And this time with little resistance unless other countries in the region realise, as the Afghan envoy put it, “the common need to drive out terrorism and restore stability and peace”. The only problem is that while all the stakeholders are for this, there are at least two important players — Pakistan and the US — that believe this will come not from isolating but from talking to the Taliban. Iran and India are probably the only countries in the immediate vicinity of Afghanistan which are as unhappy as the government in Kabul about this option.
The UPA government has been dragging its feet on the Chabahar port although it is officially now committed to it. It is not in a position to upgrade military assistance to Afghanistan, at least insofar as direct involvement of its soldiers is concerned. In fact, no government in New Delhi will get the people’s mandate to fight someone else’s war in another country. Secondly, direct intervention will bring terrorism to India’s door and that is a risk that no government is willing to take. And third, no one will say it but it is a silent fact of political diplomacy, that the Karzai government without the support of the US is like a tiny boat adrift and no country will have the time, resources or the interest in bringing it to shore, India included.
At the same time, no one in New Delhi or for that matter in Kabul, believes that Pakistan will be in a position to convince the Taliban to have a minimal say in government at best, and in return, end terrorism and restore peace in the region. The real fear here is that the “deal” will work to the advantage of the Taliban. All in all, a mess in which all the headless chickens are hopping around, without a plan or an idea or a strategy that could actually work.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 18th, 2013.
COMMENTS (11)
Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
For more information, please see our Comments FAQ
@Feroz: Excellent comment. Totally agree with you.
Shabby analysis from an author who apparently has little knowledge of the issues.
@Feroz: Very well said my friend, very well indeed.
Do u guys thinks Hawks in islamabad will wait and watch what Karzai (who lived twenty years in quetta on pak bread) wanna do no way dears......
The Authors grasp of Foreign Policy and the reality playing out in Afghanistan is very weak. India is not interested in the outcome of Afghan elections and who rules there and has never been. By building Roads, schools, clinics and infrastructure across Afghanistan worth over $ 2 Billion it has won all the battles for the Hearts of Afghans. Pakistan has focused all its resources on propping up the Taliban and trying to bring it into the Power structure not democratically but by use of Gun. I do not believe that Afghans are so naive as to not see the obvious. The canard spread by Pakistan that India dislikes Pashtuns runs thin because Indians and Pashtuns lived side by side as brothers and neighbors for centuries. Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan's contribution to the Indian freedom struggle is written in letters of Gold and he remains till date the only non Indian Muslim to win India's highest Civilian Honor -- Bharat Ratna. Afghans have lived a generation of violence and have seen their territory used and abused. India should not get involved in who rules Afghanistan but must continue to invest in development and educational projects that promise Afghan citizens a better tomorrow. There is no better formula. Leave the Afghans to figure out what is best for them.
If the US ever moves out of Afghanistan, which I doubt they want do do, the Taliban will move in. The Taliban defeated the Northern Alliance, the US moved in and handed power to the Northern Alliance, and now the Taliban will await their opportunity the way they have since the days of the RAJ, and take over again. They will not have to wait too long. America is fighting 74 wars and will shortly go bankrupt.
@waqar khan: "can India dare wear American shoes?" No need for that, do you seriously think America is going anywhere?
@waqar khan: "Madam Seema Mustafa,is it an analysis or an epithap on Dead Strategy followed by India in Afghanistan. You have acknowledged that there is no military solution in Afghanistan,can India dare wear American shoes? "
India's dead strategy? Did you even read the OpEd? Karzai is asking India to get boots on the ground and air support. India is refusing to do anything more than training Afghan army. So it is not a question of 'daring' to wear American shoes. India does not do things on a dare. IT does them for national interest. It is not in India's national interest to get involved in foreign wars. So do tell me how is India's strategy dead?
Would like to refresh your memory that it is Pakistan which had a strategic depth policy which it has now been forced to abandon.
Picture nicely drawn. My view is that the lesson to be learnt by all some 35 years ago was, to leave Afghanistan alone........this lesson was not learnt then and still has not been learnt today.
.
Madam Seema Mustafa,is it an analysis or an epithap on Dead Strategy followed by India in Afghanistan. You have acknowledged that there is no military solution in Afghanistan,can India dare wear American shoes? Why cry now,lets all sit on one table and talk,Taliban included.
"The elections in Pakistan have not given any comfort to President Karzai. More so, as even the prime minister-designate of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, is clear that his government will initiate a dialogue with the Taliban."
Nawaz Sharif's statement refers to TTP. HAs nothing to do with Afghanistan. Secondly, Afghanistan has never been reluctant to negotiate with Afghan Taliban. If at all anyone was preventing it earlier, it was Pakistan, who wanted the confluct to continue (think : imprisonment of Mullah Ghani Biradar).
"The UPA government has been dragging its feet on the Chabahar port although it is officially now committed to it. It is not in a position to upgrade military assistance to Afghanistan, at least insofar as direct involvement of its soldiers is concerned. In fact, no government in New Delhi will get the people’s mandate to fight someone else’s war in another country."
The first statement of yours that I agree with. Thank God for that. We got involved in Sri Lanka at their government's request and consequently suffered LTTE terrorism including killing of Rajiv Gandhi. No encore is needed.
"The unvoiced fear in Kabul is that the Taliban, still a cohesive force despite the long war on terror, will be encouraged by the developments in Pakistan and withdrawal of the US troops to lay siege to Kabul once again. And this time with little resistance "
There is an Afghan National Army. How valiantly they fight Afghan Taliban will depend on how much of a mandate Karzai has vs. Afghan Taliban.