To date, developing Asia’s energy needs have risen rapidly in tandem with its economic expansion, which is on the upswing again despite the economic doldrums afflicting other parts of the world. China’s recovery is firming to 8.2 per cent this year, India’s recovery should reach six per cent if reform can build momentum, and region-wide developing Asia’s GDP growth should climb to a healthy 6.6 per cent in 2013.
If developing Asia maintains a six per cent annual growth rate, its share of world GDP will increase from 28 per cent to 44 per cent by 2035, with the region’s energy consumption rapidly rising to 56 per cent over the same time frame.
Consumption needs could be even greater, as Asia’s leaders also face a moral imperative of extending the benefits of electricity to their more than half a billion people who are still, literally, in the dark. Ensuring affordable energy for the poor is central to the notion of “inclusive growth”, the kind of growth whose benefits reach the poorest and most vulnerable segments of society. Yet, getting those people connected will require a fivefold increase in yearly energy investments — and will result in an even greater environmental fallout.
The region’s desperate need for more energy is also problematic for several other reasons. The region may well possess a quarter of world coal reserves, but has only 16 per cent of conventional gas reserves and 15 per cent of technically recoverable oil and natural gas liquids. To bridge this gap, it will have to triple oil imports by 2035, rendering it vulnerable to external energy price shocks.
If Asia maintains its current energy mix, coal use will increase by 81 per cent, oil consumption will double and the use of natural gas will more than triple. This would raise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to over 20 billion tonnes by 2035. In effect, Asia’s emissions alone would swamp global targets. The harsh truth is that there is no magic pill — Asia must act now if it is to power inclusive, sustainable growth this century.
Containing the burgeoning energy demand is critical. Replacing inefficient general fuel subsidies with targeted subsidies should be the first step. Consumer fuel subsidies impose a tremendous burden on public budgets. Those who benefit from subsidies — and invariably resist scrapping them — are rarely the poor.
One increasingly feasible possibility is for Asia to utilise its substantial reserves of shale gas to offset coal use. Asia’s geology is incompletely investigated, but indications are that China has the world’s largest shale gas resources — nearly 20 per cent of the total. With India and Pakistan also possessing sizeable shale gas reserves, unconventional gas could provide a cleaner bridge to a future that is less dependent on fossil fuels.
Asia faces a dilemma over nuclear power. The Fukushima disaster underscored the risks and reminds us of the three challenges to viable nuclear power: proliferation, waste management and safety. But if nuclear power was phased out and replaced by the current energy mix, carbon dioxide emissions from Asia’s power sector would rocket. Regional integration of energy markets can have great benefits. Connecting electricity and gas grids across borders can create economies of scale that improve efficiency.
The region must strive to establish a Pan-Asian Energy Market by 2030, aspiring to the degree of regional cooperation that currently prevails in Europe. There’s an imperative here to share information and harmonise regulations, standards and pricing policies. The reality is that Asia is on an unsustainable path where growth trumps environmental costs. But eventually — perhaps, sooner than most are willing to accept — this imbalance will erode Asia’s gains. Action is needed on all fronts if the “Clean Asian Century” is to be more than just a slogan.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 3rd, 2013.
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@Bala: I have explicitly stated in my comment that sustainable energy is the way forward which itself means I know the value of limited resources and technology to develop unconventional sources of energy. I will be the first in line along with you to cut out wasteful energy distribution whether it is diesel or electricity. I have absolutely no problems with people who can afford it to pay the market price for diesel. My comment was aimed at the apologetic tone of the writer where he is almost sorry that the rise of Asia in this century will give the world rising green house gasses and a depletion of natural resources if these countries can provide economic prosperity to its desperately poor masses. I am not taking an emotional view on the matter. I am taking a regional view of it. Every single environment convention Kyoto onwards has been an utter failure along with the deadlock at Doha round of talks of the WTO because it's the developed nations who are not ready to make compromises. It's us who have to take the CLEAN part to development while Europe(except russia) resource wise the worlds poorest continent is the most developed!! Wonder how that came about??
@Siddharth Pandey:
Do not look at these with emotional eyes. The author is pointing out that fuel is a precious resource and it had to be used properly, becuase its implications are negative both economically and environmentally (ie India has to import fuel with dollars)..there are no easy answers. When he says remove subsidy ..loot at it this way ...deisel is subsidized india ...but indirectly india is subsidizing deisel engines/cars/ generators that run several companies... instad of such general subsidy, its better to target the poor polulation alone..the rest must be made to pay the fair price for deisel and other fuels ..
Although the article is on the future of energy needs in the Asian context I must say the article comes awfully close to American claims of International Food prices rising due to people in India and China eating more. What did you expect from us?? To stay foolish, stay hungry?? That sustainable energy is the future is a no brainier, what amazes me is how these lessons are given to Asian countries while the west continues to dump green house gasses. For a 100 years the west has advanced and progressed by annihilating the planets resources. Now, when just a handful of developing nations are on the cusp of real progress we are handed out lessons on how our rising energy consumption will be harmful. Subsidies should be cut for targeted subsidies?? Sir may I remind you we have 800million people in India earning 2dollars a day. Situation in most of Asia including china is as bad. How do you expect these people to pay electricity bills when they can't afford 2 meals a day?? Please compare even today the carbon footprint of a German, Scandanavian or an American to a South Asian or a Chinese. You will get the picture on the ground!! The suggestion on shale gas exploration is a good one and being looked into in India and China atleast. Also in India we are close to a breakthrough in producing nuclear energy using thorium as the base which is abundantly available here.
I must say that you keep your sermon away from our Pakistan and North Korea. We have decided to invest only in the large armies, missiles and bombs. We have chosen to eat grass and do not particularly care about the progress or green house gases. Do you think that Taliban would care about technocrats? They have faith in God not men or technology. If we run out of fuel the world and region would have to supply us the energy as we are super power.
You say nothing of the prodigious investments that India, China and UAE have already committed to renewable energy, a trend that is likely to extrapolate well into the middle of this century.
And as Graham Allison and Ambassador Blackwill, both of Harvard Kennedy School of Government, point out in their recent book titled Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World, there is better than a fighting chance that the remediation efforts on part of the leading Asian countries to stem the tide of environmental degradation through accelerated renewable energy conversion programs will succeed.