Complicated

This country can do with some fresh ideas. After all, what is the point of repeating the same mistake over and over again? If you are overawed by the new ruthless scrutiny regime before the elections, try to recall Ayub Khan’s Elected Bodies Disqualification Ordinance (EBDO) through which a politician could be disqualified for eight years and kept in detention without trial for 12 months. Or perhaps, General Ziaul Haq’s Martial Law Order 53, allowing the death penalty for anyone indulging in “any offence liable to cause insecurity, fear or despondency amongst the public”, may ring a bell. General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s memories are only too fresh to be recounted here.

So, has anything really changed today? For the past 54 years, our deep state has been busy trying to reform our political class with incrementally poorer results. Another project was to hone new national leadership. The hanging of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and the exile of Nawaz Sharif prove that even here, it did not have much luck. If still in doubt, please look around. Does it look like this country is in any better hands today?

Perhaps, the problem lies not with the political class but with the deep state itself. We are told repeatedly that every major political party relevant today was born in our establishment’s nursery. Is it not prudent then to shut this nursery down for good, rather than experiment further with the genetic modifications that come back to haunt you?

If truth be told, it is our establishment that is broken and all this talk of reform is mere hyperbole. Musharraf tried to reinvent it, for the sheer sake of self-preservation, and ended up breaking it into two halves. Right now, on one hand you have what remains of Zia’s establishment, and on the other, a new, rather vitriolic one, invented by Musharraf. The latter felt cheated out of its destiny when Musharraf was sent packing owing to the former’s coup and has waited long enough to get back at it. In a marriage of convenience, both sides have formed a momentary alliance to first teach politicians a lesson, who abandoned both from time to time. Once politicians have been sorted out, the real fight will resume.

The returning officers, so priggishly devouring politicians, are unwittingly working for Zia’s gang. Both sides insist that this exercise is absolutely essential to bring the house back in order. However, whatever the nature of this grand design, it will only lead to one catastrophe after another. Reason?

In short, our new establishment is battle-fatigued and the older one adamant that fighting terrorists was never a good idea. As the time of US withdrawal from the region comes closer, many believe the latter may prevail. So, just for the sake of homework, the liberals, the moderates and the secular-minded are the new target practice. Many of our foreign friends watch quietly under the illusion that this may lead to something close to an Arab Spring. It won’t. Instead, what you will get is a deeply radicalised headless monster.

And where is General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in all of this? Unfortunately, nowhere. While the old establishment has no love lost for him, the new one is not over Musharraf yet. What else do you expect when a general is allowed to remain the head of state and the master puppeteer of the government for almost a decade, while retaining his uniform and strongly backed by western powers? For every officer promoted during this period, loyalty to the nation, institution and Musharraf was bound to become synonymous. This is a deep-seated conditioning that can only be healed by time. And now that Musharraf is back in the picture, this complicates the situation further. For what it’s worth, General Kayani has the right kind of ideas about the role of the army and the future of democracy. But what can you do in such a deeply conflicted and delusional polity?

The purpose of this piece, dear readers, is to remind you that things may get even uglier and that the moderates and liberals of the country are on their own for now.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 6^th, 2013.