The writer is a public policy analyst and former interior secretary
While China has strongly denied this, a few facts about proliferation in South Asia need to be recalled. India’s nuclear test in May of 1974 generated huge concern, prompting Pakistan and regional countries to galvanise world opinion in favour of South Asia being declared a nuclear weapons free zone. Over subsequent years, Pakistan made other proposals aimed at keeping the region — which had already seen more than its share of conflicts — safe from this scourge. India, however, chose to ignore these initiatives. Consequently, Pakistan initiated its own programme and succeeded in emulating India when the latter carried out fresh tests in May 1998. And yet, Pakistan did not abandon hopes of managing this “scourge”, offering to India the Strategic Restraint Regime, containing three interlocking elements of nuclear restraint, conventional balance and dispute settlement. To Pakistan’s regret, this comprehensive proposal has failed to evoke any response from its neighbour. While the merits of Indian policy could be debated, the attitude of many major powers continues to puzzle Pakistanis and others interested in restraining proliferation in South Asia.
India’s huge market for nuclear technology beckons many a reactor manufacturer, but surely, governments should take a more measured and responsible view, which is why the Bush Administration’s decision in 2005 to offer a civilian nuclear deal to India was so shocking. It ridiculed not only US domestic laws, but called for exemption from provisions of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the NSG that virtually destroyed the very rationale of these global understandings. This has been followed by bilateral agreements by others for supply of nuclear technology to India that calls into question their commitment to the concept of non-proliferation, as the US-India deal excluded from safeguards eight Indian reactors suitable for weapons-grade plutonium production. Similarly, the 13 breeder reactors have been left out of safeguards and to leave no ambiguity, the Indian prime minister has affirmed that no part of India’s nuclear programme would be placed under safeguards if it was of a strategic nature. The US, however, claims that these concessions to India serve the cause of global non-proliferation.
Notwithstanding, Pakistan’s modest nuclear cooperation with China continues to draw criticism from the US, with Pakistan being accused of engaging in nuclear proliferation and China of violating its commitments to the NSG. Yet, it is well known that Pakistan and China signed a 30-year civil nuclear cooperation agreement in September 1986. Subsequently, additional agreements were entered into prior to China joining the NSG in 2004, under whose provisions it has been engaged in building nuclear reactors in Pakistan. Consequently, China is under no legal bar to assist Pakistan meet its massive energy needs. Nor is Pakistan under any obligation to end its cooperation with China, especially as all of Pakistan’s nuclear reactors for power generation, including those planned for the future, would be under safeguards. As Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment pointed out in a recent piece, there is nothing in the NSG guidelines that prevents continuing Sino-Pakistan cooperation as “the NSG guidelines are voluntary understandings of governments”. And Mark Krepon, a well-known expert in this field, has emphasised: “The NSG has become less consensual and the NPT weaker”, as a result of the US-India deal.
Pakistan is convinced that if NPT signatory states, such as France, Russia, the UK, Japan and the US, can offer nuclear technology to India, a non-NPT signatory state, the US and its allies have little moral standing to suggest that Pakistan and China refrain from similar cooperation.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 3rd, 2013.
COMMENTS (34)
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@Kalchackra, u wellcome bro.
@S: I know its a surprise for you guys given that we have ourselves so many problem to sort out. Its ironocal .. isn't it? You see the thing is that when certain factions (official and non-state) from your country have such vast interest in ours and they have so many things going on here (atleast they try to even if they are not successful) that its hard for us not to put our attention to Pakistan and all its events. It helps us in understanding the different ideologies which are in existence in your country as well as the psychological aspects of your institutions as they more or less are a reflection of the general mass.
“…with Pakistan being accused of engaging in nuclear proliferation …”
And Dr A.Q.Khan having admitted the same.
@S Its not yours. Its an American by ownership. Just update your knowledge.
Gulam Rasool "Kuldeep sharma" New Delhi
@indians it's hilarious how so many of u come here to comment. Calm guys and focus on ur own news papers
@Author
Nice article with lot of 'justifications'. I am sure if anyday Pakistan uses its nuclear bomb or some militant organization gets hold of the same then you will write a similar article with nicely articulated arguments.
Bravo, bravo. Keep it up.
What if they attack the nuclear reactor as they attacked the grid station? You cannot move the nuclear reactor in unmarked vans as you move your nuclear weapons.
"India’s nuclear test in May of 1974 generated huge concern, prompting Pakistan and regional countries to galvanise world opinion in favour of South Asia being declared a nuclear weapons free zone. Over subsequent years, Pakistan made other proposals aimed at keeping the region — which had already seen more than its share of conflicts — safe from this scourge. India, however, chose to ignore these initiatives. Consequently, Pakistan initiated its own programme and succeeded ...."
This statement is untrue. After Pakistan's 1971 defeat, ZAB initiated the programme long before 1974 India test. Pakistan was biding time, so it offered a nuclear free Soth Asia but she had no intention of going down that road. It was negotiating from a position of weakness and wanted to buy a decade or two. In 1979 Soviets came into Afghanistan and the US needed a way in to defeat the Soviets. So they allowed Pakistan to carry on with their clandestine nuclear programme something they regret doing to this day. Pakistan was well on its way when the ban on open testing came into force in the early 90s. By responding to India's 1998 tests Pakistan simply converted the covert into overt programme. I suspect somewhere between 1986 and 1992 Chinese validated the Pakistani bomb (possibly originally their own design) tesing it above ground. The rest is history.
@Ajaath why dont bbc make movie about 1947 genocide cause by britain.
@ahmed41:
"Better to ask JAPAN, GERMANY and RUSSIA etc."
Actually you demolished your point. If a well organized and high-technology country like Japan can have problems with nuclear tech, Pakistan definitely will. Especially with China's reactors!
Remember the Civilian Reactors(of which 4th one is coming up now) are near Karachi. If something happens, the entire city of Karachi will be uninhabitable for decades!!!!
Millions will die, millions will suffer due to cancer. What is the population of Karachi? 20 Mil?
So, what was your point again? :)
@ajaath They never gonna say good about pakistan no matter what we do pakistan saved future of millions of its people and safeguard the boundery lines.... god bless khan ...
Is Nuclear Technology SAFE ?
Better to ask JAPAN, GERMANY and RUSSIA etc.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCnE4v3JEP8 Please watch this BBC documentary. In this doc. AQ khan, father of Pakistani N. technology is portrayed as "The Terror Trader” and reveals that how Pakistan got the N. technology. Now tell us how can the world trust Pakistan & its establishments anymore? NPT signatory states, such as France, Russia, UK, Japan and US, offers nuclear technology to India, a non-NPT signatory state, because of the "TRUST" that India will never ever attempt to proliferate N. technology/weapon to any other country & India's intention is purely defense & energy. We have unilaterally decided to go for NO FIRST USE even at the time we face bigger threat from PRC. Can Pakistan do the same?
@Hella So called proliferation is allowed for others but not for poor pakistan what kind of double standerd we lived in u ever think of it. america gonna give civilion nuc tech to india but if china build power plant every one starts crying why u indiano become so hypo........
I notice the author is now described as a "public policy analyst and former Interior Secretary". Somebody has had enough of his jejune pieces on foreign policy and strategy! This one in today's ET is no exception.
@Ali tanoli Sir reason of objection is clear we are Muslims….. thanks to china who understand this conflict.
where is the religion in it? if there is, then there are similar no. of Muslims as of Pakistan. after 2045 India will be Muslim country by population stats.
Gulam Rasool"Kuldeep sharma" New Delhi
@kaalchakra: @Ali tanoli: Of the three countries to whom Pakistan proliferated nuclear technology, two were muslim countries (if you consider Iran a muslim country) and the third was a non-muslim country. Without the proof provided by these two muslim countries, it would have been impossible to pin down Pakistan on proliferation. Pakistan considers itself a muslim country and tries to tag along with other muslim countries but other muslim countries do not think so.
When 3 nuclear countries (India, China, Pakistan) are in close proximity to each other AND when it is well-known that Pakistan sees itself with China in a higher-than-mountains relationship, to suggest that India and Pakistan should disarm nuclear weapons with no heed to China is disingenuous. . Thanks for giving me my daily dose of humour.
Indians are thankful the Army Generals who used Dr. Khan to proliferate nuclear technology. Had this not happened, world would have judged India and Pakistan on the same standards. Pakistan had a 2nd chance. They could have come out clean on the proliferation and punished the army generals who were the real proliferators. But the army had complete power. They made a scapegoat of Dr. Khan and did not allow him to be questioned by US. This made all the difference and US de-hypernated India and Pakistan. Had Pakistan not proliferated or had it at least come out with the truth and punished the army generals, India would have been judged on the same standards and either both India and Pakistan would have been sanctioned and denied nuclear technology or both would have benefited.
Saudis funded the program but Pakistan proliferated it to Iran and also to Gaddafi who had called the Saudi Royals all sorts of names. You can see that in the years after this came to light, KSA's relation with Pakistan has been going down steadily and India's relationship with KSA is going up. The same goes for its relationship with the Emirates also.
My view is that Pakistan had the right and was also correct in getting the technology by any means. However, the desire and actions to unseat KSA and become the leader of Ummah through reckless proliferation has backfired on Pakistan.
@Ali tanoli:
Are there any Muslim in North Korea?
The Indian role in the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971 followed by its atomic tests in 1974 made Pakistan desperate to acquire the technology by any means necessary to safeguard its survival without going into the morality issue
@Ali tanoli: I thought that both Uyghairs and Baloch are also Muslims.....
@Ali tanoli: So China helping Pakistan because Pakistan is a Muslim country and whole world is after it's nuclear arsenal. Hmm Man !!China does have some soft corner at last. I mean they are communist. They don't let their own people follow religion they way they want it. They are making things miserable for their own Uighur Muslim population in XinXiang but they are helping Pakistan for it being a Muslim country. Bravo to China and happy dreaming to Pakistani thinking this way :)
....continues to puzzle Pakistanis....
The reason Pakistanis are puzzled is because they are addressing the wrong country with all these proposals. Instead of India, they need to propose Afghanistan with all these nuclear-free and disarmanent proposals. This is more appropriate. India will only deal with China in Asia.
Pakistan and China co-operation would have happened irrespective of Indian deals. As far as Indians are concerned, we beleive nuclear weapons enhances Indian security and we will pursue them as per international norms. Also, South Asia is not a standalone security world, its part of the bigger world and India looks beyond South Asia.
It does not make any sense of Pakistanis to shed crocodile tears for NPT when Pakistan is part of a select few countries that actually prolifered nuclear know-who. Good luck to Pakistanis to actually generate electricity at low cost from chinese build nuclear plants, Keep building as many nuclear plants as you want :)
Is the author upset at China for not building nuclear power plants or just upset at the USA for helping India? The reality is that Pakistan has a legacy for nuclear proliferation which may haunt it forever and certainly make it very difficult for any country to assist with any nuclear endeavor. If the author is looking for someone to blame I suggest he focus on Pakistan. . On the bright side - nuclear power is expensive and perhaps one of the most expensive on the planet when you factor in decommissioning/storage cost. Combine that with Pakistan's lack of expertise in running, managing and maintaining nuclear power plants and Pakistan maybe better off choosing another form of energy.
Ali Tanoli
Sir, as days pass, fewer and fewer people are willing to stand for the truth. Thanks for being one of those brave people.
Pakistan made other proposals aimed at keeping the region — which had already seen more than its share of conflicts — safe from this scourge. Sir, it is easy to free yourselves (and the South Asian region) from the scourge of nuclear conflict. All you need is a no-first use policy, and the likelihood of nuclear weapons ever being used (by either side) in a war with India is (in principle) reduced to nil. India's first use policy ensures that it will only respond in kind to a nuclear attack, and not initiate it. Can you do the same? If not, pls stop trying to create an equivalence with India on this subject - the world (which includes China) has de-hyphenated us long back.
Sound arguments but all negated by Pakistan's proliferation record. Remember Dr.A.Q.Khan and the nuclear blackmarket. Pakistan can of course argue that it can sell nuclear knowhow to whosoever it wishes and rest of the world can argue that they will stop Pakistan howsoever they can. I am sure that the author does know that the real world is not ideal. Just as the US could could look the other way when Pakistan was acquiring nuclear weapons, it can now sign a nuclear deal with India. Everyone knows that both NPT and the P5 are unfair. The world still lives with that. So Pakistan should go ahead with what it wants to do and also be willing to pay the price.
The whole point dear Mr. Fatemi is that India's nuclear program is not directed against any specific country, but is basically targeted for providing for its domestic energy needs where as Pakistan's nuclear program is directed against A specific country (and we all know which one it is) -- that is the essence of the issue here. That is why other countries (and eventually I am sure even China will follow here) are interested in developing India's nuclear energy needs but Pakistan will always be seen as the nuclear "rogue state" -- along the lines of countries like North Korea and Iran.
Sir reason of objection is clear we are muslims..... thanks to china who understand this conflict.
"...with Pakistan being accused of engaging in nuclear proliferation ..."
Perhaps the author forgets - these accusations have been proven - and your country has been exposed on the world stage as a rogue, nuclear proliferating nation!! And those who think, the AQ Khan ran his own 'private' network; think again. Proliferation at that level is not possible without the state being involved.
Pakistan dispalys "Shaheen" missiles which look remarkably like the North Korean Taepodong missiles; and poof - North Korea becomes a nuclear power! What a coincidence!
So perhaps, a bit of self-reflection is required before penning columns like this, no?