Indian interest in Pakistani politics

The appointment of Najam Sethi has been welcomed across the board in India.

India and Pakistan keep a hawk’s eye watch on developments in each other’s countries. Elections, thus, are no exception, with Delhi households avidly discussing Pakistan’s internal affairs, such as the appointment of well-known journalist Najam Sethi as the caretaker chief minister of Punjab and the return of former president General (retd) Pervez Musharraf to his country after four long years in virtual exile. General (retd) Musharraf is, of course, dominating Indian discourse towards the run-up to the elections in Pakistan. And for good reasons, starting with Kargil, moving through the Agra summit, touching on his famous Kashmir “solution” and ending with his exit from Pakistan after cracking down on the judiciary and the Lal Masjid. Significantly, the chattering classes of Delhi in particular had moved from a “hate Musharraf” position to an almost warm, welcoming posture through this journey, and hence, found it difficult to cope with the fact that the escalating Musharraf barometer here was actually coinciding with a dipping barometer in Pakistan. There is clearly something ironic in the fact that New Delhi refused to recognise the general and do business with him when he was rather popular in Pakistan, and discovered his “qualities” just after Pakistanis had decided to shun him. The result was that the former president of Pakistan seemed easier on Indian television channels than on Pakistani talk shows, where his nervousness and irritation was often more than apparent.

The fact that the general has returned to full-time politics does not surprise anyone here. At least, not more than the fact that he has actually defied threats to his life and returned to contest the forthcoming elections from not one but three constituencies. Given his obvious unpopularity in Pakistan, he is being seen as a spent force in government circles here. However, there are some in the security establishment who refuse to believe that Pakistan will see a free and fair election and hence, insist on putting their money on the former president with the argument that given the current political options, Washington would like to see a “friendly” face at the helm of affairs. It is no secret in Pakistan, and hence in India, that Saudi Arabia facilitated Musharraf’s return to Pakistan by persuading the government and the opposition to give him full security and a chance at the hustings.

Surprisingly, Musharraf’s statement that he was proud of the Kargil operations did not invite an Indian response, probably because it has not enthused the Pakistanis, with former ISI chiefs debunking his claims, describing Kargil as “hare-brained” and saying that Musharraf should have “faced a court martial” for his misadventure. It is interesting to note that this time around, India does not seem to have any favourites for the elections, having as good or bad a relationship with all in the fray. This is certainly a change from the past, with India quite prepared to do business with President Asif Ali Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan or Pervez Musharraf at this stage.

The appointment of Sethi has been welcomed across the board here, more so as he is a popular and frequent visitor to India. His words are sober, his writings unemotional and he has many friends here who hope to visit Lahore now during the elections. Sethi’s warning that he will deal with all equally while in office as caretaker chief minister was dismissed by some of his India friends. But his appointment has brought home to even the cynics here that Pakistan is serious about its elections and that it is appointing able and impartial persons to the crucial top offices for ensuring a fair poll. A familiar face in position has helped quell some of the suspicions here about the elections in Pakistan being free and fair.

The third aspect of the Pakistani elections that has sparked interest in Indian drawing rooms is the reported feud between President Zardari and his son, Bilawal. Will the young prince return or will he stay away? What impact will his absence have on the PPP? The Nehru-Gandhi family has often been compared in political drawing rooms with the Bhutto-Zardari dynasty with Bilawal being seen by political leaders as more charismatic than the Congress scion Rahul. Even as they speculate, Congress leaders offer silent prayers in relief that their family, at least, is united with relations warm and seemingly uncomplicated — more so, as the Indian elections are just around the corner, with the minority UPA government dependent entirely on the goodwill of unpredictable regional parties to survive the long year to the general elections.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 30^th, 2013.