Keeping up with the Kashmiris

Indian-held Kashmir is once again reverberating with the sound of gunfire and chants of the youth demanding rights.

Indian-held Kashmir is once again reverberating with the sound of gunfire and chants of the youth demanding their rights. After the Amarnath land transfer controversy, the gruesome rape and murder of two Kashmiri girls in Shopian and countless other human rights abuses blamed on Indian security forces, the Kashmiri youth have had enough of their leaders’ inability to convert their voices into an opportunity to find a solution to the lingering dispute. The youth are equally fed up with the militancy and the heavy-handed crackdown by Indian forces, which have compounded their miseries for over two decades.

These sentiments have given rise to a spontaneous, leaderless movement of anti-India demonstrations that began in June and has grown in intensity since. The pro-India, pro-Pakistan or orthodox Kashmiri leadership have not succeeded in hijacking the movement so far. The situation begs the question: Does the movement have the potential to groom a new leadership in Kashmir? It has happened before. In the late 1980s the anger transformed into an insurgency and a new breed of militant and political leadership emerged. One has to wonder about the makeup and priorities of any new leadership, given the youth’s rejection of the militancy and the current political milieu in Kashmir.

The current movement suggests that such a leadership will persist with the Kashmiris’ demands for freedom from oppression and occupation. But the question is how much leeway would it have to change the dynamics of current political trends and what are the probabilities for India or Pakistan to manoeuvre the changing scenario in their favour?

The attitude of the Indian and Pakistani governments does not reflect any futuristic approach, at least not yet. According to an interesting comment from New Delhi, the policy of the Indian central government to tackle the wave of violence in Kashmir is to not have a policy at all. The Indian establishment thinks that the violence has become seasonal and would eventually subside if the government does nothing. The assessment in New Delhi is that the upsurge will subside after the Commonwealth Games end and would at most, stretch until the visit by US President Barack Obama scheduled for November.

However, Pakistan seems confused on how to react. Unlike the past, Islamabad has not lodged a formal protest with Delhi nor initiated any diplomatic efforts to raise the matter internationally. Prime Minister Gilani has only “reaffirmed” Pakistan’s support “for the just cause of the people of Kashmir”. This silence is conspicuous when the situation in Kashmir had handed Pakistan an opportunity to launch an effective diplomatic offensive, especially at a time when Indian diplomats are at a loss on how to shift the blame for the unrest on Pakistan. The perception in Islamabad is that now is not the appropriate time for an initiative on Kashmir because of Pakistan’s internal problems, caused by massive floods, terrorism and the situation on the border with Afghanistan. It really comes down to whether Pakistan can afford the cost of a principled stance on Kashmir.

But this is a crucial juncture for Pakistan. By failing to raise its voice it would lose the opportunity to win the hearts of the Kashmiris and with that their confidence. If that were to happen Islamabad would be little more than a spectator as the Indian authorities deal with the protests as they please and as the Kashmiri youth movement transforms.

Published in The Express Tribune,  September 19^th, 2010.