Switching sides

The PML-N has dealt a fatal blow to the PPP in Balochistan, after getting 22 members of the party to defect to it.

With election season upon us, we can expect the tradition of politicians frantically joining the political party they expect will triumph, to continue and to increase in intensity. With an array of defections and alliances on display, the PML-N is expected to win the most seats in the next elections, benefitting as it is from being the biggest party in Punjab and reaping the rewards of anti-incumbent sentiment. Now the PML-N has dealt a potentially fatal blow to the PPP in Balochistan,after getting 22 high- and mid-level members of the party to defect to it. The leader of the defectors appears to be Nawabzada Lashkari Raisani, a former provincial chief of the PPP.

These defections do not necessarily mean that the PML-N will sweep Balochistan in the elections. Although the separatist parties may once again boycott the polls, there is a chance that many of those who harbour sympathy for the nationalist cause will vote against the PML-N, since it has now inducted many politicians hated by the nationalists. Elections in Balcohistan also tend to be fought on the basis of kinship rather than party and, in many cases, family members run against each other to ensure that the seat stays in the family. As happened after the last elections, party affiliation came to mean little as all the members of the Balochistan Assembly simply decided to sit in government and award themselves ministries.

The effect of these moves is more likely to be felt on the macro level. The PML-N has established itself as the front runner to form the next government and this momentum could end up sustaining itself as more politicians throw their lot in with it. So far, the only province where the PML-N does not appear to have much chance is Sindh, where it will be hard for it to hurt the PPP’s electoral fortunes. But the rest of the country is up for grabs and the PML-N is in prime position to take advantage of this developing situation.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 7^th, 2013.