Investors wait to see what course the economy will take after polls.
With just few weeks left in the tenure of present assemblies, everybody is looking forward to the formation of a new government. Since politics and economy are interwoven, investors are also keenly following economic agendas of different political parties to assess what course the economy will take in the near future.
While most political and business analysts are convinced that the country will have a coalition government this time too, there is still a lot of interest among investors who are waiting to see which political party leads the coalition.
Whichever government comes, business analysts say the investors will be more concerned with how it deals with the challenges of law and order, energy shortage and corruption. They say though nothing much will change in the first six months as far as economy is concerned, at least investors will get an idea of the government’s direction.
Which party enjoys more investor confidence?
“Investors have no concern which political party comes and which goes, what they want is a consistent economic policy,” said Faisal A Rajabali, Nominee Director of Ali Hussain Rajabali Limited, a brokerage firm at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE).
A significant increase in share prices on the KSE over the last one year shows that investors have accepted the fact that they have to live and deal with coalition governments. As Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) or Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) will most probably form the coalition government with their partners, people are now more focused on policies instead of any specific party name, he added.
“PPP and PML-N are big parties and we cannot compare them with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), a smaller party that may or may not get a significant number of seats in the National Assembly,” commented an analyst of a brokerage house in Karachi, but did not want to be named.
Even though PTI’s economic team has presented its economic agenda forcefully, it will not be in a position to impact policymaking in Islamabad because of its small size, the analyst believed.
“I do not think anything significant will happen after the general election,” Atif Zafar, analyst at JS Global Capital Limited, another brokerage firm, said. “Whichever political party comes to power, it will have to take tough decisions on tackling energy crisis, law and order and corruption.”
It will also have to decide whether Pakistan should knock the doors of IMF again. This is an immediate issue, rest of the economic matters are secondary, he added.
What trade bodies and corporate sector are thinking
“We are not supporting any specific party. What we want from leading parties is to seriously look into our research work and talk in concrete terms,” said Kamran Y Mirza, Chief Executive of the Pakistan Business Council (PBC), a think tank of 42 leading national and international corporate giants.
PBC has been active in negotiations with top political parties in order to develop and implement a single economic agenda that is not disturbed with the change of government.
“We are in constant touch with all leading political parties and discussing their economic agenda,” Mirza said.
“We as a trade body do not directly interfere in politics. Many of our members have affiliations with political parties, but it does not mean that the leadership of FPCCI meddles in political affairs,” Haji Fazal Kadir Sherani, President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) said while sharing the Federation’s views on the election.
Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) President Muhammad Haroon Agar made it clear that KCCI as a trade body does not want to play a direct role in election.
“We have invited all political parties to the chamber to review their economic agenda. Some of them like PTI and MQM did come, but most have not showed up. This is enough from our side and we do not want to go any further,” he added.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 18th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (14)
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Though I am not a supporter of PML-N but most businessmen I talked to are expecting Nawaz to come in power as he is considered business friendly. Imo, one of the reasons for recent upsurge in the equity market is also this expectation.. I have discussed this across a wide cross-section and am surprised to see the angling in this story that business is not concerned whoever comes in, or maybe the business community does not want to be so explicit to keep their neutrality, at-least apparently...
@zain ul Abideen: What difference does it make; Mr. Shafqat Mahmood, Shah Mahmood Qurishi, Mr. Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Sharif Brotheran, Liaqqat Balooch of 1980s and 1990 are the spokesman of today's politics. There is only one exception the spokesman of PPP changed lot in last more than four decades of their political history. Many stalwarts have changed in last its four decades of its history. Rana Sanullah and many other Jialahs are spokesmen of someone. The result will be the same in today's politics as well.
A Peshawary
@Ayesha Bhaalay:
May be stop impinging in vacuum to shed off you agonies of living against you imaginations. These charts were and are part of the media game since the day this government is in place yet they have completed five years "The curse of Democracy" to many literate ones. Every body including you and me survived living under unimaginable environments and may live the same way for rest of our life what ever the outcome of the elections may be. Perhaps it will be the change of faces having no effect on the live of ordinary people in the streets.
A Peshawary
Again PPP in Sindh and PML-N in Punjab will form respective governments. Nothing will change in Pak...........'
Good Luck Pakistan
The second term of democracy will be better with checks and balances with PTI playing a big role of opposition in in NA as well as in Punjab Assemblies. . Army's say inn the foreign policy too will reduce to a great extent . In all the four provinces and the federal level coalition government is expected to be formed .
President of the country involving in the political activities under the parliamentarian democratic set up will be unacceptable after the election and ruling party leader shall have to contend with the post of PM with a more or less neutral personality as President of Pakistan ( restricting his/ her activities as non political)
This is 2013 not the late 1990s.
@Ayesha Bhaalay: You think a change in government will magically fix power cuts? Pakistan's economic situation is such that we'll continue to have power cuts for at least another 10 years.
PML(N)'s new government will create best environment for investors. It has done before and it will do again. PML(N)'s leaders have experience and passion to complete development projects. They also possess very close relationships with Arab and Turkish governments which are necessary for future development of Pakistan. There is no better analyst of the political and economic environment than an investor. Please don't waste your vote on small parties.
@Ayesha Bhaalay:Then remind yourself that all the load shedding has roots in Musharraf's rule when nothing was added to the energy grid in 9 years. I think you forget that it is impossible for any government to undue the mistakes of 9 years of dictatorship with a 5 year mandate. In the long run it is only the democratic system that will build strong institutions and a strong economy- whether it is PTI, ANP, PPP or PML(N). I agree with the assessment it is a consistent strong strategic plan that matters but that should be the work of a string bureaucracy.
These charts show a very sad picture. I can't imagine living another 5 years under PPP's regime again. The horrors of 18 hour loadshedding in june sends a cold chill down my spine :(
PML N will come and bring in accountability .
All these nefarious characters involved in NICL will be brought , including Moonis Elahi , Qasim Dada, etc . Amin Fahim will also be tried .
Government will be more prsecutorial and less 'mok-moka' and that is what's desperately needed for Karachi. PML N is the only clean party able to clean all the filth from Karachi .
Mega projects will come bank . Shahbaz will be water and power mister , where he will great imagination and urgency to providing water conservation and electricity generation . Nawaz Sharif will be a no nonsense PM. Punjab will have Ahsan Iqbal as chief minister.
Comment from KCCI President is enough to expose the intentions and quality of people with two main political parties....it frutare shows that these two Political parties are only interested in power....
I stopped reading at sentence where it says PTI is a small party. this analysis is totally in favor of N league specially in punjab with whooping over 200 seats, even PPP is popular then PTI there which is totally opposite. horrendous
very coarse.