The writer is a columnist. He is also a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar
aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
Speaking about the neighbours, he said anti-Israeli sentiment was higher in the population than in the military leaderships. Dictators were more alert to self-interest and less driven by passion. It was the people that were the real threat.
Did he mean that democracy in Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt, Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, Abdullah’s Jordan and Saddam Hussain’s Iraq was against Israeli interests? Yes, the colonel said quite brazenly,
The same question can be asked in Pakistan this election year. Will democracy be against American interests?
The Pakistani population is against the war in the tribal areas. A Gallup poll, a few days ago, showed that an astonishing 92 per cent of Pakistanis had a negative view of the United States leadership, fuelled by drone strikes. Astonishing, given how many Pakistanis have family relations in that country.
Of the three national parties contesting elections in a few months, only Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf believes violence in Pakistan will end if the army vacates the tribal areas and America is forced to end drone attacks. In this, he has the support of the Urdu press and its columnists, who present a consensus against Pakistani participation in America’s war. Imran is also thought to have the support of the establishment, which is seen as reluctant to fight the Taliban. If the anti-Americanism of Pakistanis is applicable to its soldiers, Imran’s view is that of the ordinary jawans and perhaps, also the field officers. But that is not what is meant when the word establishment is used. It is the army chief and his generals who determine threats and act against them.
Are they reluctant to fight the war they are in?
It is difficult to swallow the idea that it is President Asif Ali Zardari who’s forcing Pakistan’s generals to fight and lose dozens of men each month against their will. This is what we have to accept if we concede that the army is backing Imran for a change in policy.
The facts show that General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and the majority of his generals are convinced that the problem is internal. It is they, not so much President Zardari and the government, which are worried about the Taliban threat and are acting against it. It is likely the jawans — who don’t have access to the data and the thinking of the generals — don’t feel this way and aren’t enthusiastic about fighting. This explains the oblique manner in which the campaign has been explained by the army. It doesn’t own the war entirely because large parts of it are unconvinced, rightly or wrongly, about the logic of fighting an enemy that claims the Pakistan Army is being used by America as a mercenary force.
But it has stuck through it and, truth be told, acted maturely in recent skirmishing with old enemy India, because its focus is elsewhere.
If this is true, the generals would not want an anti-American Imran to win. Certainly, they would not be backing him. They would rather the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) win or the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remain in power because these parties don’t really cross the army.
This has come from experience. Both the PPP and the PML are happy to leave large parts of strategy with the army and this has always been the case. It is General (retd) Pervez Musharraf who precipitated the crisis against Nawaz Sharif through Kargil. Then taking offence and, like Cornelius Sulla, brought the soldiers into the capital over what was a personal matter.
On the other hand, it was Sharif who initially extended General (retd) Musharraf’s tenure. President Zardari extended General Kayani’s tenure and Yousaf Raza Gilani said it was, in fact, the government that wanted to keep him for another three years. This isn’t the sort of behaviour that would get the army chief plotting to have the ruling party replaced.
The indications are that Imran isn’t the army’s man. This means the support he has for his anti-Americanism is real. And if — unlikely as I think the prospect is — this is turned into votes, democracy in Pakistan this year might show itself to be against America’s interests.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 17th, 2013.
COMMENTS (29)
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@sabi: Good thinking, but not quite right. the military doctrine from the outset has been that if the civlian Govt. is unable to maintain law and order in the country and require the use of the military force to rule, then they have not the right to rule. The miitary brass must take over and declare the martial law. Because of the American war on terror in Afghanistan and in the border region the exceptio was made by the military allowing Bhutto/Zardari civilian coup keeping Kyani as the head of the miitary for the interim period. The statements of IK and those of the retired military brass will provide the clue. Bhutto/Zardari Govt. is the one time transition in the country.
Rex Minor
The Isreali Colonel was right and Gen Kayani, if the author's contention is correct, is right too. If the public opinion is that Pak army should not attack the Taliban with full force then it is bad news. I always said and say it again, the nations are not under any serious threats from the extremists (because there are so few of them), but from the moderates. It is the moderates who are most likely to change their opinions and develop a mindset similar to the taliban. They, the moderates form a CRITICAL mass of a society. When they begin to sympathise with the extremists, the nation is in trouble. The whole milk becomes yoghurt, viscosity increases but fluidity decreases. When the critical mass is reached as in matters nuclear, the implosion is likely to happen. Imran Khan has sympathy for the Taliban and that could be a problem for Pakistan. PML(N) are not too distant from IK in this regard. Purely from this angle, Pakistan's best bet is PPP minus a few. Best option is a National Unity Government where all three major parties have participation.
This is a very weak analysis of history of Pakistan civil military relationships.Every 'civil disobedience' has resulted in imposition of martial law.Now 'bloody civilions' are slowly learning to live in water with crocodile.What fascist agenda, Generals have found difficult to implement in this land of pure, IK has taken it as challange-where is then clash of intrests? PPP or NS may put their head down but will certainly not leave any chance to hit at Generals when possible.The more politicle parties are geting mature more are becoming threat to establishment hold on this land.
Let us make this very very clear. There is no democracy in the USA nor is there in Pakistan nor anywhere in the world. So what does exist in the USA and elsewhere in the world? "Opium of the masses" called democracy. Who calls it democracy? Those well known to be compulsive "Liars". Are the people in the USA "free and democractic"? No. Not a chance. Once again the people of the USA are fed "Opium of the masses" by the same compulsive "Liars". Today, as we all can see that the people of the USA are being robbed of their hard earned tax dollars in broad day light by abusing their tax dollars in pusuit of those phoney wars for which a very honest and decorated US Genral called "War is a racket". The US population have always been kept terrorised and thus subdued, today the excuse is phoney Al Qaeda where in previuos such campaign it was phoney Viet Cong. Besides that the US population endured a "Regn of terror" in late 1940s and early 1950s by launching another phoney campaign of terror also known as Mac Carthyism. There are utterly lots of ways the US population is kept subdued and unable to demand democracy or justice. In any case democracy is of the people, by the people, for the people and as we all can see it is neither in the USA nor in Pakistan nor anywhere else as nowhere the people can be seen to be organising themselves to bring about the rule of democracy. Democracy is the true and effective representation of the masses throough their organised and peaceful participation. No one has worked to bring about democracy as such there is no democracy and there never will be. Not until people organise and work to have it.
Imran Khan's party still needs to be accepted on a national level in Pakistan a standing that to a large extent is enjoyed by the Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People's Party. Secondly the two major parties the Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People's Party are experienced with regard to governance of that nation. The people of Pakistan unless carried away by a glib propaganda will share a greater degree of confidence in these two parties rather than Imran Khan and his political party. This is what it looks like. There are people who do enjoy an aura and charisma but need not necessarily be good administrators. Imran's efficiency as an administrator is not yet known or tested and at this hour when Pakistan is passing through a challenging phase the people may not like to risk the nations future in the hands of a person who does have the desired administrative experience. Tehreek-e-Insaaf as a political party can get elected with majority at the provincial level and rule but should not be tried at this hour at the federal level. A more stable government at the federal level should prove most fruitful for Pakistan. Hence, the the Pakistan electorate needs to vote with care and caution as they carry a great responsibility on their shoulders.
@Falcon "As a whole, I disagree with parts of the article (specially your view that PTI thinks .....blah..blah). Other than that, you have made a very rare and insightful observation that many ...."
A typical 'canned' response by a PTI wallah. He disagrees with everything that is 'crtical' of IK but agrees wholeheartedly with anything, howsoever lame, that shows IK in a good steed! This a typical, most dangerous cultist and fascist mentality of PTI and its followers.
"A Gallup poll, a few days ago, showed that an astonishing 92 per cent of Pakistanis had a negative view of the United States leadership, fuelled by drone strikes. Astonishing, given how many Pakistanis have family relations in that country."
Pakistanis also have families and love and happily lap up all the 'benefits' that UK, USA, Canada,France, the Netherlands etc. have to offer. But 'Jiss thali mein khana ussi mein chhed karna' is a habit that dies hard!
"The facts show that General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and the majority of his generals are convinced that the problem is internal."
I beg to differ. The only reason why the officer class is now reluctantly seem to be fighting the 'assets' is that their 'assets' have dared to attack the areas of general and official classe's daily domain/comfort zones. Thus making it dangerous, for any officer of the pakistani army/armed forces to even don the official uniform and walk around in public, even in 'safe' cities like islamabad, pindi and lahore!!
As anybody with even a cursory knowledge of what is happening in pakistan in last 10-20 yrs could have concluded the nature of 'internal' threat to pakistan.
Aakar do you believe that what Imran is saying he will do once in power? I think it will be something like "Jo mein kehta hun wo mein karta hun. Aur jo mein nahin kehta hun wo me definitely karta hun."
All the dictators of middle east also do the same. While they tell US and Israel that they are with them, behind the seen they fan anti american sentiments in public to have better bargaining power with US and Israel. Until people start understanding this nothing is going to change.
@Ejaaz: Your rebuttal is certainly not of the usual high standard that one has come to expect from you. Ad hominem attacks do not an argument make nor is there any evidence that Mr. Patel is a standard bearer of Indian opinion - whether you think we are know-it-alls or know-nothings. BTW, I do not agree with the argument advanced by Mr. Patel either and have expressed why I disagree in a separate argument.
First of all IK chances of getting into power are remote and secondly the security issues in Pakistan are dealt with by the army with the civilians having a minimal role in it so even if IK comes into power he cant make the army to change its policies.The only option for him is to follow the security policies as decided by the army if he wants to survive in power.
Imran Khan's party still needs to be accepted on a national level in Pakistan a standing that to a large extent is enjoyed by the Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People's Party. Secondly the two major parties the Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People's Party are experienced with regard to governance of that nation. The people of Pakistan unless carried away by a glib propaganda will share a greater degree of confidence in these two parties rather than Imran Khan and his political party. This is what it looks like. There are people who do enjoy an aura and charisma but need not necessarily be good administrators. Imran's efficiency as an administrator is not yet known or tested and at this hour when Pakistan is passing through a challenging phase the people may not like to risk the nations future in the hands of a person who does have the desired administrative experience. Tehreek-e-Insaaf as a political party can get elected with majority at the provincial level and rule but should not be tried at this hour at the Federal level.
Bottom line: No matter who comes to power in Pakistan, they are not in power.
I see signs of cowardice in the Army for even entertaining ideas of talks with the Taliban. Has the Indian Army ever proposed talking to the Islamic Militants in Kashmir? Never!
@John B: When I started reading your comments on ET a year ago, I used to get impressed. However, I have realized over time that sound analysis of Pakistan's political and social structure is not your forte.
One thing is sure that next general election in Pakistan will decide the fate of the nation for decades to come. But it also depends on whether the election will he held before or after the American pull out, to see the real ramifications.
Why worry about American interests when Pakistan's interests are in jeopardy. The interest of the two nations have diverged. It is high time to focus on national interest. Pakistan has lost too much by subordinating to America. In any case American people are as hostile to Pakistan as Pakistanis are to America. This relationship will not endure well beyond American withdrawal from Afghanistan. It has been a transactional alliance and to view it any other way is delusional. Other parties have had their opportunities to do some good and they failed miserably. It is time to give Imran Khan a chance. He is not a messiah but may turn out one compared to Mr. Zardari.
Goog analysis, but only true democracy will give the people of Pakistan, Pakistn comes first not America in Pakistan. In this election there will be a match between ant-Pakistn ( pro-America) and pro-Pakistan ( anti- America).
One more Indian taking stock of Pakistan. I wonder why south Asians comment about neighbor's internal matters while they can't learn to rule respective countries even after 60+ yrs of independence. One is full of corruption and other is full of violence
"Democracy in Pakistan this year might show itself to be against America’s interests."
I have listened to many interview by IK (mostly English media though) and he never says he is against US, but he's rather pro Pakistan. I don't think anyone should have an issue with his stand including the US government. Being a Pakistani living in US, I obviously want best relations between two countries (because the differences are between states and not people), but not at the expense of Pakistan getting more destabilized. There has to be a mutual ground somewhere, we just need smart and sensible policymakers in Pakistan to find it. Democracy, diplomacy and smart governance (and not jingoism) is the answer to this conundrum.
Perceptive for once Aakar SK, Navi Mumbai
Dear Aaker You are right to a certain extent but you are completely ignoring the schism in Pakistan army and establishment.Mr Captan Imran Khan getting a support from Zia-Gul group of Army and establishment which is staunchly anti american , anti indian, pro jehadi with neo-salafi inclination. The seizing of power by Imran Khan or any other western educated ones who despite their beardless faces and western life style posesses non rational theological world view is more or less equally significant as if the control of strategic arsenals goes directly to Zia-Gul group of Khaki establishment rather then its perfect puppet Imran Khan.
You are using the word Taliban to describe afghan Taliban when referring to the survey. The army has never fought them despite the billions it received for that purpose. The army is fighting TTP which is attacking Pakistanis. In light of.this, your conclusions really have weak foundation of facts.
Well the author missed one important point. USA is withdrawing from the war and is supporting negotiations with enemies. Imran would come very handy in such circumstances as he has reach deep into tribal belt .
the longest lines for US visas will be from Pakistanis. AKA Hypocracy
"Astonishing, given how many Pakistanis have family relations in that country."
The fact that you find it Astonishing, tells that you do not have a clue about Pakistanis or Americans for that matter, and you reveal yourself as just another "know it all" Indian.
First, everyone wants to root out terrorism but question is are we creating more terrorists than we are taking out? Case in point, operations in Bajur agency. The whole area was leveled. Our gardener lost his home and got no compensation. Now the terrorists are dispersed and a whole group of people have lost their way of life. The resentment created in locals will produce even more Taliban-sympathizers. So who is benefiting?
Second, I am for drone strikes but there should be openness and oversight. According to NYT, anyone who dies in a drone strike including children and women is declared Taliban combatants unless proven otherwise. No one asks for evidence if they were or not.
Third, you and I live in a connected world, people we are fighting don't. According to a survey, 92% of Afghans never heard of 9/11. Waziristan is no different. To them America is like Russia so its easy to believe Taliban propaganda and commit suicide bombing (Jihad) within Pakistan.
Again, I want terrorism rooted out, like all Pakistanis, but we won't get anywhere with our current approach. You can believe otherwise and blame the Urdu press.
As a whole, I disagree with parts of the article (specially your view that PTI thinks American withdrawal and drone elimination will end violence, I believe PTI has different violence containment proposals for KPK / FATA, Balochistan, and Karachi). Other than that, you have made a very rare and insightful observation that many people usually don't pay attention to, which is that it is not the politicians in Pakistan that have been traditionally pro-U.S, it has been army's top cadre who have been American pets...going by that logic, there is no way on earth, establishment will back IK. However, there is one additional point to consider; pro-China lobby is making headway into higher ranks of military and Chinese would love to have someone like IK in Pakistan because of his pro-socialism orientation.
Right on!
http://x-bts.blogspot.com/2011/11/imran-khan-did-not-criticize-army_08.html
But of course Imran is a realist? No matter how much he dislikes USA, he knows that Pakistan needs USA more than USA needs Pakistan. So, the question is how to channel the funding from USA in a more positive direction than the military?
Everyone outside of PAK knows that IK is propped up and funded by Mullah schools and gullible face book youths who are funding him. He gave an excellent speech in Lal Masjid before the chaos!
The lower ranks and foot soldiers of PAK army are sympathizers of "neo--islamists" is a known fact. If PTI comes to power, by miracle, it is the long awaited Arab spring in PAK, and it will be like Egypt once he is sworn in.
Regarding PAK democracy and America, PAK has no choice in this matter as Mursi is facing now in Egypt. So, no sweat.
Winning the election or staging a coup is the easy part; paying the salary is the hard part!