Analysis: Is Qadri’s flight ready for crash landing?

It is getting increasing hard for Qadri to keep up with the hype that initially caused mass panic in the country.

Minhajul Quran International chief Tahirul Qadri is likely to cut short his solo flight in the public arena and make a crash-landing at D-Chowk, after both opposition parties and the governing coalition stuck to their guns. They rejected his demands for the government to quit immediately and for a caretaker administration to be set up in consultation with the military and judiciary.

As Qadri desperately waits for the premier’s arrest to give his thousands of followers something to cheer about, it is getting increasingly hard for the self-proclaimed “Messiah” of the Pakistani people to keep up with the hype that initially caused mass panic in the country.

Be that as it may, it’s not smooth sailing for the government just yet. The government can give new life to the movement if they attempt to disperse the protesters by “force.” The “wait and watch” policy adopted by the ruling coalition has paid off so far, while keeping him politically isolated has also helped the government’s “democratic” image.

But some in the administration have other plans in mind. Certain members of the ruling administration have already begun considering the option of an operation in the backdrop of recent demands made by opposition parties. However, the government doesn’t have to go that far back to remember how one operation by its predecessor administration paved the way for its eventual fall.

The Lal Masjid operation, despite having support from the media and sections of civil society, resulted in the killing of hundreds and the Musharraf government was held solely responsible for the incident – a similar error is something Qadri needs urgently to fuel his movement.



At this point, considering Qadri’s isolation in the political sphere, an operation against protesters should be at the bottom of the government’s list of how to deal with him.  The main opposition parties not only rejected his demands but also termed his Long March “unconstitutional” – leaving the dual national in an awkward position in front of his highly committed workers including young women and children.

The influential scholar has also suffered other blows in recent days on the political front; his attempt to lure PTI chief Imran Khan failed miserably, while leaders such as Sheikh Rasheed and the Chaudhrys of Gujrat simply backed out at their own convenience. Even MQM did not choose to revisit its last-minute decision to withdraw itself from the long march.

The move to reject the use of force is probably the only thing keeping Qadri at bay for now. An operation would not only elevate his status, but also damage the ruling party’s image before the upcoming polls.

Be that as it may, the government is still at a loss and divided over how to deal with Qadri.  As the unprecedented sit-in entered its fourth day, Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira mocked Qadri while rejecting his demands. However, the seemingly confident Kaira looked perplexed when asked how the government would handle Qadri and his fervent supporters in the coming days.

“We are democratic people and we will never use force. But media can play a role in asking him to call off his sit-in,” said a helpless Kaira.

Today will be a crucial day for both the government and the ‘saviour’ of his followers. With Qadri and his sea of supporters looking to save face and determined to bring a “revolution”, anything is possible.

While Qadri may have a few options at his disposal, including ones that may end in bloodshed, the best option for the government is to look towards the sky and hope that the Met department’s predication of rain materialises and helps disperse Qadri’s supporters.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 17^th, 2013.