The Afghanistan debacle

Pakistan shall be left to pick up the pieces in Afhganistan, while US will be desperate to invent a notion of victory.

The recent report titled, “Report on progress toward security and stability in Afghanistan” by the Pentagon faults Pakistan for undermining security in Afghanistan. Rather than competing in the finger-pointing contest, we’d be better served by looking at the facts. The situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated and the military coalition is unravelling as countries pull out. The Taliban have become more cohesive and have control of rural Afghanistan. No written policy has ever come to light about Afghanistan, officials and administrations have changed and so have their tactics. It began with the surge operations where the US stated that it would whack the Taliban to the table. Failure of that strategy led to the negotiated approach which was destined for failure since both sides had preconditions. Then began the idea of a bottom-up approach in Afghanistan, effectively asking the lower tiers to integrate without addressing the leadership. Now, there has been a shift to reconciliation involving the leadership in a top-down approach, where the Haqqanis must be brought to the table but are also listed as a terrorist organisation. Meanwhile, the Taliban are expected to participate in the upcoming elections in Afghanistan but the US has stated that if the Taliban choose to stay away, then they must not disrupt the process and accept the results. This is highly naive since the Taliban do not recognise the Constitution and they have nothing to gain from such demands.

This brings us to Pakistan; a country led by a dysfunctional government with a populace lost in search of its identity. The nation, having forgotten the ethos for its inception, is now at the mercy of sectarian, ethnic, provincial and linguistic polarisation. Torn between extremism and an artificial ideology based on spirituality, the people are exploited in the name of religion, caste and creed. Intolerance is the nature, violence the character of routine life. As the economy slides in a suicidal plunge, the infrastructure is collapsing and the energy crisis is slowly starving the country into paralysis. The situation bodes ominously for the future. Will the country break up into fiefdoms or will it continue to be a global pariah with grandiose illusions of establishing an Islamic ummah?

Democracy may have many different styles and methods but the modern one that is generally followed in the West is highly unsuited to Pakistan. The pulls and pushes of the feudal system still exist in Pakistan and the exploitation of religion remains an equation in deciding a vote. The lack of education keeps society hostage to rumour and superstition, where the populace votes for local authority or spiritual commonality and not on the basis of administrative or political sense. Keep in mind that it took 150 years of US history for Native Americans to earn the right to vote. Dramatic change doesn’t happen overnight. With misinformation spread so wide and far among the uneducated, the highly corrupt and incompetent Government of Pakistan will not simply go away in the next election.

Perhaps, a technocrat government as a product of a democratic government may be the answer for Pakistan. The international community can assist Pakistan in rewriting its Constitution, since the current one is a failure. This new Constitution should be moderate and acceptable as a political instrument and not an ideological one. Looted funds need to be sought from the world over and put back into the economy. The Durand Line must be recognised and developed as a trade regulating border with the revenue to be distributed amongst the tribes for their development. Finally, a UN peacekeeping force in Afghanistan consisting of peacekeepers from Turkey, China and the Middle East might be the solution to stabilising Afghanistan.

I always wanted the US to succeed in Afghanistan since it would have had a far-reaching impact on the future ‘way of life’ and it was only the US which could have achieved it. Unfortunately, it never treated Pakistan as a serious partner. Both are at fault and now, Pakistan shall be left to pick up the pieces, while the US will be desperate to invent a notion of victory. The foolishness on both parts is telling, terrible and was utterly avoidable.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 13^th, 2012.