We can contemplate two extreme possibilities, each of which will have enormous consequences for Pakistan. On one end of the probability spectrum, it can be assumed that the country will settle down after the withdrawal of foreign troops. Most of the violence is directed at foreign troops and the Afghans that support them. According to this scenario, various segments of the diverse Afghan society will find a way of working with one another, preferably, within a political framework that will be representative and durable. Once politically settled, the Afghans will begin to rebuild their war-ravaged economy, reduce dependence on foreign support and exploit the country’s enormous mineral potential. A Pentagon study estimated the potential of mineral deposits at one trillion dollars. It covers a number of minerals, including iron, copper, gold and platinum. Some of the mineral veins extend into Pakistan, especially in the country’s south. There is considerable foreign interest in getting to these deposits and foreign involvement will draw Afghanistan even closer to Pakistan.
If we move to the other side of the probability spectrum, a very grim picture could be painted about Afghanistan’s future. According to this, the civil war that followed the pull-out by the Soviet Union will look like a picnic when the United States and its allies leave. The assumption that a very large Afghan force of more than 300,000 soldiers will be able to take charge of security will prove to be highly optimistic. There are already signs that the force that has been built up by the Americans, working with their European allies, may not have the cohesiveness and have it remain loyal to the state. Instead, the moment the American umbrella is removed, we will see this force fracture.
Washington’s promise to pay $1.4 billion a year to sustain a large force will not amount to much after the pull-out is complete. The Americans are faced with a serious fiscal problem, in which all expenditures are being looked at to reduce the enormous burden of debt the economy carries. Providing such a large amount of support to Afghanistan for a long period of time will be one of the first commitments to fall by the wayside. Heavily armed men not certain that they will continue to receive their salaries will begin to seek the support of the numerous warlords in various parts of the country. If the Soviet Union’s departure resulted in a civil war with half a dozen contenders, there will be many more this time around. The conflict among them will be bloodier than the war that ended with the triumph of the Taliban in 1996. This time, the Taliban will be one of the active participants in the fight from the very beginning. The northern and central areas will come under the control of other social and ethnic groups. The Tajiks and the Uzbeks will control the northeast and the groups that have the support of Iran will dominate the west. This possible division of Afghanistan into three parts will create an extremist state right on the border with Pakistan. That state will continue using its ideological force to destabilise the areas south of the border, which will have serious economic and political consequences for the state and the people of Pakistan.
Which way Afghanistan goes will matter for Pakistan. Those who have chronicled Pakistan’s economic past may have overlooked Afghanistan as a contributing factor.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 12th, 2012.
COMMENTS (17)
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@Zalmai: Some of the people have just expressed their fears but rest assured no one in Pakistan wants any harm to be done to the unity of Afghanistan. As a matter of fact many of us have picked up this possibility (God forbid) from the analysis of number of American analysts who are quite authoritatively expressing this fear. Otherwise we in Pakistan would be more than happy to see a stable and united Afghanistan because our own stability is linked with the stability of Afghanistan and vice versa. This very important reality of geography and religo- ethnic relationships must be understood by the people at the helm of affairs in Afghanistan. If you look into the pages of history you will realize that Pakistan has always been Afghanistan's backyard. In other words for Afghans, Pakistan has been their second home. Even today many Afghan parliamentarians and common citizens have their houses and business in major cities of Pakistan. Pakistan provides the transit trade route which is as a matter of fact Afghanistan's life line. The only impediment, to my mind, to the brotherly relationship of the two countries is Afghanistan's long history of becoming part of the conspiracies against the solidarity of Pakistan. The only period in our history when Afghanistan did not support the Pakistani dissidents was the period when Taliban were holding the fort in Kabul. Pakistan is also suspicious of Afghanistan's close relationship with India. As a sovereign country Afghanistan is entitled to have close relationship with any country of the world but not at the cost of security concerns of your immediate neighbour otherwise you may have good relations with a distant neighbour but you will have problems with the next door neighbour with whome is linked your future as a stable and prosperous country. As for as the question of Pashtunes being in the driving seat is concerned, I don't think majority of Pakistani Pashtunes will buy your claim. Today your bureaucracy, Army, Police and intelligence services are all dominated by the people from the North. On this issue I shall not go any further because this is Afghanistan's internal problem and I am sure in times to come this will also be rationalized.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Pakistani analysts propagate the state narrative etched into their brains by the establishment without any understanding of ground realities in Afghanistan. This is not the 70, 80s or the 90s and wishful thinking of Afghanistan disintegrating into three parts is a pipe dream that Pakistan has been concocting for three decades.
The current crop of politicians, warlords and security apparatus and civil society are actively promoting unity, peace, and economic development through cohesive policies to ward off regionalism, factionalism and warlordism and these realities are lost on the average Pakistani.
Pashtuns in Afghanistan are in the driver's seat and the rest of the Afghans are along for the ride. Only Pakistanis think that Pashtuns in Afghanistan are marginalized because their state narrative sells this false propaganda to rationalize their proxies and unfortunately the common Pakistani and even some intellectuals or pseudo intellectuals buy this load of crap.
Its like Jinnnah creating the division in between people of Muslims and Hindus in India ... for his own gain ... the author is creating panic ... and stirring conspiracy theory ... This is very long shot just in case Pakistan itself becomes a fail state .. Nobody wants terrorists on there doorstep .. If as somebody in the comments has mentioned that Pakhtunistan will become 5th Province of Pakistan ... then God bless Pakistan ... as the core of Taliban will be in the heart of Pakistan ... WOW then it becomes a lethal force ... as the Nuclear weapons will be in clear and present danger ....
@TightPatloon: You are simply killing me!
This is fairly objective assessment. Whether American troops posted in a few bases would be a stabilizing factor needs to be examined. At least it would keep Taliban busy.
Afghans through out have been fighting each other or attacking Indian territories.It is doubtful if they can abandon their habits.
@Ali S: the extremism came from Afghanistan, Pakistan has been interfering in Afghanistan for decades now. The state of pakistan will like nothing more than instability in Afghanitan as they benefit from afghan misery. Examples: Taliban's leadership were schooled in Pakistani Madrassas, not in afghanistan. Pakistan was raking in billions of dollar from the WEST during the Soviets invasion of Afghanista. Pakistan was receiving billions from US and Nato during their invasion of Afghanistan. Afghan refugees do not commit crimes, or use guns. Your comments are not factually correct and quiet racist.
Which way afghanistan goes will depend on A) level of intereference from outsiders, mainly Pakistan and B) whether this interference/involvement is constructive or destructive. A lot depends on how Pakistan conducts itself. An attempt on Pakistan`s part to continue or repeat the same Afghan policy thats been around for 3 decades may this time serve to be the last nail in its own coffin.
"-----exploit the country’s enormous mineral potential. A Pentagon study estimated the potential of mineral deposits at one trillion dollars. It covers a number of minerals, including iron, copper, gold and platinum.---"
Are we thinking in terms of the AFGHAN common man ? Yes , the country has vast underground minerals~~~~but the social ground reality is tat a MINING MAFIA already exists.
So, the common welfare will be forgotten, and the Mafia will grow rich.
Afghanistan may just settle down if its neighbours follow the adage : " LOVE THY NEIGHBOUR AS THINE OWN SELF"
Pakistan needs to completely dissociate itself from Afghanistan, at least on a political level. They have nothing to offer but crime, drugs, gun culture, backwardness and thanklessness. A large reason for the rapid rise of extremism in Pakistan after Zia was the influx of Afghan refugees - they're a drain on Pakistan's resources and contribute nothing.
History repeats itself. Afghanistan has always been unstable and violent and it has always been the place from where India was invaded. The part now that was most vulnerable in India is now Pakistan. Who says Partition(of India) was bad?
Bob Blackwill speaks of Partition and advocates for it. But, partition of Afghanistan is good for everyone but Pakistanis. Got a peace on the subject here.
http://peddarowdy.wordpress.com/2012/07/15/afghanistan-possibilities-and-near-certainties/
If Pakistan gives India the part of Kashmir it controls we should deny from taking it. By taking it would mean sharing a border with Afghanistan. We think sharing a border with Pakistan is bad, there can be worse things.
Afghanistan's army of 300 thousands of soldiers must have been taught discipline and a sense of nationalism/ patriotism for a better Afghanistan. Their association / training by Western persons ( mindset) will inspire them to fight the Taliban and to some extent their extremist ideology. This will not allow to repeat the scene after Soviets left. Even if Taliban become able to dominate some tough terrain of Afghanistan it will make the USA apprehensive of Taliban and their aid / support of say 1 or 2 billion of USD will continue which will be quite worthy and a non issue in terms of their economic power. Here comes the role of Pakistan to remain neutral or support/ this neighboring country. This factor may be responsible to help to solve or complicate the matter and also the stability of the region.
It was a deliberate attempt by the Americans to ignore the majority (read Pukhtuns) while reformulating the Afghanistan's national security forces and this will be the major reason that the newly trained security apparatus will crumple.This security arrangement is already being resented in the Pukhtun dominated areas because of the heavy handedness of the security forces dominated by the Tajiks,Hazaras and Uzbicks, it will not work in the future. Americans found Northerners as their allies and they depend on them to rule that country in the future but some surprises are waiting for them and the Pakistanis.The idea of security depth has not been forgotten or abandoned by the establishment in Pakistan and let us not forget the role of India in the post withdrawal of NATO forces, they have been working in tandem with the Americans. I am already dreading your 2nd probability spectrum.
For quite some time in the coming years, Afghanistan will remain in the grip of civil war. Even after the departure of US/NATO forces, Indian factor will keep our bordering destabilized unless Pakistan decides to pay back India and Afghanistan in the same coins. Reconstruction work in Afghanistan is also likely to slow down considerably and the promised 1.4 Billion by the West is likely to remain a promise unfulfilled. As for as Pakistan's economy is concerned, like before, we shall witness negative effects on account of smuggling, gun running and drugs trade. If Afghanistan wants peace and progress then it has to realize that it has to keep the anti Pakistan forces, from within and from out side, under check. It is geographic compulsion that Afghanistan will always be in need of Pakistan's cooperation for its stability and development and that is not likely to happen if it keeps on nurturing its relations with anti Pakistan forces at the cost of Pakistan's national security interests.
Division of Afghanistan into two parts is the only way to sole the problem. The Tajiks and Uzbeks in North and Pashtuns in the south. This of course can create more headaches for Pakistan but if Pak plays its cards well the Pakhtun dominated Afghanistan can become the 5th province of Pak
Do you guys even listen? Its been stated for a couple years now. It's not a full withdrawal. You guys keep talking as if it is. The Soviets picked up and left because they were defeated which left a lot of things hanging. The US/NATO are lessening unnecessary forces to integrate the Afghan military. They're not just having it all tossed in their lap, told to have fun and abandoned. You're going to have to come to someday come to terms with the fact you didn't beat the Soviets on your own and you haven't beaten anyone this time around. If you're making predictions you want to have some worth, at least.
That state will continue using its ideological force to destabilise the areas south of the border, which will have serious economic and political consequences for the state and the people of Pakistan. Surely you jest, Burki sb. I think replacing 'south' with 'north' and Pakistan with Afghanistan may be closer to the truth.