Tale of the states that will decide White House race

Romney trails Obama in many states but retains a narrow and plausible path to 270 electoral votes needed to win.

The White House race has narrowed to a fight over less than 10 states ahead of Tuesday’s tight election between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

The Republican challenger trails the president in polls in many of the battleground states but retains a narrow and plausible path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Here is the state of play in swing states that will decide whether Obama wins a second term, or Romney recaptures the White House for Republicans.

The number of electoral votes each state has is in brackets.

OBAMA’S LAST LINE OF DEFENcE 

If Obama wins Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and avoids any upsets on his turf, he is all but certain to become only the second Democrat to win two White House terms since World War II.

Ohio (18)

In most recent polls, Obama led Ohio between two and five points, an ominous sign for Romney, as no Republican since the Civil War has lost the state and gone on to win the White House.

Obama touts his bailout of the indebted auto industry in 2009 and Romney’s opposition to it, as one-in-eight jobs in the state are linked to the sector.

Wisconsin (10)

Wisconsin has been solid Democratic territory for years: the last time a Republican won the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

But Republicans, who managed to repel an attempt by Democrats to oust Governor Scott Walker in a recall election this year, have a solid ground game in the state, and Romney’s running mate Paul Ryan is a local boy.

Iowa (6)

Where it all started for Obama. The president built his grass roots operation in the agricultural heartland state and believes that after carving out an advantage in early voting, he has the edge on Romney.

UP FOR GRABS

Florida (29)

The Sunshine State, the largest electoral battleground, is often decisive in presidential elections, but may not be the kingmaker this time. But Obama is competing fiercely there because if he wins, it is all but impossible for Romney to take the White House.

A punishing foreclosure crisis and an unemployment rate higher than the national average have many analysts expecting Florida to swing to Romney.

Obama has led several recent polls however, and if he can get a bumper turnout in Democratic strongholds in the southern part of the state, he could pull off a surprise.

Virginia (13)

Neither side seem to know whether the state will revert to Republicans after Obama became the first Democrat to win there since 1964.

Romney will count on old school conservatives in rural areas of the state and look to cut down on Obama’s margins with educated middle class voters in the Washington DC suburbs.

North Carolina (15)

The most likely state to move from Democratic to Republican because Obama won it by only 14,000 votes in 2008. Romney aides are certain their man will win, but the Obama camp has mobilised a massive early voting effort, which it says will keep the president competitive into election day.

Colorado (9)

Romney’s best chance to grab a western swing state. Obama is relying on women and Hispanic voters to keep him in the game here.

New Hampshire (4)

The flinty northeastern state with an independent streak knows Romney well after he served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Obama won this state, in 2008.

MAY BE OVER

Nevada (6)

The Obama campaign says it has a substantial lead after early voting which means Romney needs to win big in election day voting.

ROMNEY’S LAST STAND

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10)

Romney made a late swoop
into Pennsylvania on Sunday after ignoring the state for much of the campaign. Democrats say his move shows desperation and a recognition that he cannot get to 270 electoral votes elsewhere.

Obama aide David Axelrod is so
confident that he has offered to shave his trademark moustache if Romney wins any of the trio, including Minnesota and Michigan where Obama leads by 3.8 percent in the averages.

What to watch for on US election night

Armchair election watchers should brace themselves on Tuesday; it’s going to be a marathon. Here is a guide outlining the principle elements to look out for as President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney go toe to toe on election night.

+ POLLS OPEN:

The earliest polling stations open at 6:00 am (1100 GMT) in Virginia and New Hampshire, among other eastern states. On the West Coast, California polls open at 1500 GMT.

+ POLLS CLOSE:

Some polling sites in the east close at 6:00 pm (2300 GMT), but the first significant closures are an hour later in battleground Virginia. Everyone will be watching for early results in the state as a potential bellwether of the night ahead.

+ CONGRESS:

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are 33 seats in the Senate. Republicans are expected to hold the House. The Democrats’ 53-47 majority in the Senate is more tenuous. A race to watch is the Massachusetts battle between Republican incumbent Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren. Other key Senate contests are in Indiana, Missouri and Virginia.

+ EARLY VOTING:

More than 30 percent of Americans are expected to vote before Tuesday -- either absentee or in person.

+ RECOUNT REDUX?:

Each state has its own recount rules. In the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, some Florida counties launched recounts while others did not. With the prospect of very close results in some states, phalanxes of lawyers on each side are prepared to bring legal action, raising the potential for final result delays. AFP

Published in The Express Tribune, November 6^th, 2012.